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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #44,681
  • Apr 10, 2014 6:38am Apr 10, 2014 6:38am
nice V shape - long scalp from here

UJ M5
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  • #44,682
  • Apr 10, 2014 6:55am Apr 10, 2014 6:55am
Hi all.

Following the ~101.50 area support holding I have placed a long position at 101.55 with a tight stop. As per my previous analysis I expect at least a 100 pips of corrective move to 102.50 area before we see any new trend developments.

However there is very real risk of a breakout and even though fundamentals do not support such a move I would be very careful around the previously mentioned 101.30 area.

Good luck everyone.
  • #44,683
  • Apr 10, 2014 7:11am Apr 10, 2014 7:11am
Quoting Trendzalore
Who knows what it wants to do but 101.41 has held strong, if it breaks then look out below to 100.25. Thats IF 101.54 is broken. So 101.54 is a line of defense. If it is broken some may jump on the short wagon but i would wait to see how price reacts at 101.41 first.
101.41 area held overnight. So if it holds then 102.16 is in view then 102.97 and 103.24. If it does not hold after news then look out below.
  • #44,684
  • Apr 10, 2014 7:34am Apr 10, 2014 7:34am
so good US numbers are out. now its make or break UJ. Doesnt look like much bull steam left. But I could be wrong
  • #44,685
  • Apr 10, 2014 7:42am Apr 10, 2014 7:42am
That has just taken 25% off my drawdown.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #44,686
  • Apr 10, 2014 7:45am Apr 10, 2014 7:45am
Quoting Exodus
That has just taken 25% off my drawdown.
Wow.... what's your risk exposure if 25 pips can do that...?
  • #44,687
  • Apr 10, 2014 7:58am Apr 10, 2014 7:58am
Quoting kweiss10
so good US numbers are out. now its make or break UJ. Doesnt look like much bull steam left. But I could be wrong
The proof will be 102.16 if price can retake that then it can move back up. 102.16 will either cap this and drive it down or catapult it up. As I have mentioned if long then targets right now are 102.16 then 102.97 then 103.24.
  • #44,688
  • Apr 10, 2014 8:04am Apr 10, 2014 8:04am
Quoting Trendzalore
{quote} The proof will be 102.16 if price can retake that then it can move back up. 102.16 will either cap this and drive it down or catapult it up. As I have mentioned if long then targets right now are 102.16 then 102.97 then 103.24.

there has been a series of good US numbers but all to often with UJ does this thing go down first and then shoot right up. Will just have to wait and see. Could even happen tonight if no other big news coming out on Friday.
  • #44,689
  • Apr 10, 2014 8:10am Apr 10, 2014 8:10am
I guess the U.S. open will give us a clue. 20 minutes
  • #44,690
  • Apr 10, 2014 9:49am Apr 10, 2014 9:49am
Quoting Trendzalore
As I have noted my bias is a sharp move south possibly as low as 100.85 which is a previous monthly value area high.......and don't laugh........................but 98.59 is a monthly virgin point of control that seems to be calling this pairs name and April 1st could be the catalyst to move it down. If that's the case, a stall at 99.59 my come fist. So next week retail buyers may hop on board for the slaughter not knowing that 103.27 is a weekly virgin point of control. If price doesn't immediately fall off it may rise to that point and then boom...
The floodgates will open if 101.41 is broken to the downside.
  • #44,691
  • Apr 10, 2014 9:59am Apr 10, 2014 9:59am
Quoting kweiss10
{quote} there has been a series of good US numbers but all to often with UJ does this thing go down first and then shoot right up. Will just have to wait and see. Could even happen tonight if no other big news coming out on Friday.
So far good call. I dont understand why it does this though. I see it coming but I dont know the why's of it. I think that is the last piece for me.
  • #44,692
  • Apr 10, 2014 10:25am Apr 10, 2014 10:25am
All aboooooooard all aboooooooooard. the train to 101.85 is leaving the station. Or at least it looks that way.
  • #44,693
  • Apr 10, 2014 10:26am Apr 10, 2014 10:26am
All aboooooooard all aboooooooooard. The train to 101.85 is leaving the station. Or at least it looks that way.
  • #44,694
  • Apr 10, 2014 11:31am Apr 10, 2014 11:31am
My recent trading has been utter garbage. BUT with that being said:

Long USDJPY here (ref 101.46) with SIZE in my PA.
S/L 101.17

Target 1 ~102.2 for 1/3 of position. Target 2 ~102.6 for remainder.

LETS GO. USA. USA. USA. 'Merica
Boo Sushi.
  • #44,695
  • Apr 10, 2014 12:35pm Apr 10, 2014 12:35pm
I am in at 101.4 I believe we bounce. Also bought JPN225 @ 14020
  • #44,696
  • Apr 10, 2014 1:05pm Apr 10, 2014 1:05pm
I believe we going up to 103.s all USD news were good! not way to go down..good luck!
visit www.OlimpiaFX.com
  • #44,697
  • Apr 10, 2014 1:22pm Apr 10, 2014 1:22pm
Quoting olimpia
I believe we going up to 103.s all USD news were good! not way to go down..good luck!
Lets hope you are correct my man.
  • #44,698
  • Apr 10, 2014 1:36pm Apr 10, 2014 1:36pm
Quoting Trendzalore
{quote} So far good call. I dont understand why it does this though. I see it coming but I dont know the why's of it. I think that is the last piece for me.
Yen rallies over USD because of FED Yellen FOMC Minutes yesterday. Yellen's statement weeks back showed a Hawkish FED. Yesterday's FOMC Minutes showed what the FED really is, a very Dovish FED. Traders aren't confident in the FED over BOJ at the moment.

Always remember, what the FED does and says supersedes any run-of-the-mill-weekly economic report. Which is the reason I've said in the past, weekly economic reports aren't important in moving the markets.

Central Bank Monetary Policy trumps all when it comes to moving markets and developing true market direction.
  • #44,699
  • Apr 10, 2014 2:11pm Apr 10, 2014 2:11pm
Good news is that usdjpy showing relative strength vs. the broad decline in SP/risk assets. Fresh lows being made in risk assets while USDJPY holding on ok. Lets see what happens next.
  • #44,700
  • Apr 10, 2014 2:51pm Apr 10, 2014 2:51pm
Quoting Jhig
{quote} Yen rallies over USD because of FED Yellen FOMC Minutes yesterday. Yellen's statement weeks back showed a Hawkish FED. Yesterday's FOMC Minutes showed what the FED really is, a very Dovish FED. Traders aren't confident in the FED over BOJ at the moment. Always remember, what the FED does and says supersedes any run-of-the-mill-weekly economic report. Which is the reason I've said in the past, weekly economic reports aren't important in moving the markets. Central Bank Monetary Policy trumps all when it comes to moving markets and developing...
I see. Thanks
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