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  • #889,401
  • Apr 11, 2014 10:12am Apr 11, 2014 10:12am
Quoting CandleStar
I really donīt know, the pa movement this week looks so damn artificial. Not a single bit natural. We have that now and then that it looks like it would never end. Some call it bullish, I call it bullshit - Bastards! Anyway, I see some signals for weakness but donīt know how strong they are. Probabilitiy for me midterm is both sides, sorry, so I prefer to stay on the sideline with a st bias to the south side.
ffleo alluded to money leaving stocks going to bonds and weakening the usd.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #889,402
  • Apr 11, 2014 10:14am Apr 11, 2014 10:14am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} did you take partial? it is always possible for it to drop again.

yea every 50 points or so i tp then add back on a 40 point drop. going well for now. Think this milk prices story will eventually send nzd lower
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #889,403
  • Apr 11, 2014 10:19am Apr 11, 2014 10:19am
I'm out of my short, market is too bullish right now on US.

1.4000 Strong offers
1.3970 Medium offers/Stops
1.3950 Strong offers on approach and then Stops
1.3930 Medium offers
1.3910/15 Medium offers

source: MNI-news
  • #889,404
  • Apr 11, 2014 10:24am Apr 11, 2014 10:24am
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} yea every 50 points or so i tp then add back on a 40 point drop. going well for now. Think this milk prices story will eventually send nzd lower
that is what i call scaling in and out, with small positions, so you do not worry 100 or 200 pips against you. Just find a proper pair, price will always come back to your BE price. What portion to unload at BE price need some skills. Unload too much, profit is going to be small when price go further in your favor. Unload too little, you are under much stress again when price goes against you again.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #889,405
  • Apr 11, 2014 10:26am Apr 11, 2014 10:26am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} got knocked out at last minute stop hunt. Re-entered at same price.
out again. EU is on its own tangent imo. It's not correlating to the micro movements of the US, Yen or pound that I can see. Walking away from this 1 for the week.

Happy with the day, a bit over 150 pips today and still waiting for my long UCad (60 tp) to be closed but may even extend TP, will look at charts more on weekend and will sort out monday.


have a good weekend all and don't forget to switch off for a bit
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #889,406
  • Apr 11, 2014 10:28am Apr 11, 2014 10:28am
buying every 1 pip move down, easy money
Make money by doing the opposite of Giveachance aka loser
  • #889,407
  • Apr 11, 2014 10:29am Apr 11, 2014 10:29am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} out again. EU is on its own tangent imo. It's not correlating to the micro movements of the US, Yen or pound that I can see. Walking away from this 1 for the week. Happy with the day, a bit over 150 pips today and still waiting for my long UCad (60 tp) to be closed but may even extend TP, will look at charts more on weekend and will sort out monday. have a good weekend all and don't forget to switch off for a bit

have a good weekend all and don't forget to switch off for a bit
have a good weekend all and don't forget to switch off for a bit TRUE°
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  • #889,408
  • Apr 11, 2014 10:32am Apr 11, 2014 10:32am
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} yea every 50 points or so i tp then add back on a 40 point drop. going well for now. Think this milk prices story will eventually send nzd lower
40 - 50 pips spread is about right for scaling in and out. when price already did 200 - 300 pips, begin to do it. suppose it goes another 200 or 300 pips more, that is 400 - 600 pips move, and it is almost ready to turn.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #889,409
  • Apr 11, 2014 10:36am Apr 11, 2014 10:36am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} 40 - 50 pips spread is about right for scaling in and out. when price already did 200 - 300 pips, begin to do it. suppose it goes another 200 or 300 pips more, that is 400 - 600 pips move, and it is almost ready to turn.
In last 8 or 9 months, euro moved less than 1000 pips but it did so many swing turns. If one play small positions, scaling in and out every 40 - 50 pips spread, how can one not to make money?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #889,410
  • Apr 11, 2014 10:41am Apr 11, 2014 10:41am
One interesting thing is that euro doesnt react anymore to ECB QE threats. It went from reacting like 70 pips to 30 pips to 10 and now its complety unreactive. I think there are two options for this.
1) Market has priced QE from ECB and now even expects ECB to do it.
2) Market doesn't believe on the ECB anymore, ECB has exausted all his vocal threats.

Also 1 and 2 can coexist and both of them are very bullish for EUR. If Euro percieves ECB QE as positive for euro economy (which I think it is what EURUSD is telling us) then yes it will go up. Only a global shock can stop it.
  • #889,411
  • Apr 11, 2014 10:43am Apr 11, 2014 10:43am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} In last 8 or 9 months, euro moved less than 1000 pips but it did so many swing turns. If one play small positions, scaling in and out every 40 - 50 pips spread, how can one not to make money?

Yea I agree with your point here, thing is I just dont like to play ranging markets because theres no rhyme or reason to the position.

I prefer the situation where fundamentals line up with technical, and I can just say "okay, I will buy on every dip as long as price doesnt take make a lower low"

EUR has been ranging for like 6 months. it sucks.

edit: also when the market is trending well, Im comfortably taking very large position sizes, so it makes up for playing the sidelines for months while the market was in ranging mode.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #889,412
  • Apr 11, 2014 10:43am Apr 11, 2014 10:43am
It seems nobody knows why its going up when reading bank papers.

Is it again Soros and his lame team doing the job? They did the same shit in 2010.
Make money by doing the opposite of Giveachance aka loser
  • #889,413
  • Apr 11, 2014 10:52am Apr 11, 2014 10:52am
Quoting nessus94
It seems nobody knows why its going up when reading bank papers. Is it again Soros and his lame team doing the job? They did the same shit in 2010.
Am I the first one to put you on iggy??
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #889,414
  • Apr 11, 2014 10:54am Apr 11, 2014 10:54am
surprising perseverance EU bulls really putting a show, already borrowed extra 40 points from week range.
  • #889,415
  • Apr 11, 2014 10:59am Apr 11, 2014 10:59am
Put on small shorts 1.3895, SL 1.3935.

tp on some at 1.3850


Eager to see US CPI next week.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #889,416
  • Apr 11, 2014 11:04am Apr 11, 2014 11:04am
Quoting Citiboy
Put on small shorts 1.3895, SL 1.3935. tp on some at 1.3850 Eager to see US CPI next week.
citi by looks of daily, bulls running the show currently/still. Don't see much downside momentum now.

top this off with a strong week close + Dragon speach over weekend. I'd stay put until this thing really tops out near 4000-4050.
surely EU will run out of gas, but seems the move still got some room to move further up.
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  • #889,417
  • Apr 11, 2014 11:05am Apr 11, 2014 11:05am
If Dollar bulls want to make a run it needs to happen before the close today, DXY looks interesting on daily. Holding 79.50.

CFTC must be completely cleaned out of USD longs, market probably net short by a modest amount given the JPY and EUR squeeze

Lots of data next week
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Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #889,418
  • Apr 11, 2014 11:07am Apr 11, 2014 11:07am
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} citi by looks of daily, bulls running the show currently/still. Don't see much downside momentum now. top this off with a strong week close + Dragon speach over weekend. I'd stay put until this thing really tops out near 4000-4050. surely EU will run out of gas, but seems the move still got some room to move further up. {image}

Agreed there, daily looks very strong bull. I am Looking for some position squaring head of the weekend, if USD gets no momentum before the close I will go flat before 5pm. Ideal situation would be a red doji close on the day around 1.3880
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #889,419
  • Apr 11, 2014 11:08am Apr 11, 2014 11:08am
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} citi by looks of daily, bulls running the show currently/still. Don't see much downside momentum now. top this off with a strong week close + Dragon speach over weekend. I'd stay put until this thing really tops out near 4000-4050. surely EU will run out of gas, but seems the move still got some room to move further up. {image}
127% extension of last up swing points to 4094. I have a small shorts already days ago. Will add in between 1.4 and 1.41
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #889,420
  • Apr 11, 2014 11:10am Apr 11, 2014 11:10am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} 127% extension of last up swing points to 4094. I have a small shorts already days ago. Will add in between 1.4 and 1.41
your plan looks like a good plan and should work. I'd time my EU entry with USDCHF also.
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