The USDCAD/CHF/JPY have all been on a strong trend down lately, however the associated TL's were all pierced either thursday or friday. The usdcad is especially interesting as it broke out on the upside thursady. The usdjpy is sidewards as it stopped at the weekly support TL and the usdchf poked its wick through the 126hr TL on the last hour of trading on friday for the first time. Additionally the gbpusd could possibly play out a daily double top as it seems to be playing out a downward bo of an hrly H&S pattern on friday (not one I would have traded but a H&S all the same).
None of this is reason for me to change my bull opinion on EU... yet. All the above may be just an end of week profit taking scenario and will be back to business as usual on monday. I will however be up at market open (sigh 5am) to watch closely the opening prices.
The beginning of the week may see a pullback but my analysis at start of last week still stands ( http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...81#post7387281 ). The Weekly mid-feb BO that pulled back to the correct level (its original BO TL) and the open of this months candle above the TL could be just the beginnings of a LT bull trend, hence last weeks sharp turn up which is an indication of any other BO on smaller TF's. My intersection for my Monthly TL is at the 1.3760 zone and weekly is at the 1.3660 zone. A daily close below the weekly zone would cancel my bulls trades and with a closed weekly candle below the TL, I would expect a (very) sharp turn down for an initial move down to the 1.3360 zone.
It needs to be noted here that I have traded similar BO's on the EU over the past 8 months or so and PA has just come back to hug the weekly TL and ends up going no where (it's been a crappy trading currency imo). The monthly TL of this BO brings in a new dimension to the trade however and I am watching the candle close with (leveraged) interest.
None of this is reason for me to change my bull opinion on EU... yet. All the above may be just an end of week profit taking scenario and will be back to business as usual on monday. I will however be up at market open (sigh 5am) to watch closely the opening prices.
The beginning of the week may see a pullback but my analysis at start of last week still stands ( http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...81#post7387281 ). The Weekly mid-feb BO that pulled back to the correct level (its original BO TL) and the open of this months candle above the TL could be just the beginnings of a LT bull trend, hence last weeks sharp turn up which is an indication of any other BO on smaller TF's. My intersection for my Monthly TL is at the 1.3760 zone and weekly is at the 1.3660 zone. A daily close below the weekly zone would cancel my bulls trades and with a closed weekly candle below the TL, I would expect a (very) sharp turn down for an initial move down to the 1.3360 zone.
It needs to be noted here that I have traded similar BO's on the EU over the past 8 months or so and PA has just come back to hug the weekly TL and ends up going no where (it's been a crappy trading currency imo). The monthly TL of this BO brings in a new dimension to the trade however and I am watching the candle close with (leveraged) interest.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
GL All and looking forward...
after all past data should be taken LOT more seriously then what's coming up.
