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Building an equity millipede

  • #6,341
  • Mar 31, 2014 12:54pm Mar 31, 2014 12:54pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} and one final comment on short term/intra-trading discussion we have earlier and which one is mathematically more profitable. To me, it is all a moot point as profit is always measured against a time horizon (and against effort for me). I don't see profits in dollars as simple as black and while as how to arrive at the those profit levels and the journey one takes ultimately has the final say in whether he or she considers him/herself profitable based on the criteria/goals that were set out to achieve. Everything else is meaningless and...
Agreed.
What works best for you is mathematically the most profitable
  • #6,342
  • Mar 31, 2014 12:55pm Mar 31, 2014 12:55pm
Quoting yonseo
{quote} LOL Vee. It is just amusing to see what people to do avoid losses. I feel regulations like FIFO implicitly encourages noobs to averaging down, so I assume we have more noobs averaging down during the US session. Of course thats an opportunity for those who stack positions in the opposite direction, because averaging losers only increases the likelihood of margin calls providing the rocket fuel for the price to go further. What is equally hilarious is that G actually trades much less than he used to but his profitability hasn't really changed...
yep. If someone can share to TRUE reason for the FIFO regulation, that would be helpful. I personally see no benefit of enforcing FIFO to traders. Maybe someone out there created a holy grail which only the US government 'secretly' knows and they enforce FIFO to prevent a market meltdown of sorts. I can understand the reasons for Hedging and leverage caps to protect traders and investors but FIFO is simply beyond my capacity to understand !
Staying in my lane...
  • #6,343
  • Mar 31, 2014 1:02pm Mar 31, 2014 1:02pm
Quoting jlongo
{quote} Hi younseo As english don't is my natural language... can you, please, elaborate more on your past text ??? Trade well JL
Correct me if I am wrong but I understand your question as:

"As English is not my natural langauge, can you please elaborate more on your previous text?"

I am not quite sure which aspect of what I said you want me to elaborate.
Please be specific what you don't understand.

Thanks
  • #6,344
  • Mar 31, 2014 1:08pm Mar 31, 2014 1:08pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Thanks jmn. Please enlighten me how you overcome FIFO regulation and follow the rules on stacking and building legs and moving to BE and all the rest of the key ingredients necessary to build long term positions?? (and please don't give me the option of opening two subaccounts. It's retarded to consider trading multiple accounts!). Due to FIFO, you CANNOT set SL/TP on individual trades so move SL and BE does not apply to US traders the way Graeme advocates. There are 3 major limitations for US trades (and I have mentioned this a dozen times...
Vee, I know you have been trying to figure this out for many years. Believe it or not, I have read this entire thread, and I am aware of your struggle and frustrations. You CAN absolutely get around FIFO. You have to be very aware of how you size your positions. Any mistakes will cost you money. You CAN do this with subaccounts, but your own back office accounting must be accurate. Any mistakes will cost you money as you will lose track of your positions. There is a reason Graemae kept a paper journal. You have to do this as well. If you are not willing to track your trades then you are NOT willing to make any money, it is just that simple. Millipeding is labor intensive, if you are lazy, then it is not for you. You need to think outside of the box and keep your equity growing while keeping your drawdown static. Leverage at 50:1 means that you have to accept the fact that you will make money more slowly.

Again, YOU must keep CLOSE track of your position sizing, and of your portfolio. If you don't want to "work my ass off managing and tracking my trades manually!" Then you deserve what you have gotten so far.......nothing.

I ask you not to delete your post of my TE because I want you to watch that all time percentage loss shrink. It will be good for your confidence in this strategy.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #6,345
  • Mar 31, 2014 1:15pm Mar 31, 2014 1:15pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Vee, I know you have been trying to figure this out for many years. Believe it or not, I have read this entire thread, and I am aware of your struggle and frustrations. You CAN absolutely get around FIFO. You have to be very aware of how you size your positions. Any mistakes will cost you money. You CAN do this with subaccounts, but your own back office accounting must be accurate. Any mistakes will cost you money as you will lose track of your positions. There is a reason Graemae kept a paper journal. You have to do this as well. If you...
G uses OANDA. 50:1 leverage isnt a problem.

FIFO is also not a problem if your a VIP trading 40 standard lots. They will let you move your positions to other sub accounts.
  • #6,346
  • Mar 31, 2014 1:24pm Mar 31, 2014 1:24pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Vee, I know you have been trying to figure this out for many years. Believe it or not, I have read this entire thread, and I am aware of your struggle and frustrations. You CAN absolutely get around FIFO. You have to be very aware of how you size your positions. Any mistakes will cost you money. You CAN do this with subaccounts, but your own back office accounting must be accurate. Any mistakes will cost you money as you will lose track of your positions. There is a reason Graemae kept a paper journal. You have to do this as well. If you...
Interesting response and yet you have not shared anything what I don't already know and do for my stock trading with interactive brokers which also enforces FIFO outside of FX. I just gave a lecture on commenting on someone else's profitability and yet I see one more instance of BS. The amount of time and effort people spend on nano account to prove their worth is just 'priceless'. Perhaps my continued participation and questioning in this thread is giving the impression that I am struggling with this strategy so I should really get the hell out of here and stop wasting my time.

Saying FIFO can work with position sizing is absolutely horse shit without giving the facts on a PROVEN workable model. You are doing this since what Dec 2013? I have been trading since the late 90s and it WILL get old keeping track of trades manually on paper. There is no laziness involved... try this for next 2-3 yrs.... the sooner you realize the better off you will be.
Staying in my lane...
  • #6,347
  • Edited 3:30pm Mar 31, 2014 1:30pm | Edited 3:30pm
Quoting yonseo
{quote} G uses OANDA. 50:1 leverage isnt a problem. FIFO is also not a problem if your a VIP trading 40 standard lots. They will let you move your positions to other sub accounts.
I had no idea this is possible in FX. Every broker I have asked (back in 2010) has declined my request. At that time, I recall having over $xxK and yet they would not allow me to either move my positions to a sub account OR to move my open positions to another broker (similar to brokerage transfer services available with stock brokers in the US)
Staying in my lane...
  • #6,348
  • Mar 31, 2014 1:32pm Mar 31, 2014 1:32pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I had no idea this is possible in FX. Every broker I have asked (back in 2010) has declined my request. At that time, I recall having over $70K and yet they would not allow me to either move my positions to a sub account OR to move my open positions to another broker (similar to brokerage transfer services available with stock brokers in the US)
Now see what you can learn? Just because you have been doing something for a long time does not mean you are any good at it!
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #6,349
  • Mar 31, 2014 1:33pm Mar 31, 2014 1:33pm
Quoting yonseo
{quote} G uses OANDA. 50:1 leverage isnt a problem. FIFO is also not a problem if your a VIP trading 40 standard lots. They will let you move your positions to other sub accounts.
I use Oanda as well, now isn't that a coincidence?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #6,350
  • Mar 31, 2014 1:40pm Mar 31, 2014 1:40pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I had no idea this is possible in FX. Every broker I have asked (back in 2010) has declined my request. At that time, I recall having over $70K and yet they would not allow me to either move my positions to a sub account OR to move my open positions to another broker (similar to brokerage transfer services available with stock brokers in the US)
Brokers are partial. If you were the broker would it not be in the best of your interest to keep a client that likes to pyramid positions of 40 standard lots?

For the rest of us, if we're going to get wiped anyway it is in the best interest for the broker for us to get wiped faster by tempting us to trade too large a size by offering higher leverage. Doing so they take more spread commision from us right from start.
  • #6,351
  • Mar 31, 2014 1:40pm Mar 31, 2014 1:40pm
Quoting yonseo
{quote} Correct me if I am wrong but I understand your question as: "As English is not my natural langauge, can you please elaborate more on your previous text?" I am not quite sure which aspect of what I said you want me to elaborate. Please be specific what you don't understand. Thanks
Hi Younseo:

Thanks for your concern, i just need a pratical example of what you say on your post... i am somewhat lost on those trade descriptions...

Regards

Trade well

JL
Started a blog: terraceman blogspot com
  • #6,352
  • Mar 31, 2014 1:42pm Mar 31, 2014 1:42pm
Ok Vee, I should not have called you lazy. I understand your frustration has come from never being with the right broker. Fix that, and let's revive the thread!
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #6,353
  • Mar 31, 2014 1:42pm Mar 31, 2014 1:42pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I use Oanda as well, now isn't that a coincidence?
Well with OANDA Europe you are not bound by fifo regulations so a non US client like me choose to migrate there.
  • #6,354
  • Mar 31, 2014 1:46pm Mar 31, 2014 1:46pm
Quoting yonseo
{quote} Well with OANDA Europe you are not bound by fifo regulations so a non US client like me choose to migrate there.
It is a bit trickier if you are a US resident, you have to be careful with position sizing, that's all.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #6,355
  • Mar 31, 2014 1:49pm Mar 31, 2014 1:49pm
Quoting jlongo
{quote} Hi Younseo: Thanks for your concern, i just need a pratical example of what you say on your post... i am somewhat lost on those trade descriptions... Regards Trade well JL
Sorry but I am afraid I do not understand the your inquiry. I don't think I stated anything vague but if you feel I have said something difficult to understand then you will need to directly quote the sentence so I can clarify.

I'm confused what you are asking of me exactly to be honest.
  • #6,356
  • Mar 31, 2014 1:53pm Mar 31, 2014 1:53pm
"
However this also tells us that if we do get a position on the daily candle wick then it has the potential to be on the tip of a weekly candle wick, and a position on the weekly candle wick also has the potential to be on the tip of a monthly candle wick. This means that when it comes to potential survival:

1. position on monthly wicks
2. position on weekly wicks
3. position on daily wicks
4. position on wicks of any timeframe lower

In that sequence, will your positions have either higher or lower probability of surviving.

Hence if you factor in the probability of your position surviving relative to your other surviving positions, you should be able to figure out how to PRIORITSE your probes so that you can decide which position to hold longer for bigger home runs and close the other positions earlier for decent profits before the breakeven gets hit.
"

This... What positions we take (direction?)?

Regards

JL
Started a blog: terraceman blogspot com
  • #6,357
  • Mar 31, 2014 1:55pm Mar 31, 2014 1:55pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} It is a bit trickier if you are a US resident, you have to be careful with position sizing, that's all.
Position sizing isn't a bad idea if you are trading 1 standard lot or higher for someone under FIFO regulations

If your first position is lets say 1.0 and your subsequent positions are like 0.99, 0.98, 0.97 and so forth then each position is only 10c difference per pip

Your initial position should have the greatest probability of surviving if you only add positions when your previous position is set to BE. This means it is most ideal if your initial position has the biggest contract size. If your latter positions are more likely to die anyways then you risk less (due to a smaller contract size) to gain less (due to closing for profits earlier).
  • #6,358
  • Mar 31, 2014 2:04pm Mar 31, 2014 2:04pm
Quoting jlongo
" However this also tells us that if we do get a position on the daily candle wick then it has the potential to be on the tip of a weekly candle wick, and a position on the weekly candle wick also has the potential to be on the tip of a monthly candle wick. This means that when it comes to potential survival: 1. position on monthly wicks 2. position on weekly wicks 3. position on daily wicks 4. position on wicks of any timeframe lower In that sequence, will your positions have either higher or lower probability of surviving. Hence if you factor...
Your english is making it very hard to communicate to be honest. I really wish I understood what you are asking.

I was not talking about direction but I am basically saying that IF you have a position very close to the TIP OF MONTHLY WICK and the position is currently in profit, this is a position WORTH HOLDING LONGER than a position very close to the:
TIP OF WEEKLY WICK
TIP OF DAILY WICK
TIP OF 4H WICK
TIP OF 1H WICK
TIP OF 30M WICK
TIP OF 15M WICK
TIP OF 5M WICK
TIP OF 1M WICK

Why? Because it has a greater potential to survive the trend. I simply stated the obvious.

Now if you are asking me to give an example so that you can see what I do to exploit such opportunities that gives me the chance to get a position near wick areas, then thats a different story.
  • #6,359
  • Mar 31, 2014 2:05pm Mar 31, 2014 2:05pm
Quoting yonseo
{quote} Position sizing isn't a bad idea if you are trading 1 standard lot or higher for someone under FIFO regulations If your first position is lets say 1.0 and your subsequent positions are like 0.99, 0.98, 0.97 and so forth then each position is only 10c difference per pip Your initial position should have the greatest probability of surviving if you only add positions when your previous position is set to BE. This means it is most ideal if your initial position has the biggest contract size. If your latter positions are more likely to die anyways...
Thanks for saving me the typing yon....Vee, see above.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #6,360
  • Mar 31, 2014 2:11pm Mar 31, 2014 2:11pm
Quoting yonseo
{quote} Psychologically speaking, thats what differentiates amateurs with the professionals. Being able to ENTER TRADES that others are NOT WILLING TO TAKE is equally applicable in position trading. Most traders are guilty of directional bias where they subconsciously look for reasons why the price should kept heading in the direction they have anticipated. This bias only gets stronger once you have more positions set to BE stacked in your favor. If your bias gets stronger than you become unwilling to take trades in the opposite direction. Professionals...
Not sure I agree with this rather glib answer.

I would posit that all traders, whether professional or not, have a bias before they pull the trade trigger. If they didn't they wouldn't be able to decide which way to trade.

It's how one arrives at the bias that's important, not that you have one.
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