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Sonic R. System

  • #68,421
  • Apr 8, 2014 7:10am Apr 8, 2014 7:10am
Quoting Pipocrates
{quote} This will go to 94 then 95
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i see this

Lesson for everyone
http://www.saxobank.com/market-insig...psychology.pdf

feinan
t.me/LWBRfx Discord.io/LWBR
  • #68,422
  • Apr 8, 2014 7:17am Apr 8, 2014 7:17am
Quoting Pipocrates
{quote} It can lasts forever
Thanks
Forex losses teach a trader - not the Forex profits (Linda Raschke)
  • #68,423
  • Apr 8, 2014 7:17am Apr 8, 2014 7:17am
Quoting Pipocrates
{quote} I dont have time now, trading, I will later if you like. How is your NZDUSD SHORT working out? Did you take 100 pip draw down?
Okay, well it would be most appreciated if you could give your opinion some sound analysis when you're in a position to do so.
Yes, I am still holding all of my NU shorts and AU shorts:
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  • #68,424
  • Apr 8, 2014 7:20am Apr 8, 2014 7:20am
Quoting SaiLyfee
{quote} Okay, well it would be most appreciated if you could give your opinion some sound analysis when you're in a position to do so. Yes, I am still holding all of my NU shorts and AU shorts: {image} {image}

On your AUD.. i think the pattern would be to long at 0.9341. Dragon and trend is going up...
  • #68,425
  • Apr 8, 2014 7:20am Apr 8, 2014 7:20am
UJ & EJ: long opened
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  • #68,426
  • Edited 7:50am Apr 8, 2014 7:35am | Edited 7:50am
Quoting SaiLyfee
{quote} What makes you think that? Its no use just saying your opinion without presenting a sound analysis to back yourself up..
Since Pipocrates is busy I guess I will throw in my input on what I saw. If you look at my attached image I have marked 5 volumes that I believe anyone could have studied in real time to find the sentiment of the market at least over the short term.

From left to right accordingly marked as if it were real time (pretend the future price movement has not occured yet):

1st yellow mark- It is obvious this formed a double top @ .9300 showing signs of the bear. Ok let's say you entered short.

2nd yellow mark- Now there is buying pressure coming in at the quarter number. You are not wrong to stay short this trade, but lets continue further into the future.

3rd yellow mark- Now we have created a tiny wave where price pulled back to top of the dragon. Notice that the volume at this high is lower than the 2nd yellow mark. This does not give you a good picture if you are short. If MM's were currently bears I would want to see higher volume at highs not lows! Let's continue

4th & 5th yellow mark- If you look to the left you can see that this quarter number is a significant area of support since March 25th. With the 4th & 5th yellow mark comes stopping volume! Compared to THE FIRST 3 MARKS, these two volumes are higher than the previous 3! Most notably the first volume which formed the double top, is smaller than the volume that occured near the quarter number. This suggests that the MM's favored the quarter number rather than the whole number.

If you can see this in real time and analyze why volume increased where it did compared to .93000 then you can see that they favored the lower price.

Now you may not think that I am right, and i certainly may not be . But this is what I spotted comparing these volumes and was able to bank pips with little to no drawdown. I hope this provides some insight. Of course this is all on the 1hr but these volumes would be just as noticable in the shorter timeframes, the volume cluster would just present itself differently. Obviously this doesn't prove that price will hit .94 or .95 it does show that there are bulls still in a major uptrend.
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  • #68,427
  • Apr 8, 2014 7:50am Apr 8, 2014 7:50am
Quoting Dyekid217
{quote} Since Pipocrates is busy I guess I will throw in my input on what I saw...
Your explanation is really great and clear. Thank you. Try to do this more often
  • #68,428
  • Edited 8:23am Apr 8, 2014 8:11am | Edited 8:23am
My take. AU is screaming bears to me:
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The MM's have been trying to keep this pair rangebound at the highs so they can build short before it takes off for its bear run for profits.
It appears they are now deceiving people into going long and gaining more liquidity to be able to push price down further in the future.
  • #68,429
  • Apr 8, 2014 8:17am Apr 8, 2014 8:17am
Anyone of the experienced traders here have a trade explorer? I like it for learn myself. (Yes I know tah and other posting the trades this is fine too)
Scan all 28 Forex pairs with ONE chart... Currency Strength28 Indicators
  • #68,430
  • Apr 8, 2014 8:18am Apr 8, 2014 8:18am
GbpJpy

Manual close 7 short scouts, making 882pips
Reason: Quite a number of activities happen below whole number (171), lock my profit.

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Thank you Prof Tah and Master sonic once again!
More to come with Sonic R System!
Btw Prof Tah, do you have any batch closing script for MT4? Can share it with me, I use manual close.

-AdrianC.
  • #68,431
  • Apr 8, 2014 8:21am Apr 8, 2014 8:21am
Closed 5 EU longs for 226 pips. So far +500 on the week between AU and EU.

Added GJ scout #1 with significant trading occuring below 171.00 I can't help but think why they want to keep price below a whole number other than to add long positions. All speculation right now but if price goes in my direction I will add on the way up. Like sonic has advised against many times I will be cautious of adding to losing positions. Your analysis of PVSRA better be spot on before doing so, or atleast learn from your mistakes, which I am always doing.
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  • #68,432
  • Apr 8, 2014 8:29am Apr 8, 2014 8:29am
Quoting AdrianC
GbpJpy Manual close 7 short scouts, making 882pips Reason: Quite a number of activities happen below whole number (171), lock my profit. {image} Thank you Prof Tah and Master sonic once again! More to come with Sonic R System! Btw Prof Tah, do you have any batch closing script for MT4? Can share it with me, I use manual close. -AdrianC.
Congratulations
For me, I remain bearish on this pair. The weekly pinbar may be a sign of whats yet to come.
I agree we may see a retrace back up before then though. I intend to add short around the 172 area if it is revisited:
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  • #68,433
  • Apr 8, 2014 8:39am Apr 8, 2014 8:39am
Quoting SaiLyfee
My take. AU is screaming bears to me: {image} The MM's have been trying to keep this pair rangebound at the highs so they can build short before it takes off for its bear run for profits. It appears they are now deceiving people into going long and gaining more liquidity to be able to push price down further in the future.
SaiLyfee I can't help but notice the volumes that you did not mark on your chart. Of course you marked where there is bear pressure but just to provide a little insight on why the price moved the way it did so you can avoid being in drawdown, here is my opinion. It's wonderful that you can spot the bears but why did price skyrocket after you got into the trade? There IS NOTICABLE VOLUME where you marked but there is also a slow form of position building that occured at the lows. As we study PVSRA we cannot tell how big a trade is solely on volume, the small volume bars can even include trades of the MM's. How many lots exactly are they trading?? It could be huge amounts being placed so that retail traders like us are blind to what is going on. It's a warzone out there and if their positions were so easily spotted they would be at a huge disadvantage. Of course all of this is just to improve on lowering the amount of risk and drawdown we expose ourselves to.

We really cannot tell where price is going but if we learn to look at the WHOLE story, not just one chapter, then we can read into what the market makers are doing and avoid getting stuck in no mans land.

Below I have marked on your chart where I believe significant buying occured with rising volume across all 4 marks.
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  • #68,434
  • Apr 8, 2014 8:42am Apr 8, 2014 8:42am
I'm still learning PVSRA and they say those who want to learn and are interested, they asked questions.

I see Bear on EUR/USD GBP/USD and AUD/USD. Prices have approached and passed RDH level. So it's obvious it's on the highs.

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I see Bulls on USD/JPY EUR/JPY USD/CHF and USD/CAD. Price approaches and passed RDL level. So price is on a low. I already have positions on USD/JPY EUR/JPY and USD/CHF

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Patience and Discipline, these are the Holy Grail.
  • #68,435
  • Apr 8, 2014 8:54am Apr 8, 2014 8:54am
Quoting Dyekid217
{quote} SaiLyfee I can't help but notice the volumes that you did not mark on your chart. Of course you marked where there is bear pressure but just to provide a little insight on why the price moved the way it did so you can avoid being in drawdown, here is my opinion. It's wonderful that you can spot the bears but why did price skyrocket after you got into the trade? There IS NOTICABLE VOLUME where you marked but there is also a slow form of position building that occured at the lows. As we study PVSRA we cannot tell how big a trade is solely...
You make a good point Dyekid, although I see that there are volumes at the highs, there are indeed volumes at the lows within the range as well. I still believe though that after such strong movements up and a triple top having recently formed that this is indicative of setting in weakness. Although for now it may look like this is carrying onto move up, to me, I maintain this is action put on by the MM's to sucker in wrongside traders. A possible solution I have been dwelling on is to wait first for the springs/upthrusts to occur before considering a trade. This way you are being patient enough to get in on the 'Premium' action and therefore won't have to endure the drawdown that takes place during this process having taken an earlier entry otherwise.
  • #68,436
  • Apr 8, 2014 8:58am Apr 8, 2014 8:58am
Quoting SaiLyfee
{quote} You make a good point Dyekid, although I see that there are volumes at the highs, there are indeed volumes at the lows within the range as well. I still believe though that after such strong movements up and a triple top having recently formed that this is indicative of setting in weakness. Although for now it may look like this is carrying onto move up, to me, I maintain this is action put on by the MM's to sucker in wrongside traders. A possible solution I have been dwelling on is to wait first for the springs/upthrusts to occur before...
Great thinking.. I mean it really all matters how much we are risking and how much we can endure to being in drawdown. In my opinion it is easier and less stressful to add to winning positions rather than losers. I think this is why there is much emphasis on keeping scout orders with low lot sizes. As price starts to move in your favor you can start increasing order size.

You may already know this but I think it's very helpful to anyone trying to learn money management.
  • #68,437
  • Apr 8, 2014 9:08am Apr 8, 2014 9:08am
Quoting Dyekid217
{quote} Great thinking.. I mean it really all matters how much we are risking and how much we can endure to being in drawdown. In my opinion it is easier and less stressful to add to winning positions rather than losers. I think this is why there is much emphasis on keeping scout orders with low lot sizes. As price starts to move in your favor you can start increasing order size. You may already know this but I think it's very helpful to anyone trying to learn money management.
Yes totally. I couldn't agree more, patience is the key I have learned. I think the more patient a trader can be using PVSRA and considering the bigger picture, the less drawdown they will have to potentially incur. It may even be worth missing a few trades that run for a nice profit out of due diligence. The truth is we can't know the timing of such a thing, but no doubt we should always remember to be on the careful side. If we are presented with a good opportunity for having waited, you can be more sure that you will be rewarded for it
  • #68,438
  • Apr 8, 2014 9:36am Apr 8, 2014 9:36am
I will close all GJ now take my pips and run. Looks to me like biggest profit I ever made on one pair. Fortunately I followed every post here about GJ for last three weeks. Unfortunately I am certain I could not have done it on my own. I still have much to learn about Sonic and much more time to spend in trading, analysis, and watching the MMs.
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I should never have switched from scotch to martinis
  • #68,439
  • Apr 8, 2014 10:32am Apr 8, 2014 10:32am
USDJPY Buy

Im seeing lots of buying on the 1 min chart defending the 102 level

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  • #68,440
  • Apr 8, 2014 10:53am Apr 8, 2014 10:53am
Quoting Dyekid217
{quote} Since Pipocrates is busy I guess I will throw in my input on what I saw. If you look at my attached image I have marked 5 volumes that I believe anyone could have studied in real time to find the sentiment of the market at least over the short term. From left to right accordingly marked as if it were real time (pretend the future price movement has not occured yet): 1st yellow mark- It is obvious this formed a double top @ .9300 showing signs of the bear. Ok let's say you entered short. 2nd yellow mark- Now there is buying pressure coming...
Agreed for longs ... I was wondering what were the reasons for shorting ...
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