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  • #889,521
  • Edited 5:55am Apr 12, 2014 5:24am | Edited 5:55am
Quoting Gaviscon3
{quote} The fib ratios do not line up properly in that pattern.
Thanks for your comment.
The pattern might not be the best I have traded, however the location and nature of the Fib numbers on both 4 hours and Daily chart led to believe this is a good risk/reward trade.

The way I see it, if we are close to a reversal (due to Butterfly Sell on weekly chart) and 61.8 major resistance Monthly chart, a 78.6 Retracement up on Daily chart would be just about enough for any bear market.
If this line becomes broken upwards then and only then I would be more inclined to consider completion of major ABCD on Monthly chart at 1.4205 (Yearly pivot Resistance 1) and 1.4400 within the same formation.
My trading plan for next week stands and ideally in the near future (2 weeks maybe) we would see this ABCD completion around 1.35 on Daily chart.
If not, I will take the loss and look for another setup, after all this is only a probabilities game.
Have a good weekend.
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  • #889,522
  • Apr 12, 2014 5:50am Apr 12, 2014 5:50am
I've got shorts on at 1.3892.. fell asleep but thought 1.3840 would be hit bottom of zone then would have expected 13610 over the week... but it hid mid of zone at 1.3856 and to be fair it was an aggressive weekly candle breaking resistances on the way up.

Now hoping for a gap down but it help in the apex at 1.3856 and Monday it will have tight support so am weary on which way it goes first..... if it goes down too 1.3873 first then can see a retrace back too 1.3896 then fall down... but if it goes up first too 1.3898 then can see it holding around 1.3873 and pushing higher... All levels I seen people positing will be shorts such as 1.3985.... 1.4008 but prefer 1.4033 and major short up around 1.4070....
now time will tell what gets hit first come Monday.. hope for a gap down to 1.3840 then the short is at 1.3885 but can see it playing in a trap between 1.3898 and 1.3873 and whichever gives way will give the direction in my opinion
  • #889,523
  • Apr 12, 2014 5:53am Apr 12, 2014 5:53am
Quoting noom0121
The closure below 13880 gives major sell to EU. any contrary?
Below 1.3873 in my opinion Monday is a sell... if we hit 1.3840 then any retrace sell that's my goal and any move over 1.3898 will break high so await pullback and long I think
  • #889,524
  • Apr 12, 2014 5:53am Apr 12, 2014 5:53am
Ukraine looks like its going to get messy this weekend, protestors seized guns

pro-Russian militants have seized a second security building in the eastern Ukrainian city of Slaviansk, in the latest in a string of attacks on government offices across the region.
Gunmen stormed the city's local security service headquarters on Saturday, hours after the police headquarters was also taken.
Police said around 20 men dressed in camouflage fired several shots into the air before entering the police building.
Militants then took hundreds of guns to distribute to protesters.
Police said the same group was behind both attacks.
Ukrainian special forces have reportedly been sent to the scene.
  • #889,525
  • Apr 12, 2014 5:57am Apr 12, 2014 5:57am
Quoting ruffryders
possible scenario on EU to watch next week. LONG 3840-60 area SL 40 TP 4040 (+200). {image}
Be happy too see 1340.. if it gets there then I can see it retracing upto 75 area before continuation.... my worry for Monday is breaking 74 and if we can get too your area 1.3840 then be confident of follow through down too 1.3815..pullback too 1.3858 area and continuation too 1.3790 however, 1.3898 breaks then higher highs
  • #889,526
  • Apr 12, 2014 6:47am Apr 12, 2014 6:47am
guys, OK, you can short sell as much as you wish, however please show me on weekly chart a place, where white marubozu
wasn't followed by 200 points up move.
  • #889,527
  • Apr 12, 2014 6:48am Apr 12, 2014 6:48am
Quoting ruffryders
guys, OK, you can short sell as much as you wish, however please show me on weekly chart a place, where white marubozu wasn't followed by 200 points up move.
no pandas please.
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  • #889,528
  • Apr 12, 2014 8:02am Apr 12, 2014 8:02am
Quoting ruffryders
guys, OK, you can short sell as much as you wish, however please show me on weekly chart a place, where white marubozu wasn't followed by 200 points up move.
Change of directions, even in trend can demand a test of previous S/D zones.

Not saying it can't go higher, just saying without proper foundation a collapse is more imminent.
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  • #889,529
  • Apr 12, 2014 8:07am Apr 12, 2014 8:07am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Change of directions, even in trend can demand a test of previous S/D zones. Not saying it can't go higher, just saying without proper foundation a collapse is more imminent. {image}
that's fine, however, strong weekly close and marubozu at key support TL shift probabilities towards further UP to 3950 and possibly 4000 next week.

If we pullback to 3820-60 area first, that's fine.
  • #889,530
  • Apr 12, 2014 8:15am Apr 12, 2014 8:15am
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} that's fine, however, strong weekly close and marubozu at key support TL shift probabilities towards further UP to 3950 and possibly 4000 next week. If we pullback to 3820-60 area first, that's fine.
And then there is this...

1.39 on options defended by sellers in spot.
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  • #889,531
  • Apr 12, 2014 8:36am Apr 12, 2014 8:36am
Quoting Magix
{quote} And then there is this... 1.39 on options defended by sellers in spot. {image}
what's your point then? Yes, we all know, that D1 closed as spinning top, which indicates a pullback from the psych level @ 3900.
it doesn't indicate a start of a sell off.
  • #889,532
  • Apr 12, 2014 8:41am Apr 12, 2014 8:41am
making simple things complicated won't help. here's a quick snapshot of weekly euro. support at current uptrend obvious
and new upswing was confirmed as indicated on the chart.

some longs will be shaken out, and then EU will resume UP.
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  • #889,533
  • Apr 12, 2014 8:44am Apr 12, 2014 8:44am
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} what's your point then? Yes, we all know, that D1 closed as spinning top, which indicates a pullback from the psych level @ 3900. it doesn't indicate a start of a sell off.

My point is...that even though there is still room up, there is a possibility of a few shekkles to be shaken from the skortie tree...

You are the wanker who challenged anybody brave enough to short, all I did was provide a couple of reasons whey shorts may play out.

And lose the bold in your replies...nobody is impressed.
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  • #889,534
  • Apr 12, 2014 8:47am Apr 12, 2014 8:47am
Quoting Magix
{quote} My point is...that even though there is still room up, there is a possibility of a few shekkles to be shaken from the skortie tree... You are the wanker who challenged anybody brave enough to short, all I did was provide a couple of reasons whey shorts may play out. And lose the bold in your replies...nobody is impressed.
go back to charting school kid. You's sound/look queer to me.
  • #889,535
  • Apr 12, 2014 8:51am Apr 12, 2014 8:51am
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no worries, tripple xxx has possibility to be completely retraced.
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #889,536
  • Apr 12, 2014 8:52am Apr 12, 2014 8:52am
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} go back to charting school kid. You's sound/look queer to me.

I could school your sorry ass all day long, son.

Blowhards like you are a dime/dozen.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #889,537
  • Apr 12, 2014 9:01am Apr 12, 2014 9:01am
Gap down?

* Fresh unrest in eastern Ukraine
* Four government buildings now seized by pro-Moscow militants
* Pro-Western Kiev government promises tough response
* Protesters briefly hold part of Donetsk prosecutors office (Adds second building seized, protesters demand autonomy referendum)
If this spread_s beyond Crimea its a sell signal.

And protests at Rome right now:
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  • #889,538
  • Apr 12, 2014 9:05am Apr 12, 2014 9:05am
never thought u like from behind..man to man...
oh my good..i mean God.
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #889,539
  • Apr 12, 2014 9:17am Apr 12, 2014 9:17am
Quoting rookie91
Gap down? * Fresh unrest in eastern Ukraine * Four government buildings now seized by pro-Moscow militants * Pro-Western Kiev government promises tough response * Protesters briefly hold part of Donetsk prosecutors office (Adds second building seized, protesters demand autonomy referendum) If this spread_s beyond Crimea its a sell signal. And protests at Rome right now: {image}
Hi
what could be the Gap Size ??? 100 pips ???
  • #889,540
  • Apr 12, 2014 9:23am Apr 12, 2014 9:23am
Does anyone know something about what Mario said today at Washington, or was it irrevelant for exchange rates???
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