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  • #5,201
  • Apr 12, 2014 5:22am Apr 12, 2014 5:22am
Lovely butterfly hammer on weekly. i think the down pressure is over, gonna see some retest but i do not think taking weekly low.
did not enter yet, planned to enter in pullback if it is @ .09314 or so
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If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #5,202
  • Apr 12, 2014 5:35am Apr 12, 2014 5:35am
if it werent for the weekend i would say this wont go back below 1.0950 for the rest of this rally, not sure how these things play out with weekends in them though
Do what's right for you
  • #5,203
  • Apr 12, 2014 5:46am Apr 12, 2014 5:46am
Yeah idk why people call it a hammer. When http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...attern_#hammer

when it clearly says here that its a Doji. Which reflects market indecision.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #5,204
  • Apr 12, 2014 5:47am Apr 12, 2014 5:47am
Haha i see what mean,

When the market sentiment change at the beginning it need check double check blabla, like a train going toward one direction and when it is time to go back it needs some rest , check the system, electrical.....,on fx market they said it is built on human behaviour , my side i do not believe it.

well i hope it goes straight to target


trade safe
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #5,205
  • Apr 12, 2014 5:55am Apr 12, 2014 5:55am
Quoting Neqrotik
Yeah idk why people call it a hammer. When http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...attern_#hammer when it clearly says here that its a Doji. Which reflects market indecision.

If practice the use of candlesticks in your trading style with time you call the patterns by your self and throw away all the website and books.
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #5,206
  • Apr 12, 2014 7:03am Apr 12, 2014 7:03am
Quoting Neqrotik
Yeah idk why people call it a hammer. When http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...attern_#hammer when it clearly says here that its a Doji. Which reflects market indecision.
Check carefully, what is DOJI and What is Bullish Hammer.. and the current weekly closing is Bullish Hammer.
DOJI does not has a body.. Hammer has a body
and the weekly closing we had was with a very small thin body.

This can be taken as DragonFly Doji too, which is a Bullish Signal..


Please first learn all these things my friend... Thanks
Classical chart patterns of currencies from 15+ Year Pro Trader
  • #5,207
  • Apr 12, 2014 7:10am Apr 12, 2014 7:10am
Quoting aviz12
{quote} Check carefully, what is DOJI and What is Bullish Hammer.. and the current weekly closing is Bullish Hammer. DOJI does not has a body.. Hammer has a body and the weekly closing we had was with a very small thin body. This can be taken as DragonFly Doji too, which is a Bullish Signal.. Please first learn all these things my friend... Thanks
We'll see about that. We hit 1.075 you will have a lot more to learn than I will.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #5,208
  • Apr 12, 2014 7:28am Apr 12, 2014 7:28am
USDCAD AVIz I think you are right and this is VERY bullish but it will take some time yet however end of the week left a good note for bulls. You can not look at the weekly and have the justice. The real signal is off monthly chart you see massie bull candle then the inside bars building up, once we break the high of this mother bar say goodnight to bears. Weekly is stuck in box still!! Candles must form OUTSIDE ofthis PA box to mean anything. I rarely trade weekly or monthly charts because then you have to factor in carry swaps and all that but I would say bulls are definitely still in control long term as well as fundamental wise, CAD wants a lower priced loonie so to see this go to 1.7 would not surprise me, coming from a born and raised canuck.
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All posts are my personal opinion
  • #5,209
  • Apr 12, 2014 7:47am Apr 12, 2014 7:47am
Quoting Rtm
USDCAD AVIz I think you are right and this is VERY bullish but it will take some time yet however end of the week left a good note for bulls. You can not look at the weekly and have the justice. The real signal is off monthly chart you see massie bull candle then the inside bars building up, once we break the high of this mother bar say goodnight to bears. Weekly is stuck in box still!! Candles must form OUTSIDE ofthis PA box to mean anything. I rarely trade weekly or monthly charts because then you have to factor in carry swaps and all that but...
EVERYBODY wants a lower priced currency man.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #5,210
  • Apr 12, 2014 8:05am Apr 12, 2014 8:05am
imo anything can happen, just clear from the last couple of days the bull is in control for now.
Do what's right for you
  • #5,211
  • Apr 12, 2014 11:58am Apr 12, 2014 11:58am
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} EVERYBODY wants a lower priced currency man.
I dont think usd wants a lower rate, they will just get it because people lose faith. And the ones that do want a lower currench rate wil need some gov intervention because you wont find a country continue its growth with the rate so low aud and nzd etc. Saying everyone wants a low rate is vague yes but we are talking usd to cad here only.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #5,212
  • Apr 12, 2014 2:52pm Apr 12, 2014 2:52pm
things definately going to get interesting soon, perhaps some big moves with all the majors, a lot of currencies been within consolidation on larger timescales for a while. Dollar index needs to make it's decision soon.

http://i.imgur.com/bqhwU2t.jpg
Do what's right for you
  • #5,213
  • Apr 12, 2014 2:54pm Apr 12, 2014 2:54pm
mario up to his old tricks again...

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/0...A3B05B20140412
Do what's right for you
  • #5,214
  • Edited 3:45pm Apr 12, 2014 3:34pm | Edited 3:45pm
The way i see it is,

Equities sold off, TSY is bid, USD Sold off and VIX is bid.

The odd one out is obviously is the USD. But the Fed has signaled that rate rises will not come as everyone had initially expected and thus as a result people found that holding treasuries is not as bad as initially thought and NOT a move of risk aversion as the USD was not as bid as everyone hoped.

This flattens the Yield curve obviously. And any hint at short rates rising will only invert it further thus facilitating a recession. So what has to give? I expect further USD depreciation and equities to pop back up.

So I don't know what has driven this sudden rise in TSY demand, either its expected prolonged period of lower rates or TSY buyers are frontrunning and will get it wrong and will get it in the teeth as they did in July 2012. But it certainly wasn't fear as the USD shows.

Just musings of mine obviously. But CPI number next week will be helpful however I dont think the number will be what people are expecting it to be. Its more RISK ON or Rates rising theme to me than RISk ON or Off
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #5,215
  • Apr 12, 2014 11:48pm Apr 12, 2014 11:48pm
Treasuries in Longest Rally Since January as Fed Retraces View

April 12 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries rose for a third week as Federal Reserve meeting minutes convinced investors to dial back speculation the central bank was accelerating plans to raise interest rates.

..........
  • #5,216
  • Edited 1:14am Apr 13, 2014 1:03am | Edited 1:14am
Quoting Ken A
Treasuries in Longest Rally Since January as Fed Retraces View April 12 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries rose for a third week as Federal Reserve meeting minutes convinced investors to dial back speculation the central bank was accelerating plans to raise interest rates. ..........
Buy the rumor sell the news maybe at this point? who knows man.

look at the TNX breach of this trendline man. Insane.
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The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #5,217
  • Edited 1:44am Apr 13, 2014 1:26am | Edited 1:44am
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} Buy the rumor sell the news maybe at this point? {image}
What does that statement mean? I never understood it. What if the rumor is bad? What if the news is good?
  • #5,218
  • Apr 13, 2014 1:36am Apr 13, 2014 1:36am
Quoting zaghloul
{quote} What does that statement mean? I never understood it. What is the rumor is bad? What if the news is good?
Ah, lemme clarify.

The fact that "treasuries had their biggest rally in sept" as noted by bloomberg my comment meant that maybe rates will rise now as a "sell the news" gesture. Thats all really. But I believe we will see further continuation in declines (and treasuries rallying). The gesture itself means as an example:

If the news says that a stock will rally, it is good to begin shorting it. This is for the "Sell the news"
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #5,219
  • Apr 13, 2014 2:40am Apr 13, 2014 2:40am
What if the news says a stock will crash? Is the idea to just be contrarian, or is to always sell the news? Also what you described seems more like a rumor to me. In my mind, news is an actual factual release, while a rumor is a speculation of the upcoming news. Sorry to bug you with this, but I never seem to find anyone willing to explain it to me. More importantly, how useful is this strategy? Or is it just an old saying that is often wrong?
  • #5,220
  • Apr 13, 2014 4:55am Apr 13, 2014 4:55am
USDCAD Monthly Chart Bullish Confirmation
Bounced from 61.8% Fib Levels.

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Classical chart patterns of currencies from 15+ Year Pro Trader
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