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Sonic R. System

  • #67,981
  • Edited 9:09am Mar 28, 2014 8:50am | Edited 9:09am
PVSRA: GBPJPY, Bulls or Bears?

Yeah, I know. The "Bulls" are right now saying "I told you so." But do not dispair, shorts. This is but yet another push up by the MMs to suck in longs, stop out shorts,....for the MMs to get liquidity for their own short building. If you don't believe it, all you have to do is look at the volume on M1. It clearly shows how the MMs took advantage of available liquidity for shorting on the hike up thru the half number, and then again up thru the upper whole number. Those are two places longs normally have their pending orders sitting....."if it's bullish enough to break up thru here, it is bullish enough for me to place a pending long order here...."....such is the logic. And the MMs just took advantage of it.

Now the MMs have the price nice and high for next week. And maybe they even tweaked the spirits of longers that might supply more liquidity for shorting up here when the new week begins.

We cannot know how the price will move next, but a small manufactured retrace or a big manufactured retrace, this is but a manufactured retrace in a new down trend, manufactured by the MMs for their short building.

I have taken advantage of this opportunity to add to my short trade, and will continue to do so.

-tah
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  • #67,982
  • Mar 28, 2014 8:59am Mar 28, 2014 8:59am
Quoting traderathome
PVSRA: GBPJPY, Bulls or Bears? Yeah, I know. The "Bulls" are right now saying "I told you so." But do not dispair, shorts. This is but yet another push up by the MMs to suck in longs, stop out shorts,....for the MMs to get liquidity for their own short building. If you don't believe it, all you have to do is look at the volume on M1. It clearly shows how the MMs took advantage of available liquidity for shorting on the hike up thru the half number, and then again up thru the upper whole number. Those are two places longs normally have their pending...
Tah,
Clearly there are strong bulls plus a panic selling of the Yen (see link http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...-physical-gold).

What do you think about next week opening? Do you see any possibility of a large gap?

cheers.
  • #67,983
  • Mar 28, 2014 9:04am Mar 28, 2014 9:04am
AUDUSD Short Trade Opened:

Entered short #1, Classic re-entry. No TP at this time. Might or might not close today.
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  • #67,984
  • Edited 10:00am Mar 28, 2014 9:26am | Edited 10:00am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} GBPJPY Short Trade Update: Added short #4, Scout, as MMs again whisked the price back above the whole number Level. I see this as being in the bear "Run for Profits" phase, so taking advantage of retrace price manipulations by the MMs is the thing to do for the least risky trading of all. The TP shown is tentative, meaning if it is reached today, fine. Trade will be closed and I will look for a later opportunity to open a new short trade. However, if the TP is not reached today, I will reset it lower, perhaps another 100 pips lower, for...
GBPJPY Short Trade Update:

Added shorts #5-15, Scouts.

Some disagree with my manner of trading, but there are some things I know. I know that we cannot know how price will move next. I know that the deceiving & thieving, corrupt Market Making Banks make their money by moving price against a valid trade direction to "fool & fold" others, thereby stealing their money. I know that via PVSRA we can determine if these MMs are bulls or bears. I know we can, if we trade lightly, take advantage of the MM's price manipulations when they are trying to take advantage of us. And I know we have to be careful in doing so, to not get overextended.

I could be right on this one, or I could be wrong. I have been wrong before. Time will tell....maybe next week.

-tah
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  • #67,985
  • Mar 28, 2014 9:47am Mar 28, 2014 9:47am
AUD/USD 5 MIN

I am seeing lots of buying little selling and almost expect a gap up carry trade situation over the weekend

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  • #67,986
  • Mar 28, 2014 9:55am Mar 28, 2014 9:55am
To all sonicers,
my previous question about possible opening gap is more of a reminder to sonicers (who are long yen) with not large enough margin level to top it up before the week end just in case the MM try a bad squeeze on the opening.

I also shorted AUDUSD earlier, I will leave it for next week to reassess.
  • #67,987
  • Mar 28, 2014 10:13am Mar 28, 2014 10:13am
Quoting Pipocrates
AUD/USD 5 MIN I am seeing lots of buying little selling and almost expect a gap up carry trade situation over the weekend {image}
AUDUSD:

Pipocrates & Sonicers,

It is important to recognize that while PVSRA might at first seem to indicate the MMs are bulls via "buying" clues at lows, this might only be buying to close shorts (before the weekend in this case) and not buying to open longs which would be the kind of signal we might take note of when the next Classic long setup arrives.

In this case, while there is notable activity at lows, it is likely just buying to close shorts. In which case, the price going back up might only be a bullish looking move put on by bear MMs to suck in longs while they rebuild shorts again at higher prices again, compliments of the longs that get deceived.

As things now stand with this pair, the Dragon is angled down, the Trend is angled down, and PA is below both. Remember what Master Sonicdeejay has repeatedly admonished here, "Let the Dragon and PA show the way."
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  • #67,988
  • Mar 28, 2014 11:41am Mar 28, 2014 11:41am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} AUDUSD: Pipocrates & Sonicers, It is important to recognize that while PVSRA might at first seem to indicate the MMs are bulls via "buying" clues at lows, this might only be buying to close shorts (before the weekend in this case) and not buying to open longs " {image}
You might be right, their is no way to really know. But after such a long up move I would expect more of a distribution phase to have occurred, we might be at the start of one, who knows. As well as some high volume selling at highs (indicating MM are shorting) on the longer time frame which we don't really see.
  • #67,989
  • Edited 12:05pm Mar 28, 2014 11:47am | Edited 12:05pm
Quoting traderathome
PVSRA: GBPJPY, Bulls or Bears? Yeah, I know. The "Bulls" are right now saying "I told you so." But do not dispair, shorts. This is but yet another push up by the MMs to suck in longs, stop out shorts,....for the MMs to get liquidity for their own short building. If you don't believe it, all you have to do is look at the volume on M1. It clearly shows how the MMs took advantage of available liquidity for shorting on the hike up thru the half number, and then again up thru the upper whole number. Those are two places longs normally have their pending...

Yes the time to start to short this pair is now -only I will do so on Sunday/Monday in case there is a gap; and add if it breaches 172.62

But I can only trade what the chart gives me, and how I use PVRSA is to use the greater than and less than scenarios, along with chart analysis

I understand everyone's broker volumes are different-- which is why I don't hold really long term trades. I try to trade between each major S/R I can find and then wait to see how the market reacts.
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  • #67,990
  • Mar 28, 2014 12:07pm Mar 28, 2014 12:07pm
AUD/USD Long Exit

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  • #67,991
  • Mar 28, 2014 12:37pm Mar 28, 2014 12:37pm
TAH did you ever think about to make over weekend a session for students with team viewer and teach on historical charts how to read volume? TV is free for not commercial use and can used until 2h per session free.
http://www.teamviewer.com/en/index.aspx
Scan all 28 Forex pairs with ONE chart... Currency Strength28 Indicators
  • #67,992
  • Mar 28, 2014 5:23pm Mar 28, 2014 5:23pm
Quoting Light&Magic
cool you are missing u,v,w,x y and z

here it is my friend... the missing U...and the missing chart.
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U- A candle with volume higher than previous, normal spread, narrower body, closing down but off the lows. kind of looking bear candle.
Wath makes me be caution about shorting in this candle is that, with higher volume i would expect to see it closing lower than the previous candle low. Not happened. Also it has crossed down the lower trendline and the support line but price went closing above them. Trend and support are still holding.
If you don't know how to earn money, don't loose it.
  • #67,993
  • Mar 28, 2014 6:18pm Mar 28, 2014 6:18pm
Quoting Tradeer
{quote} Tah, Clearly there are strong bulls plus a panic selling of the Yen (see link http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...-physical-gold). What do you think about next week opening? Do you see any possibility of a large gap? cheers.
GBPJPY:

Tradeer,

You have violated two "conditions" here.

1. You pass off your opinion, "...Clearly there are strong bulls...", as a substitute for analysis.
2. You allow yourself to be influenced by media content, which is akin to "trading the news".

These are the mistakes of a novice. I am pointing them out to help you grow past this. You might agree or not agree as to the validity of what I am pointing out. That's okay, because it is your head that is on the chopping block, not mine.

But do realize this. We Sonicers don't care about opinions, not yours, not mine, not anybody's. So, if you want to establish the presence of "strong bulls", don't just give us your bullshit opinion, give us a proper analysis that supports the statement. As for "trading the news", I really don't know what else to say to you about this except that it is the chart of what we trade that is the sole source of all relevant information for trading. Nothing else is, and no matter how much we think we know from other "resources", we still cannot know how price will move, nor when trends will reverse. And when it comes time for the price action to start moving, you can be damn sure that even you are going to be looking at that chart, and not looking up some "article" for advice as to what to do next!

-tah
  • #67,994
  • Edited 7:15pm Mar 28, 2014 6:52pm | Edited 7:15pm
GBPJPY & YEN Pairs & "Nothing Goes Up Forever"

The DAY chart suggests the potential for a H&S formation. Price probably would have to drop 500 pips for this formation to even come into play, but then there would be another 500 pips drop to the target of the formation. That's a thousand pips move down, and that is so substantial considering the bullishness of YEN pairs since - the invention of sex - that it is enough for all "Doubting Thomas's" to laugh at even the thought of something like this happening.

On the other hand, the most recent move up came over Thursday and Friday which were days of GBP releases, not YEN releases. The phrase "Here today, gone tomorrow." comes to mind. Why? Simple. The Market Makers put on the move, and they don't need "reasons or releases" to do so. Two GBP releases, two 100 pip moves up, and the result is still a lower high on the charts. Both days had ranges just over 170 pips. The second day had less volume. So, even though the MMs pushed twice, the liquidity they were trying for was diminishing.

Oh, and for the "Doubting Thomas's" lets add that the potential H&S formation is sort of lopsided. Not that it matters much, but they will want to make something of that fact.

But, to counter that, lets add the WEEK chart and another formation, the "M", with a target that is even more than 700 pips lower!

Let's not quit here.....how about giving the Devil his dues? What about recent media information that in Japan inflation is rampant, and folks are lined up to buy gold? At $22,500 a bar? Come on, now! Do you think any of the average citizenry were in line at those prices? And inflation? So, Abenomics is failing, and all his cult followers are now looking like the idioits they are. The immediate task is obvious, what comes later might take someone with intelligence. If you run your car into a rut, then you have to back it out. Hence, it is time to re-build the strength of the YEN, regardless of what else might follow.

The YEN pairs have had nice runs, since the summer of 2012, but nothing goes up forever.

-tah
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  • #67,995
  • Mar 28, 2014 8:53pm Mar 28, 2014 8:53pm
Quoting traderathome
The YEN pairs have had nice runs, since the summer of 2012, but nothing goes up forever. -tah {image} {image}

This is very true--and yes, the trend has changed.

However, trends don't change instantly, and [whether you want to believe in the concept or not] there is a time element involved-- and being able to recognize and capitalize on the swings turns out to be more profitable in the long run-- and better entries can be made as well

While against your thread rules [and I apologize for my earlier posts; hopefully my last couple were acceptable--albeit by poor skills in MS Paint]--

I am attaching a chart as an example [AUDUSD] -- while no indicator is perfect, one can see the time effect; and know that the market likes to repeat itself
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  • #67,996
  • Mar 28, 2014 9:40pm Mar 28, 2014 9:40pm
Quoting traderathome
GBPJPY & YEN Pairs & "Nothing Goes Up Forever" The DAY chart suggests the potential for a H&S formation. Price probably would have to drop 500 pips for this formation to even come into play, but then there would be another 500 pips drop to the target of the formation. That's a thousand pips move down, and that is so substantial considering the bullishness of YEN pairs since - the invention of sex - that it is enough for all "Doubting Thomas's" to laugh at even the thought of something like this happening. On the other hand, the most recent move...
Patterns are nothing but illusions. Every move makes one out of scores of possible patterns. Don't believe me, look at the charts to see what pattern it would have formed if a move had occured in the opposite direction or even pa had remain sidelines. You will get a pattern.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #67,997
  • Edited 2:35am Mar 29, 2014 1:22am | Edited 2:35am
I would like to contribute my views on GBPJPY.
- In the chart below we can see several SHS. However, they really are not, because I understand that SHS is from a previous trend ... Some of these figures could be triangles or cups and handles, which is more typical of corrective figures.
In the second chart I present my view on the situation of the pair GBPJPY, which is still far from being defined.

As you can see, this world is very subjective. You have to follow the money and bet where most likely find.

Of course, this pair eventually fall out or have a large correction. We do not know when it will happen. We do not know if that will happen now or in 1000 pips (10,000 points) above. But for now this pair remains bullish until the contrary is proved.
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Adaptarse es la clave
  • #67,998
  • Mar 29, 2014 3:21am Mar 29, 2014 3:21am
I know most of us are viewing USDJPY as bearish, and personally I have no strong bias on this pair. However, I did some analysis to play devil's advocate.
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  • #67,999
  • Mar 29, 2014 5:45am Mar 29, 2014 5:45am
Quoting cradenbyrg
I know most of us are viewing USDJPY as bearish, and personally I have no strong bias on this pair. However, I did some analysis to play devil's advocate. {image}
To add further to your devil's advocacy, I believe the 4hr chart is also worth a look ;
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Keep It Simple
  • #68,000
  • Mar 29, 2014 7:05am Mar 29, 2014 7:05am
Hi Sonic

I'm Chinese trader.
I am very much interested in "Sonic R. System".
I have been studying for a week.
I'm reading "PVSRA.pdf" and your thread , but I feel it is difficult to understand,because I am bad at English,so,if there's abbreviations and spoken language maybe difficult for those traders who's first language isn't English.
So,I wish you can use written language more.
Thanks
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