Attachments: USD/JPY Discussion

USD/JPY Discussion

#44,781
Apr 14, 2014 2:32am Apr 14, 2014 2:32am

Mpt
Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Trader | 2,582 Posts

Quoting smash1820

Disliked

{quote} Well, I appreciate your thoughtful analysis. I just don't like posts without analysis, no offense. Because why bother posting at all then?! Respectfully, though, I will have to disagree with you. I see the resistance you are talking about at 101.65ish, but I think that can EASILY be broken, at which point, the trend (or let's say, start of a new one?) will resume upwards. The week is still young, and there is plenty of time left, which I believe works to the advantage of the bulls.

Ignored

Sorry for the delay. I was doing more important things - like having a drink. Whatever happens, I suspect it may put up a fight. And that may be very shortly.

#44,782
Apr 14, 2014 2:55am Apr 14, 2014 2:55am

eliteincome
| Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 2,640 Posts

Gidday

Fellow gamblers

Might have to take a we short 102 if it gets there

worry about my longs later.

Its way easy to sort the lemons out when the market

is buzzing.

man we need some rocket fuel ASAP

#44,783
Apr 14, 2014 5:03am Apr 14, 2014 5:03am

Exodus
Joined May 2012 | Status: CoC'd again ! | 8,578 Posts

Hey Smash, I see you have been really filling up the thread ..

Quoting smash1820

Disliked

I implore everyone here reading this to go long this week... the entire week... and you will make money... guaranteed

Ignored

To cheer your optimism here is some encouragement.
This chart shows 2 things....
1) my feckin' stupid long entry near 104....

2) what looks like healthy support at 101.

So with that in mind, plus all the fundamentals of which I have written before, I'm long again from 101.6x

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Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo

#44,784
Apr 14, 2014 6:42am Apr 14, 2014 6:42am

Trendzalore
| Joined Jan 2014 | Status: Self Taught | 851 Posts

Quoting smash1820

Disliked

{quote} Oh my god, this is SO sick. The market makers just won, by 0.8 pips, within 1 f*ing minute!!! I didn't think it was possible, but they 1-upped me. Not only does 2 minutes matter, one stupid minute can make a tremendous impact when you are trading options. I swear to god, they are out to get me tonight I am right the whole time, and I still lose money! God damnit, go figure! PS: That is why options trading is so tough, and daytrading is even tougher. You need to get the time component right, in addition to the direction.

Ignored

TOTALLY agree. I also trade options and I hate it when I miss by so close.

#44,785
Apr 14, 2014 6:50am Apr 14, 2014 6:50am

Trendzalore
| Joined Jan 2014 | Status: Self Taught | 851 Posts

Quoting Trendzalore

Disliked

After a look after this weeks close hear are my thoughts. NO trade zone is 101.39 to 101.77. This area is just chop. Break of 101.39 leads to 100.90 and then on to 99.61. I don't believe Japan wants to see below 100 so I think 100.9 zone is around as low as it goes within a few pips here or there. Break of 101.77 has a few hurdles. This goes to 102.16 but above this area is slight chop between 102.16 to 102.34. More pauses above this as well. So at this point the easier way is down. If move is down it will be sharp and fast. If move is up it will...

Ignored

Gonna bring this up one more time because price is playing right to it right now. So far 101.77 is stopping price. What may possibly happen is a break of this up to 102.03 (no higher than 102.16) before going down. Lots of little hurdles above, least path of resistance is still down. I still absolutely see 100.85-90 soon and then price will either torpedo from there or start to head back up slowly.

#44,786
Apr 14, 2014 6:52am Apr 14, 2014 6:52am

Trendzalore
| Joined Jan 2014 | Status: Self Taught | 851 Posts

Lastly my post #44339 is still valid it seems.

#44,787
Apr 14, 2014 7:33am Apr 14, 2014 7:33am

kweiss10
| Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Trader | 749 Posts

UJ already moved 70 pips today. If the good US news last week combined with todays good numbers should do wonders, then now is the time. or else its down from here.

#44,788
Apr 14, 2014 7:38am Apr 14, 2014 7:38am

Pipocrates
| Membership Revoked | Joined May 2012 | 240 Posts

its been consolidating for a so long I am expecting a move to at least the monthly pivot which is where a bit of resistance lies

#44,789
Apr 14, 2014 7:56am Apr 14, 2014 7:56am

Fx_Anil
Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,738 Posts

Higher than forecast US Retail Sales supported USDJPY test 102 level; a break above 102.20 is needed for the pair to test 103 level.

#44,790
Edited 12:04pm Apr 14, 2014 9:04am | Edited 12:04pm

artocarpus
| Joined Nov 2013 | Status: Trader | 243 Posts

no matter funtamentals or technicals or anything else the number 100 is a magnet for this pair

#44,791
Apr 14, 2014 10:10am Apr 14, 2014 10:10am

Rizmeister
| Joined Nov 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,222 Posts

Stop loss was hit at 101.7x Got some profits will reassess.

#44,792
Apr 14, 2014 11:15am Apr 14, 2014 11:15am

CrispyFries
| Joined Apr 2014 | Status: Sizzlin | 11 Posts

Afternoon all.

It seems we have hit 23.4% Fibonacci level at 102 and retreated back. During the move my buy order was triggered at 101.88 as I was expecting it to go forward after the break of the triangle formation visible in the 1H I outlined on friday.

Given the circumstance I would say the long position is still valid unless the PA breaks the 101.64 level which is now the new support (was the triangle resistance level). Also the good US data supports the upwards trend and no key JP data in sight in the short term I would say we have a pretty good odds on the long side.

Good trading week folks.

Crispy.

#44,793
Apr 14, 2014 11:53am Apr 14, 2014 11:53am

Trendzalore
| Joined Jan 2014 | Status: Self Taught | 851 Posts

Quoting Trendzalore

Disliked

{quote} So far 101.77 is stopping price. What may possibly happen is a break of this up to 102.03 (no higher than 102.16) before going down. Lots of little hurdles above, least path of resistance is still down. I still absolutely see 100.85-90 soon and then price will either torpedo from there or start to head back up slowly.

Ignored

Pretty much to the letter for the day. Could be a boring asian open at least as of now. Small blips to the downside are 101.77 then 101.59 and 101.54 and lastly 101.39-41 area. Once 101.41 is cleared, expect a sharp move down. Todays move to 102 was likely to have been profit taking from shorts and now a drop again likely. Like I said a few days ago, the train to 101.85 is moving along.

Green pips to you all

#44,794
Apr 14, 2014 4:37pm Apr 14, 2014 4:37pm

Trendzalore
| Joined Jan 2014 | Status: Self Taught | 851 Posts

Quoting Trendzalore

Disliked

{quote} Pretty much to the letter for the day. Could be a boring asian open at least as of now. Small blips to the downside are 101.77 then 101.59 and 101.54 and lastly 101.39-41 area. Once 101.41 is cleared, expect a sharp move down. Todays move to 102 was likely to have been profit taking from shorts and now a drop again likely. Like I said a few days ago, the train to 101.85 is moving along. Green pips to you all

Ignored

101.77 looks to be support. 102.16 to 102.33 next resistance. After that is 102.99. Until price is past 102.33 and stays above I will stick with the downside risk thought.

#44,795
Apr 14, 2014 10:23pm Apr 14, 2014 10:23pm