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  • #3,801
  • Mar 31, 2014 6:35pm Mar 31, 2014 6:35pm
Quoting srt
{quote} AUD: {image}
Hi Srt,

Thanks for the chart and info. Good to know. I know next to nothing about seasonality.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #3,802
  • Mar 31, 2014 6:50pm Mar 31, 2014 6:50pm
Quoting vox dei
{quote} Hi Srt, Thanks for the chart and info. Good to know. I know next to nothing about seasonality.
I don't either :-)
I'm sure someone has a good reason it usually rises in april. As long as we know it usually does, doesn't really matter why I guess.
I'm more familiar with seasonality when it comes to the grains.
  • #3,803
  • Mar 31, 2014 7:07pm Mar 31, 2014 7:07pm
Quoting srt
{quote} I don't either :-) I'm sure someone has a good reason it usually rises in april. As long as we know it usually does, doesn't really matter why I guess. I'm more familiar with seasonality when it comes to the grains.
That's exactly what I meant with knowing next to nothing I don't know which currencies are usually strong/weak on a given month.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #3,804
  • Apr 1, 2014 8:32am Apr 1, 2014 8:32am
Quoting srt
{quote} AUD: {image}

Srt My friend You have been missed!

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,805
  • Apr 1, 2014 8:36am Apr 1, 2014 8:36am
Quoting vox dei
{quote} That's exactly what I meant with knowing next to nothing I don't know which currencies are usually strong/weak on a given month.

Same here Vox Dei. I know about seasonality in the commodities i.e planting, harvesting and weather seasonalities but not in forex. I guess we all hope that out TA techniques will catch any serious move. Thanks for the info. Much appreciated. Whatever we think we know in this business we are still scratching the surface it seems

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,806
  • Apr 1, 2014 9:13am Apr 1, 2014 9:13am
Quoting Olu
{quote} Same here Vox Dei. I know about seasonality in the commodities i.e planting, harvesting and weather seasonalities but not in forex. I guess we all hope that out TA techniques will catch any serious move. Thanks for the info. Much appreciated. Whatever we think we know in this business we are still scratching the surface it seems Olu
Trying to cure my ignorance. Next I'll do web research.

April seems to show a risk-off tendency.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #3,807
  • Apr 1, 2014 9:26am Apr 1, 2014 9:26am
Crude Oil
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,808
  • Apr 1, 2014 9:28am Apr 1, 2014 9:28am
Quoting vox dei
{quote} Trying to cure my ignorance. ...{image}
Same here Vox Dei. Same here. What we dont know may just affect out bottom line

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,809
  • Apr 1, 2014 9:55am Apr 1, 2014 9:55am
Interesting reads on seasonal patterns.

Article with today's date that matches closely my numbers:

http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/fun...ry/2014/04/01/

A longer term seasonal analysis:

http://vantagepointtrading.com/wp-co...rns-eBook1.pdf
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #3,810
  • Apr 1, 2014 4:11pm Apr 1, 2014 4:11pm
Crude Oil: We get an impulsive move down today which speaks volumes. Some retracement is in order but the journey south may have started

Olu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,811
  • Apr 1, 2014 4:55pm Apr 1, 2014 4:55pm
Hi folks!

Here's some big picture contributions.

EURUSD and real rates
Attached Image

Would be much easier (and probably more accurate) with direct access thru a Bloomberg or Eikon terminal.

Real effective exchange rates
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JPY strengthened dramatically in 1989-1995 as a 'wall of capital' returned home post-bubble so its underperformance is somewhat overstated.
With the commodity dollars it's mostly about terms of trade. I believe Stevens recently commented on this. Australia's terms of trade are likely to deteriorate further which will continue to put pressure on AUD. Swissy has been the best performer overall in real terms if also considering volatility.

CAD vs. Commodity index
Attached Image

To my surprise the nominal TWI gave a better fit in terms of R-squared. The large drop in CAD was, I believe, mainly caused by a shift in sentiment. It's unlikely that BoC will ease MP at this point. Better to wait for a while until the effects of a cheaper Loonie can be discerned. That said, I'm less optimistic long-term. Cheap credit has created large imbalances in the Canadian economy. Those interested in macro should allocate some time to this report (page 15: Imbalances in Canadian Household Finances and the Housing Market).
Twitter - @Jimbaloo
  • #3,812
  • Apr 1, 2014 5:58pm Apr 1, 2014 5:58pm
Quoting Jimbaloo
Hi folks! Here's some big picture contributions...
Thanks for the pointers Jimbaloo. Excellent information

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,813
  • Apr 2, 2014 6:08pm Apr 2, 2014 6:08pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Srt My friend You have been missed! Olu
Thanks Olu!

I've been busy on a project that'll last 2 or 3 weeks yet so not too much time looking at charts these days.
I still make sure to follow your thread everyday :-)
Keep up the good work.
  • #3,814
  • Apr 2, 2014 6:44pm Apr 2, 2014 6:44pm
Quoting Olu
Crude Oil: We get an impulsive move down today which speaks volumes. Some retracement is in order but the journey south may have started Olu {image}
hi mate - do you take her south?
i short yesterday and hope it works as what you commented.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...68#post7379568

cheers
  • #3,815
  • Apr 3, 2014 1:58am Apr 3, 2014 1:58am
Quoting tlpfx14
{quote} hi mate - do you take her south? i short yesterday and hope it works as what you commented. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...68#post7379568 cheers

I am in there TlpFx. I think it is consolidating at the moment so we are back to waiting for more downside. I was looking for a move towards 100 so I am allowing for that

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,816
  • Apr 3, 2014 2:00am Apr 3, 2014 2:00am
Quoting srt
{quote} Thanks Olu! I've been busy on a project that'll last 2 or 3 weeks yet so not too much time looking at charts these days. I still make sure to follow your thread everyday :-) Keep up the good work.

I remember our discussion about grains. Price is going up nicely now - although I am not in it. I am waiting for the start of the seasonal downmove.

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,817
  • Apr 3, 2014 2:06am Apr 3, 2014 2:06am
AudNzd

we have a confirmed 123 bottom retracement for more upside and also an inverse H&S (if you squint) Although we have the 1.0900 area and the 100sma ahead as resistance. If these areas are cleared 1.13xx looks possible
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,818
  • Apr 3, 2014 3:20am Apr 3, 2014 3:20am
Quoting Olu
AudNzd we have a confirmed 123 bottom retracement for more upside and also an inverse H&S (if you squint) Although we have the 1.0900 area and the 100sma ahead as resistance. If these areas are cleared 1.13xx looks possible {image}
Can't believe I've missed the H&S. Now it looks so obvious! Good spot Olu Bought this pair too, for different reasons. Trade conformed to bullish bias for AUD, and more important, on Tuesday daily candle was pinning after re-testing inner TL+support.

Edit: chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #3,819
  • Apr 3, 2014 8:39am Apr 3, 2014 8:39am
Dollar Index
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,820
  • Apr 3, 2014 5:10pm Apr 3, 2014 5:10pm
Crude Oil
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
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