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  • #5,161
  • Apr 11, 2014 8:40am Apr 11, 2014 8:40am
Quoting aviz12
{quote} Agreed, it did priced in.. However, the trend is still intact to the upside We need to see the weekly closing..
This is what i see as far as daily. which I expect 1.0750 at least to hit over the coming 2 weeks. I expect a followthrough of the H&S pattern top that started from the beginning of this year.

CMON CConfidence....show me a neggy print!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 50 KB
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #5,162
  • Apr 11, 2014 10:07am Apr 11, 2014 10:07am
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} This is what i see as far as daily. which I expect 1.0750 at least to hit over the coming 2 weeks. I expect a followthrough of the H&S pattern top that started from the beginning of this year. CMON CConfidence....show me a neggy print! {image}
Sorry but that is not how H&S pattern looks like.. Head is always big.. right now you are showing me a small head. and this is not a valid Pattern of H&S
And the trend is Bullish Now! Mark my words, as i am shouting this when it went to 1.0860 levels
Classical chart patterns of currencies from 15+ Year Pro Trader
  • #5,163
  • Apr 11, 2014 11:02am Apr 11, 2014 11:02am
Quoting aviz12
{quote} Sorry but that is not how H&S pattern looks like.. Head is always big.. right now you are showing me a small head. and this is not a valid Pattern of H&S And the trend is Bullish Now! Mark my words, as i am shouting this when it went to 1.0860 levels
Just curious. Since when have you been bullish? cause 1.806 was a lower low with break of the neckline (trendline) as per the above on the Fed announcement of a prolonged zero rate period. Canada has a housing boom it needs to control and the USD has been dipping with almost no end in sight.

Just trying to understand the crux of your view here. Please offer what seems to be the catalyst for your bias. Would be helpful.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #5,164
  • Apr 11, 2014 11:17am Apr 11, 2014 11:17am
i think we need to be careful with defining the neckline on this chart.

i remember on the 19/02, the big up move was due to news, not a natural support test.

if you look at the last departing up move at the begining of january, the first point of consolidation is arround 1.8800 and perhaps where this would of naturally headed to previoulsly if not for news.

im happy to stay long in this while i see the bull in control.
Do what's right for you
  • #5,165
  • Apr 11, 2014 11:23am Apr 11, 2014 11:23am
Quoting momochi
i think we need to be careful with defining the neckline on this chart. i remember on the 19/02, the big up move was due to news, not a natural support test. if you look at the last departing up move at the begining of january, the first point of consolidation is arround 1.8800 and perhaps where this would of naturally headed to previoulsly if not for news. im happy to stay long in this while i see the bull in control.
So you guys are both bullish calling the 1.0866 low the last low before you see your bullish targets. Correct?
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #5,166
  • Apr 11, 2014 11:27am Apr 11, 2014 11:27am
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} Just curious. Since when have you been bullish? cause 1.806 was a lower low with break of the neckline (trendline) as per the above on the Fed announcement of a prolonged zero rate period. Canada has a housing boom it needs to control and the USD has been dipping with almost no end in sight. Just trying to understand the crux of your view here. Please offer what seems to be the catalyst for your bias. Would be helpful.
Big answer in short.
Whatever sinks, rises up fast as well.
Kindly check Dollar index weekly/monthly chart, or you can go previous pages, and see the chart i posted, Its in consolidation phase, where a count-method indicates Dollar to burst upside.
First of all, that is not a Head And Shoulder Pattern. So the neckline does not exists.

1) There are two kind of formations occurring.. A bullish Flag.. if we can count that false breakout upside than coming in to the flag.. which is rare.
2) Actual Pattern being formed is Expanding triangle pattern, a huge triangle, should we apply the count method of it, its indicating a further up move.
3) Open Weekly Chart, you will see a nice inverse head and shoulder forming, with a slanting downward neckline.
Classical chart patterns of currencies from 15+ Year Pro Trader
  • #5,167
  • Apr 11, 2014 11:31am Apr 11, 2014 11:31am
Avis, I think you are a tad biased on this pair. Where do you get out if this decides it wants to go to 1.00 in the future?
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #5,168
  • Apr 11, 2014 11:32am Apr 11, 2014 11:32am
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} So you guys are both bullish calling the 1.0866 low the last low before you see your bullish targets. Correct?
i'm just following the flow for now... will get out when i think the run is over - im not massive on TA mainly looking at PA.
Do what's right for you
  • #5,169
  • Apr 11, 2014 11:34am Apr 11, 2014 11:34am
I will see how the weekly closing is.. It seems to be bullish.. how it is..
Classical chart patterns of currencies from 15+ Year Pro Trader
  • #5,170
  • Apr 11, 2014 11:35am Apr 11, 2014 11:35am
Quoting Rtm
Avis, I think you are a tad biased on this pair. Where do you get out if this decides it wants to go to 1.00 in the future?
1.15 i will book 70% of profits.. let other roll.. till 1.19..
However target is open to 1.2+
It could be 1-2 months or more.. and i can wait.
I have huge lots opened..
Classical chart patterns of currencies from 15+ Year Pro Trader
  • #5,171
  • Apr 11, 2014 11:38am Apr 11, 2014 11:38am
Quoting aviz12
{quote} Big answer in short. Whatever sinks, rises up fast as well. Kindly check Dollar index weekly/monthly chart, or you can go previous pages, and see the chart i posted, Its in consolidation phase, where a count-method indicates Dollar to burst upside. First of all, that is not a Head And Shoulder Pattern. So the neckline does not exists. 1) There are two kind of formations occurring.. A bullish Flag.. if we can count that false breakout upside than coming in to the flag.. which is rare. 2) Actual Pattern being formed is Expanding triangle pattern,...
I see what you are saying.

Well. I certainly appreciate the difference in point of view. But the fact that what you see is a penant what I call a H&S with a fake breakout actually turned into a bull-trap cause it broke to the downside. I also see the inverted H&S pattern that you advised me to scope on the weekly.

Im just saying that I think this pair will hit 1.750 or somewhere in the area before it ultimately heads up if thats where it will eventually go to.

So I don't want my bearish bias to counter your bigger picture bullish bias. I want to be specific with the target I have in mind to help put into context my view of the direction in the pair. Again, I really appreciate you guys sharing your view. Please if anyone else has a view on the direction of this pair within the next 2 weeks it would be greatly appreciated if shared.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #5,172
  • Apr 11, 2014 11:44am Apr 11, 2014 11:44am
Quoting aviz12
{quote} 1.15 i will book 70% of profits.. let other roll.. till 1.19.. However target is open to 1.2+ It could be 1-2 months or more.. and i can wait. I have huge lots opened..
I am long now too, I am much more short term though so I cant say much for that.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #5,173
  • Apr 11, 2014 12:08pm Apr 11, 2014 12:08pm
Looks like we are going to have a great Weekly Bar Closing - just went long at closing of 1pm, but more importantly, another great weekly Hidden Divergence

http://i.imgur.com/ZuFy4GO.png
  • #5,174
  • Apr 11, 2014 12:11pm Apr 11, 2014 12:11pm
Quoting Compulsive
Looks like we are going to have a great Weekly Bar Closing - just went long at closing of 1pm, but more importantly, another great weekly Hidden Divergence {image}
10-4 there also a nice H&S with strong close out of neckline
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Selection_001.png Size: 16 KB
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #5,175
  • Apr 11, 2014 12:13pm Apr 11, 2014 12:13pm
will be impressive if they get this back in the green for the week, even more if over 1.0982.. late friday though few hours left..
Do what's right for you
  • #5,176
  • Apr 11, 2014 12:45pm Apr 11, 2014 12:45pm
Looks like im the only one bearish right now...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 79 KB
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #5,177
  • Apr 11, 2014 12:55pm Apr 11, 2014 12:55pm
Quoting ruffryders
could be worthwhile. {image}
I like that a lot. I think it will have a tough time to break 1.1000. The is key CAD data next week though. Traders will be focusing on the CPI data. If it is week, there may be speculation of a rate cut.

Those countries that didn't get cut happy during the heart of the recession seem to have the weakest data on paper. BoC meeting on the 16th, maybe it will be interesting.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #5,178
  • Apr 11, 2014 1:08pm Apr 11, 2014 1:08pm
Nice to know that the bulls have yet to post a single target here on this thread and time frame. Going long just to go long?
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #5,179
  • Apr 11, 2014 1:08pm Apr 11, 2014 1:08pm
Quoting Neqrotik
Looks like im the only one bearish right now... {image}
Are you in with real money or just mentally?
  • #5,180
  • Apr 11, 2014 1:11pm Apr 11, 2014 1:11pm
Bullish Formation...
This is Weekly Chart.. are we seeing similar pattern like before.
It looks like :-)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADWeekly11April2014.png Size: 89 KB
Classical chart patterns of currencies from 15+ Year Pro Trader
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