"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
Trading For Those With a 9-5 Job
- #3,801
- Mar 31, 2014 4:35pm Mar 31, 2014 4:35pm
- Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Chaos is a ladder | 1,268 Posts
- #3,802
- Mar 31, 2014 4:50pm Mar 31, 2014 4:50pm
- Joined Dec 2012 | Status: On Life's Path | 2,076 Posts
- #3,803
- Mar 31, 2014 5:07pm Mar 31, 2014 5:07pm
- Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Chaos is a ladder | 1,268 Posts
{quote} I don't either :-) I'm sure someone has a good reason it usually rises in april. As long as we know it usually does, doesn't really matter why I guess. I'm more familiar with seasonality when it comes to the grains.
I don't know which currencies are usually strong/weak on a given month.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
- #3,804
- Apr 1, 2014 6:32am Apr 1, 2014 6:32am
- Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Trend Trader | 6,288 Posts
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
- #3,805
- Apr 1, 2014 6:36am Apr 1, 2014 6:36am
- Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Trend Trader | 6,288 Posts
{quote} That's exactly what I meant with knowing next to nothing
Same here Vox Dei. I know about seasonality in the commodities i.e planting, harvesting and weather seasonalities but not in forex. I guess we all hope that out TA techniques will catch any serious move. Thanks for the info. Much appreciated. Whatever we think we know in this business we are still scratching the surface it seems
Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
- #3,806
- Apr 1, 2014 7:13am Apr 1, 2014 7:13am
- Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Chaos is a ladder | 1,268 Posts
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
- #3,807
- Apr 1, 2014 7:26am Apr 1, 2014 7:26am
- Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Trend Trader | 6,288 Posts
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
- #3,808
- Apr 1, 2014 7:28am Apr 1, 2014 7:28am
- Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Trend Trader | 6,288 Posts
{quote} Trying to cure my ignorance. ...{image}
Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
- #3,809
- Apr 1, 2014 7:55am Apr 1, 2014 7:55am
- Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Chaos is a ladder | 1,268 Posts
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
- #3,810
- Apr 1, 2014 2:11pm Apr 1, 2014 2:11pm
- Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Trend Trader | 6,288 Posts
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
- #3,811
- Apr 1, 2014 2:55pm Apr 1, 2014 2:55pm
Hi folks!
Here's some big picture contributions.
EURUSD and real rates
Would be much easier (and probably more accurate) with direct access thru a Bloomberg or Eikon terminal.
Real effective exchange rates
JPY strengthened dramatically in 1989-1995 as a 'wall of capital' returned home post-bubble so its underperformance is somewhat overstated.
With the commodity dollars it's mostly about terms of trade. I believe Stevens recently commented on this. Australia's terms of trade are likely to deteriorate further which will continue to put pressure on AUD. Swissy has been the best performer overall in real terms if also considering volatility.
CAD vs. Commodity index
To my surprise the nominal TWI gave a better fit in terms of R-squared. The large drop in CAD was, I believe, mainly caused by a shift in sentiment. It's unlikely that BoC will ease MP at this point. Better to wait for a while until the effects of a cheaper Loonie can be discerned. That said, I'm less optimistic long-term. Cheap credit has created large imbalances in the Canadian economy. Those interested in macro should allocate some time to this report (page 15: Imbalances in Canadian Household Finances and the Housing Market).
Here's some big picture contributions.
EURUSD and real rates
Would be much easier (and probably more accurate) with direct access thru a Bloomberg or Eikon terminal.
Real effective exchange rates
JPY strengthened dramatically in 1989-1995 as a 'wall of capital' returned home post-bubble so its underperformance is somewhat overstated.
With the commodity dollars it's mostly about terms of trade. I believe Stevens recently commented on this. Australia's terms of trade are likely to deteriorate further which will continue to put pressure on AUD. Swissy has been the best performer overall in real terms if also considering volatility.
CAD vs. Commodity index
To my surprise the nominal TWI gave a better fit in terms of R-squared. The large drop in CAD was, I believe, mainly caused by a shift in sentiment. It's unlikely that BoC will ease MP at this point. Better to wait for a while until the effects of a cheaper Loonie can be discerned. That said, I'm less optimistic long-term. Cheap credit has created large imbalances in the Canadian economy. Those interested in macro should allocate some time to this report (page 15: Imbalances in Canadian Household Finances and the Housing Market).
Twitter - @Jimbaloo
- #3,812
- Apr 1, 2014 3:58pm Apr 1, 2014 3:58pm
- Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Trend Trader | 6,288 Posts
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
- #3,815
- Apr 2, 2014 11:58pm Apr 2, 2014 11:58pm
- Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Trend Trader | 6,288 Posts
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
- #3,816
- Apr 3, 2014 12:00am Apr 3, 2014 12:00am
- Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Trend Trader | 6,288 Posts
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
- #3,817
- Apr 3, 2014 12:06am Apr 3, 2014 12:06am
- Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Trend Trader | 6,288 Posts
AudNzd
we have a confirmed 123 bottom retracement for more upside and also an inverse H&S (if you squint) Although we have the 1.0900 area and the 100sma ahead as resistance. If these areas are cleared 1.13xx looks possible
we have a confirmed 123 bottom retracement for more upside and also an inverse H&S (if you squint
) Although we have the 1.0900 area and the 100sma ahead as resistance. If these areas are cleared 1.13xx looks possible
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
- #3,818
- Apr 3, 2014 1:20am Apr 3, 2014 1:20am
- Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Chaos is a ladder | 1,268 Posts
AudNzd we have a confirmed 123 bottom retracement for more upside and also an inverse H&S (if you squint
Bought this pair too, for different reasons. Trade conformed to bullish bias for AUD, and more important, on Tuesday daily candle was pinning after re-testing inner TL+support.Edit: chart
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
- #3,819
- Apr 3, 2014 6:39am Apr 3, 2014 6:39am
- Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Trend Trader | 6,288 Posts
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
- #3,820
- Apr 3, 2014 3:10pm Apr 3, 2014 3:10pm
- Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Trend Trader | 6,288 Posts
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct