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Trading Made Simple

  • #35,661
  • Apr 12, 2014 6:40am Apr 12, 2014 6:40am
Quoting toledoFX
Hello everyone! Glad to be here again. Read the thread very carefully, watched the system on old charts and i must say it's really amazing. I don't like 4H timeframe, my new candle starts not 6am UK time, but 7 am and 11 am UK time. I love one 1H charts, but it needs a lot of learning to trade on this timeframe, so i will try it only on demo now and watch how it works. But i decided to try Daily charts on my small real account, which is specially created for testing this system. When trading real money my discipline is much higher, so i will go...
There was a bullish engulfing candle the previous day . I had already taken a long and my tp is just below the area shaded blue where I think there might be some resistence. Anyway, trade what you see
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the cautious seldom err....C
  • #35,662
  • Apr 12, 2014 6:51am Apr 12, 2014 6:51am
The other question i have: do you use Stochastic still, when you follow the rules? As i see on the old charts it usually moves like TDI do. Does it really help to filter not good entries?
  • #35,663
  • Apr 12, 2014 6:55am Apr 12, 2014 6:55am
Quoting GilR
{quote} Mate - don't over complicate things. Big E from what I have read did not over analyse. He looked at the chart live and could see trend etc. I trade the daily bar and this week only 4 days and even closing early Friday night grossed 380 pips. You can do the same. I think you need to decide whether you want to be a trader like Emmanuel who clearly knows his away around a chart - a professional with many years experience. That will take 10000 hours! maybe a lifetime with your limited time. Or you trade as Big E envisaged. Follow his rules and...

I started trading with H4. But, right now I am not getting time to see the charts during day time. I usually work 12 to 16 hrs, so H4 seems to be difficult to track. Please let us know your daily charts trading style.
  • #35,664
  • Apr 12, 2014 6:57am Apr 12, 2014 6:57am
Quoting pips29
{quote} There was a bullish engulfing candle the previous day . I had already taken a long and my tp is just below the area shaded blue where I think there might be some resistence. Anyway, trade what you see {image}
Thank you! That's right! I guess this is what Emmanuel calls UPthrust bar. That was a really good entry on Friday, nice set-up. Will see what happens on Monday. Anyway, entry on the 2d candle matches TMS rules too. Will make a decision after few hours Asia open.
  • #35,665
  • Apr 12, 2014 7:07am Apr 12, 2014 7:07am
Thanks everyone for suggestions.
I have gone through Phx trade for the week on EA H1 and tried to see what he might have thought as a trade opportunity following simple rules and not over complicating the things and running for 100 pips profit per trade mentality.

I have done it as a homework and thought someone might find it helpful. I am sharing it out of respect to Phx and not judging him financially. The simplicity of Phx style of trading shows a class of a master. I believe Phx won't mind me sharing it here.

Deep Back Test Analysis of Phx EA trades for week 07-04-2014


Please note: This is my own views on how the trades might have been taken using TMS method. Phx may have considered other factors into his trading.
The total amount shown on the chart is for educational purpose only and purely based on the lot size provided by Phx in his chart. There is no guarantee that you will earn the same amount consistently and one must consider proper money management before placing trades.

Buy trades = Green vertical lines
Sell trades = Red vertical lines
Average price bars used
200 EMA(Aqua blue dotted), 100 EMA (Red dotted) , 5 EMA shift +3 close (Yellow dotted), PAC (solid yellow)
Fractal Support and Resistance
Asian Session indicator (5 hours)
Big Round Numbers

Trade 1 (50 pips): Asian session 5 hours range 24.8 pips and PA rejected by 1.47355 resistance. This session showed bullish PA and once PA broke the PAC and bounced TDI with MBL coming above 32. Strong candles with momentum broke resistance (1.47937) and only got stopped at 100 EMA and 1.48347 resistance. See TDI curving.

Trade 2 (70 pips): Sell trade aligned with the bigger TF bearish trend. Bullish PA got rejected at 100 EMA and 1.48347 resistance. 1st bearish candle closed outside PAC and below 5EMA, TDI strong bounce pointing 5 O’clock. Profit taken at 1.47355 resistance where 8th candle pulled back too much.

Trade 3 (50 pips) See 15 min chart aswell: Asian session 5 hours 35.5 pips. This one looks like a 15 min chart entry where PA got rejected by 100 EMA and 4th candle entry on 15 min when PA closed below 5EMA and TDI pointed 5 O’clock down. Profit taken when TDI hooked back, flattened fortunately at the same time price got stopped at 1.47000 number.

Trade 4 (-7 pips): Just a bad luck.

Trade 5 (50 pips): Traded aligned with the overall bearish trend when PA moved below 5EMA and got rejected by 100 EMA. TDI cross pointing 5 O’ clock and profit taken when sharp hook in TDI.

* There was a bounce trade entry on bearish candle number 6 which could have given an extra 35 pips.

Trade 6 (50 pips): Traded against the trend simple TMS entry with MBL moving upward. Strong Bullish candle with momentum, 2nd candle entry and above 5EMA and 1.47000 number. Profit taken when TDI turned flat.

Trade 7 (50 pips): Bounce trade entry after PA got out of PAC and above 100 EMA. Profit taken at the TDI flat and 200 EMA rejection.

Trade 8 (50 pips): Traded with the overall trend. As soon as PA changed color and bullish got rejected by 200 EMA, below 5 EMA and TDI pointing straight down and profit taken when TDI hooked back.

Overall, Class of a master. 342.2 pips after the spread.

Credit: Phx

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Regards
  • #35,666
  • Apr 12, 2014 7:31am Apr 12, 2014 7:31am
Mr Aus, what was your criteria for not entering certain crosses? For example the one before trade #2?
Everything you can imagine, is real - Pablo Picasso
  • #35,667
  • Apr 12, 2014 8:01am Apr 12, 2014 8:01am
Quoting Direwolf
Mr Aus, what was your criteria for not entering certain crosses? For example the one before trade #2?
You have to remember that phx62 has open on his platform, the m15m h1 and h4, taking trades though on the price action of H1. Taking that cross you talked about into account as well as the one where phx62 actually went in, put a horizontal line on your chart at the place you think you would have gone into the trade, now switch your chart to m15 and then h4 and see which one looks more likely and which one doesn't looking at both price action and the angle etc of the tdi into account on those timeframes.

To my mind, I think this is the very best way to trade, taking the 3 timeframes into account at the time you take the trade, before you pull the trigger if you want to trade like phx62 does. He has said he has all 3 timeframes open and it really does help to know if its a higher probability trade or not.
  • #35,668
  • Apr 12, 2014 8:35am Apr 12, 2014 8:35am
Quoting mike1349
{quote} Thanks Phx62, Absolutely makes sence. Do you use any website to give you these statistic? I mean when you say " EA pair has been among the top performers for several months" you watch it yourself or you get it from a website Have a good weekend Mike
I check the ADR on my charts.
  • #35,669
  • Apr 12, 2014 8:44am Apr 12, 2014 8:44am
Quoting heispark
{quote} Thank you always Sir for your quality charts. Regarding 2014.04.10 04:00 trade, was this a pending order? (Perhaps expecting a channel bounce?) It was a news candle and it moved very fast even on 5M. I am a bit curious how you caught this... Thank you.
Yes, it was a pending order that was picked up. Sometimes pending orders won't get picked up if price is moving too fast but in this case, it was. I actually set the pending order based on the PCRF that price formed just before the news release and a cross of the TDI. I put the pending order a few pips below the PCRF, in case price spiked up first. Also, I did not give it much room to breath. I set my SL very close to the top of the PCRF so there was a very small risk. Success to you......
  • #35,670
  • Apr 12, 2014 8:48am Apr 12, 2014 8:48am
Quoting gavman
{quote} Hello Phx62, I must say I admire the way you trade - very inspiring! I want to ask if you use an indi for the breakout boxes on your charts, or do you 'draw' them in manually? Regards, Gavin
The boxes are indicators. They are listed in the paperclip area at the top of the tread as London breakout box and NY session breakout box. As I stated above, I do not use them as breakout boxes, just session highs & lows and an easy way to watch what price does or did during any session.
  • #35,671
  • Apr 12, 2014 9:24am Apr 12, 2014 9:24am
Quoting MrAussieFX
Thanks everyone for suggestions. I have gone through Phx trade for the week on EA H1 and tried to see what he might have thought as a trade opportunity following simple rules and not over complicating the things and running for 100 pips profit per trade mentality. I have done it as a homework and thought someone might find it helpful. I am sharing it out of respect to Phx and not judging him financially. The simplicity of Phx style of trading shows a class of a master. I believe Phx won't mind me sharing it here. Deep Back Test Analysis of Phx EA...
MrAussieFX,
A very interesting analysis but not completely accurate. I began following Big E a long time ago when he opened the Craig Harris thread. He was still developing the TMS method, so I had an opportunity to watch his trading methods grow and change. The first thing I learned was to "KEEP IT SIMPLE". My trade analysis is much simpler than you have described here but I appreciate your efforts to understand how I trade.
I have tried the PAC channel and the 5EMA and the other EMA's and stochastics and numerous other indicators but always come back to simple price action and using the TDI for confirmation. As lastingwell stated above, I watch price on 3 time frames. The M15 keeps me aware of bigger movement that are beginning and the H4 give me a look at trends and reversals. I also do a weekly top down analysis with the higher time frames to be aware of important S/R areas and significant reversal areas. Most of my trades are taken on candle patterns, reversals, and TDI bounces or crosses. Example....trade 1...the TDI bounced on red after price failed to break the low of the LO candle. Once price broke the high of the LO candle, I entered. Trade 2...another TDI bounce trade after price broke below the low of the NY session. I moved my TP to 70 based on the long Frankfurt candle and the time of day.....expecting that the London session might continue the downtrend.
I focus on trading the London session and with the EA pair, I watch for entries following Tokyo/Aussie Open, since both currencies are tied to that session and my normal workday has ended. I look for the London session to set a high or low and then enter as price moves away from that high or low. Experience tells me that often price will move as Big E described...3 to 8 candles in one direction before reversing or consolidating during the London session. Hope this gives a little more insight into how I trade and nice job of analyzing. Success to you.........
  • #35,672
  • Apr 12, 2014 9:28am Apr 12, 2014 9:28am
Quoting MrAussieFX
Trade 4 (-7 pips): Just a bad luck Credit: Phx {image} {image} Regards
With respect to the loosing trade. There was a BRN at 1.47. Looks as though there might have been some London session head fakery going on, with an attempt to trigger stops below 1.47.

However it could just have easily have cascaded much lower.

In fact the candle in the successful previous trade probes that level too, but phx managed to get out of that with 50 pips before the pullback.

You will always have your loosers though. Good stuff and great for motivation overall.
  • #35,673
  • Apr 12, 2014 9:42am Apr 12, 2014 9:42am
Quoting Zoopots
{quote} zwirN- Here's what I come up with using your methodolgy: {image}
Well, after having some bbq here I won't fake being sober But anyways I can't reproduce your results.
I wouldn't count pips at all. What counts is R as being the risk taken and R as being the result of your trade/trades.
In your excel sheet row 4 (SL 30 Pips, R/R of 1/1.5) would be as follows if I get your numbers right:
0.62*45Pips (45Pips =1.5R of 30Pips) - 0.38*30Pips = 16.5Pips on average
16.5/30 Pips = 0.55R is your best expectancy taking into account the different R/Rs you posted, isn't it?

Regards
  • #35,674
  • Apr 12, 2014 9:56am Apr 12, 2014 9:56am
Quoting Phx62
{quote} MrAussieFX, A very interesting analysis......
Thank you Phx... thank you for explaining to us your thinking process and your insight. Truly eye-opener.

Been documenting your trades this month and so far it's packed full of invaluable lessons...

Here's Phx pdf I've been documenting for this month. Decided to release it now since I'll need to prepare to become a monk now ... Won't be monitoring this thread for about a month. Once I'm back I'll try to catch the rest

Safe trading all!
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Phx_2014-04 (First Half).pdf   1.8 MB | 1,305 downloads
Everything you can imagine, is real - Pablo Picasso
  • #35,675
  • Apr 12, 2014 10:02am Apr 12, 2014 10:02am
I'll be at the temple with a reclining Budda. Not sure if I'll be able to check but do message me if you're visiting

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wat_Pho
Everything you can imagine, is real - Pablo Picasso
  • #35,676
  • Apr 12, 2014 10:28am Apr 12, 2014 10:28am
A new uptrend channel has formed on the EA pair. We will see how it plays out for profit targets next week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #35,677
  • Apr 12, 2014 12:28pm Apr 12, 2014 12:28pm
Quoting Direwolf
I'll be at the temple with a reclining Budda. Not sure if I'll be able to check but do message me if you're visiting http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wat_Pho
Dear Direwolf,

I wish you a blissful holy month and that you will conquer your mind as you journey on in life as a Buddhist monk.

Be Blessed.

EMMANUEL
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #35,678
  • Apr 12, 2014 12:37pm Apr 12, 2014 12:37pm
Quoting Erol
For a systematic way to conduct your Big Picture Planning (BPP) Emmanuel has been kind enough to show us many times throughout the thread how we can go about this process in a structured and consistent way. This process has been compiled in PDF format in the post below: {quote} For those struggling with the basics of PASR (Price Action (around) Support & Resistance) I suggest you take a gander at the post below and the attached PDF {quote} Furthermore, I can't stress the importance of what Emmanuel has just posted! Especially for the newer members...
Dear Erol,

Thank you very much for this post. You have done exaclty what Eric said in his post below.

You have given me my Sunday day off and the folks will have plenty fo read and study while I go out spend time to watch the great ocean waves, listen to the ocean and the sea birds and get some fresh air today.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Enjoy the rest of your weekend.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #35,679
  • Apr 12, 2014 12:44pm Apr 12, 2014 12:44pm
Hi,
I new in this forum. I now how to trade forex, but I find this strategy very interessting. I personal love daily candles. Im a little bit confused because of the thousend of pages. Could you please help me:

Where i find the actuall template and indis?
Sometimes I read EA, does everybody here use EA and where can I find this EA?
Sometimes you post chart without stoch indi. But at page 1 the first strategy was with. What is right?
Do you trade all pairs?

Thank you
  • #35,680
  • Apr 12, 2014 1:11pm Apr 12, 2014 1:11pm
10,000 hours may sound a lot.
But when you spend an average 5 hours per day, 5 days per week, How many years will you reach 10,000 hours?
When you had spent 10,000 hours only to realise that many of the things you learned are all crap and you spend more hours to unlearn those crap, that will cause you more thousand of hours.
By then, you will still likely to be in that 95% group of forex failures. So what is all that crap forex gurus, coaches, teachers, developers, etc. telling us to keep it simple.

Attached Image


Taken from the movie The Matrix
"You take the blue pill, the story ends. You wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill, you stay in wonderland, and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes."
―Morpheus to Neo
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
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