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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #44,481
  • Apr 3, 2014 8:54pm Apr 3, 2014 8:54pm
I would say it probably isn't going to move tile NFP
  • #44,482
  • Apr 3, 2014 11:03pm Apr 3, 2014 11:03pm
The full list of 10am Eastern USD/JPY Options Expires for Friday, April 4, 2014 are as follows

105.00 -pay out 2 Billion
104.25/30 -pay out 700 million
104.00 -pay out 250 million
103.50 -pay out 1 Billion
103.25 -pay out 350 million
103.00
102.70
102.60
102.50

Please see previous post yesterday, Wednesday, April 2, 2014 as an example as to how you may interpret the information above, to help with your analysis, while you trade your plan.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...46#post7379546

Please also see previous post yesterday, Wednesday, April 2, 2014 which confirms why the USD/JPY behaved the way it did today.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...20#post7379720

Hence, smash1820's response about the USD/JPY's behaviour today, Thusrday, April 3, 2014.

Quoting smash1820
boring f*ing day for the yen

Quoting smash1820
What a boring fucking day. Still waiting for U/J to go up and I don't care what the reason is.

HDA OUT
  • #44,483
  • Apr 3, 2014 11:04pm Apr 3, 2014 11:04pm
NON-FARM PAY ROLL OUTLOOK

FRIDAY, APRIL 4, 2014

How to interpret the results, so that you can plan your trade

USD/JPY
Resistance
106.00 -Major Major Level of Resistance
105.50 -Major Major Level of Resistance
105.160 -Better than 250k resistance should hold
104.851 -Better than 200k resistance should hold
104.332
104.178


USD/JPY
Support
103.245 -Between 160/190k support should hold
102.819 -Below 150k support should hold
102.254


HDA OUT
  • #44,484
  • Apr 3, 2014 11:07pm Apr 3, 2014 11:07pm
OH NO the one who claimed to trade in YARDS is back
  • #44,485
  • Apr 3, 2014 11:12pm Apr 3, 2014 11:12pm
Quoting Ken A
OH NO the one who claimed to trade in YARDS is back
Hi Ken, long time no see. I want close one of the my long trade today. What do you think?
  • #44,486
  • Apr 3, 2014 11:18pm Apr 3, 2014 11:18pm
Quoting linmou
{quote} Hi Ken, long time no see. I want close one of the my long trade today. What do you think?
I thought you disappeared.

I would close one (.5 lot) buy IF US data is dollar positive. Wait for the spike probably with positive data will hit 104.50 then close. Buy back when it hits lower.

The other option is to set the buy (.5 lot) at BE+ spreads

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  • #44,487
  • Apr 3, 2014 11:25pm Apr 3, 2014 11:25pm
Just went short on UJ targeting 103.68 lvl support areas pivot
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  • #44,488
  • Apr 3, 2014 11:56pm Apr 3, 2014 11:56pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} I thought you disappeared. I would close one (.5 lot) buy IF US data is dollar positive. Wait for the spike probably with positive data will hit 104.50 then close. Buy back when it hits lower. The other option is to set the buy (.5 lot) at BE+ spreads {image}
Thank you Ken, I chose plan A. I cannot open any trade at the moment.
  • #44,489
  • Apr 4, 2014 3:55am Apr 4, 2014 3:55am
that's bellow is my point of view for the USDJPY
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  • #44,490
  • Apr 4, 2014 7:41am Apr 4, 2014 7:41am
LOL Big market players buy the hell out of dip following NFP. Double miss and she rebounds completely prior to NFP. (Was a strong trend so) Lets see how market handles it at NY open. USD/CAD was a good trade opportunity and more so to the downside with some pivotal lows about to be taken out.(If they do down down) from a technical stand point.
  • #44,491
  • Apr 4, 2014 7:44am Apr 4, 2014 7:44am
Some times big players do mistakes too. Now they will be trapped up or they will force it down if they close positions. This is the time of decision, banks calling banks, fixing stuff, msn messengers, skypes etc
  • #44,492
  • Apr 4, 2014 7:45am Apr 4, 2014 7:45am
Okay I'm confident this is the final plunge we're witnessing right now.
  • #44,493
  • Apr 4, 2014 7:48am Apr 4, 2014 7:48am
Quoting sakisf
Some times big players do mistakes too. Now they will be trapped up or they will force it down if they close positions. This is the time of decision, banks calling banks, fixing stuff, msn messengers, skypes etc

I wish this girl will test some lows....then buy her up again.
  • #44,494
  • Apr 4, 2014 7:48am Apr 4, 2014 7:48am
Quoting Brassboy
Okay I'm confident this is the final plunge we're witnessing right now.
You mean going down to 103 or plunge from 104.10 to 103.90 before going up from here?
  • #44,495
  • Apr 4, 2014 7:49am Apr 4, 2014 7:49am
Quoting sakisf
{quote} You mean going down to 103 or plunge from 104.10 to 103.90 before going up from here?
Towards 98. Sounds foolish but we'll see.
  • #44,496
  • Apr 4, 2014 7:50am Apr 4, 2014 7:50am
Options are expiring at 10am eastern time as well. Maybe some more volatility.
  • #44,497
  • Apr 4, 2014 7:53am Apr 4, 2014 7:53am
Quoting Brassboy
{quote} Towards 98. Sounds foolish but we'll see.
Far target. All I need is 103 to evacuate the stupid currency. Every time I lay my hands on U/J my inbox gets filled with stupid margin call notifications

Quoting Rizmeister
Options are expiring at 10am eastern time as well. Maybe some more volatility.
Option at 103.50 is 1b. So it won't break it for the next 1hr.
  • #44,498
  • Apr 4, 2014 7:58am Apr 4, 2014 7:58am
ahha sak!! You funny! Lessen your used margin. Unless your DD is that much. There is a good chance we see some lows. Take a look at the four hour chart/daily...bulls couldn't keep it above 104....double top potentially and shooting star...
  • #44,499
  • Apr 4, 2014 8:01am Apr 4, 2014 8:01am
Im on the sidelines.............

So as I sit here I am wondering with this so so news, after options expiry could this pair try and touch 104.37 which is a virgin point of control on weekly. For some stupid reason like "The market missed but it still is showing improvement so taper is still on" and boom after 10am eastern and on til 3pm eastern the pair rises.

Or is it just going to fall. Who knows......lol

I do think some sort of fall must occur first before 106+ is reached.
  • #44,500
  • Apr 4, 2014 8:05am Apr 4, 2014 8:05am
Quoting Rizmeister
ahha sak!! You funny! Lessen your used margin. Unless your DD is that much. There is a good chance we see some lows. Take a look at the four hour chart/daily...bulls couldn't keep it above 104....double top potentially and shooting star...
Reached 80% margin when it shot up before nfp then took some quick profits from high shorts at 103.70 to get back the profits lost yesterday with the previous top spike. Now just waiting for 103 to get the rest out at BE+swaps. Can hold until 105 but I see better opportunity in longing U/Cad so I need 103 in like 5 minutes

Good thing is that both E & G are going up keeping E/J & G/J in-trend while allowing U/J to make some good fall.
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