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Lets talk USDCAD

  • #101
  • Jun 30, 2006 5:58pm Jun 30, 2006 5:58pm
Yeah, I miss the good trends this pair can give. Anyhow, stop is at breakeven, according to my trading plan.

Quoting Isotonic
hey soso!!! be careful dude, i see it as a middle of a range play but you're quite correct to draw that channel!!!
-soso
  • #102
  • Jul 3, 2006 5:45pm Jul 3, 2006 5:45pm
Last USDCAD LONG closed mostly at breakeven. There is another retest but I am not feeling confident taking another LONG. The trendline has been tested too many times. I'll check it again tomorrow.
Attached Image
-soso
  • #103
  • Jul 4, 2006 12:32am Jul 4, 2006 12:32am
I didn't go long either. Things are narrowing down in this ascending triangle. If 1.1080 breaks it will bring the old and larger range into focus with a bottom around 1.0975. Interesting.
Always wait for the opportune moment… just be careful not to miss it.
  • #104
  • Jul 13, 2006 3:41am Jul 13, 2006 3:41am
A break from neckline in Head and soilders patter in 1 hour chart. And yesterdays candle was a Doji/star at top.

I am short now in this pair from 113.05.
  • #105
  • Jul 13, 2006 8:26am Jul 13, 2006 8:26am
Hi,
Anyone have any predictions on USD/CAD for the near future (next few days or a week)? --and your basis for your prediction? I shorted this at 1.1220 and I'm losing quite big now. Wondering if I should just take the loss and move on. What you guys think? Thanks.
  • #106
  • Jul 13, 2006 8:28am Jul 13, 2006 8:28am
If the reason you shorted this pair is still valid, hold the position if it meets your money management. If the reasons are no longer valid, dump it.

thanks Scott


Quoting abcxyzzz
Hi,
Anyone have any predictions on USD/CAD for the near future (next few days or a week)? --and your basis for your prediction? I shorted this at 1.1220 and I'm losing quite big now. Wondering if I should just take the loss and move on. What you guys think? Thanks.
  • #107
  • Jul 13, 2006 8:31am Jul 13, 2006 8:31am
Quoting smjones
If the reason you shorted this pair is still valid, hold the position if it meets your money management. If the reasons are no longer valid, dump it.

thanks Scott
This is honestly the best answer to the question. Once I realized that I didn't have rules, I made them. After I made them I had to learn to STICK to them. This was the hardest part of trading to overcome for me.

Great answer Scott!
  • #108
  • Jul 13, 2006 8:48am Jul 13, 2006 8:48am
What is your margin cll level? Or stop loss level?

Your sell price is not that far, I feel it will give you a breakeven or opportunity to close at lower loss than at current levels.

1.1250 is what I am looking at.
  • #109
  • Jul 13, 2006 8:53am Jul 13, 2006 8:53am
Scott has given you a great answer. But you probably want something more comforting, right. If you've read through the James16 Chart Thread, you'll notice the Pin Bar on the Daily chart. Whether that pin bar is exhausted already, I don't know. I'm still short from 1.1333. If your trade is within your money management rules, then I'd say, hang in there.

Take Care
Habeeb
Keeping it Simple
  • #110
  • Jul 13, 2006 11:25am Jul 13, 2006 11:25am
Also the tip of yesterday's pin bar was at the high of this very long term trendline.

And it closed below 23% retracement line of Fibo which comes back from April 2005.

There is no breakout, no change of direction, just a retracement.


http://i28.photobucket.com/albums/c2.../CadDaily1.jpg
  • #111
  • Jul 13, 2006 2:14pm Jul 13, 2006 2:14pm
Thanks for all your guys replies. I'm not sure if it's "within my money management rules" and I still have about $900K leveraged before margin call. I'm kind of new to all this and was doing some small trades (5 to 8 lot sizes on a mini account) last month and was gaining about 20-30% on the principle for each trade, so I was up about 20% total based on my initial account principle, then I did this USD/CAD trade and well, all that realized profit is now "gone" (although I haven't realized any loss yet), so I'm just worried about that and don't want to lose my shirt.

It's come down quite a bit from yesterday....after the BOC announcement, as you all know it shot UP a lot, so that was killer. I'm just hoping it comes back down to the low 1.2200 range, since it's been trading in the 1.1000 to 1.1200 for the past few months. But just because it's been in that range in the past doesn't mean it won't continue to go UP from here which is what i'm worried about...
  • #112
  • Jul 13, 2006 2:19pm Jul 13, 2006 2:19pm
I'm short at 1.1307.
  • #113
  • Jul 13, 2006 2:38pm Jul 13, 2006 2:38pm
Quoting abcxyzzz
I'm kind of new to all this and was doing some small trades (5 to 8 lot sizes on a mini account) last month and was gaining about 20-30% on the principle for each trade...
Basically, you don't have any knowledge of money management and certainly don't have any MM in place. If you did you wouldn't be gaining or losing 30% on each and every trade.

MM is very important when you deal with leveraged instruments. Think of it this way; you could have a 99% Win/Loss ratio, and if you were leveraged high enough on each trade you would inevitably go bankrupt since at some point any loss will bankrupt you at those high levels of leverage.

Money management is the part of risk management where you deal with position sizing on your trades relative to overall account size. Most big traders will tell you that your money management is what makes or breaks you in the end.

Trade management is where you set stops, cut losses, etc. They are intertwined but different.
  • #114
  • Jul 13, 2006 5:33pm Jul 13, 2006 5:33pm
Quoting Far From Average
Basically, you don't have any knowledge of money management and certainly don't have any MM in place. If you did you wouldn't be gaining or losing 30% on each and every trade.

MM is very important when you deal with leveraged instruments. Think of it this way; you could have a 99% Win/Loss ratio, and if you were leveraged high enough on each trade you would inevitably go bankrupt since at some point any loss will bankrupt you at those high levels of leverage.

Money management is the part of risk management where you deal with position sizing on your trades relative to overall account size. Most big traders will tell you that your money management is what makes or breaks you in the end.

Trade management is where you set stops, cut losses, etc. They are intertwined but different.
Hey whiz,
I don't believe I asked for definitions of money/risk/trade management, I'm an accountant and quite aware of what they are. I have a solid equities trading background as well, new to Forex, but I'm aware of money/risk/trade management. I only leveraged 20% of my account balance which is why I didn't get a margin call and lose all of it when the USD/CAD shot up the other day, risking that it would come down again and it has dropped about 100pips since yesterday's high... I don't mind holding on to it for a few days or a week, so was just curious what others thought about the short-term future of the USD/CAD rate, that's all. But thanks...I'm sure someone reading your definitions learned something they didn't previously know....
  • #115
  • Jul 13, 2006 5:47pm Jul 13, 2006 5:47pm
This may seem a little simplistic but I have shorted USD/CAD at 1.1293 based on the fact that the price of oil is increasing very significantly, making it economically feasible for Canada to extract oil from its shale, which is not profitable when the price of oil is below $60 (and Canada has a lot of oil shale). There is also a high probability that BOJ will institute an interest rate, and this may well harm the USD more than the CAD. There is also the phenomenon lately that when USD has gained strength it has not been able to maintain it, which may be useful to prevent any longterm rise in this pair.

If I am right we will both make out.

I entered this trade anticipating a fall to 1.1280 and possibly down to 1.1218.
  • #116
  • Jul 13, 2006 8:55pm Jul 13, 2006 8:55pm
Quoting moonchild
This may seem a little simplistic but I have shorted USD/CAD at 1.1293 based on the fact that the price of oil is increasing very significantly, making it economically feasible for Canada to extract oil from its shale, which is not profitable when the price of oil is below $60 (and Canada has a lot of oil shale). There is also a high probability that BOJ will institute an interest rate, and this may well harm the USD more than the CAD. There is also the phenomenon lately that when USD has gained strength it has not been able to maintain it, which may be useful to prevent any longterm rise in this pair.

If I am right we will both make out.

I entered this trade anticipating a fall to 1.1280 and possibly down to 1.1218.
Thanks for your input. I hope I will make out of it, my average short rate is quite a bit lower than yours, but hope it'll go down even further...I guess we'll see. Take it easy!
  • #117
  • Jul 13, 2006 9:42pm Jul 13, 2006 9:42pm
Your loosing on the trade because of a sequence of geopolitical events, which seem to buffer the dollar. Risk aversion, seems in play in the world. Gold, Oil, Bonds/Government, USD is bullish. Equities and emerging markets bearish. If you carry out this scenario, USD should still be bullish but you will have your retracements. The risk aversion trades are getting long in the tooth, and are ripe for retracements, you should see some retracement in the USD. Some favorables as others have pointed out are that commodities are spiking. But they as well are ripe for retracements.

The geopolitical events are heating up, your basically floating in the ocean which ever direction the waves hit you are at their mercy. Markets move for reasons and are not totally meaningless movements. Hopefully things should cool down geopolitically, and you should be able to get out with minimal loss. I was banking the usd/cad to 115.
Price is the only indicator.
  • #118
  • Jul 13, 2006 9:49pm Jul 13, 2006 9:49pm
Get out at 112.90
Price is the only indicator.
  • #119
  • Jul 14, 2006 11:16am Jul 14, 2006 11:16am
Quoting abcxyzzz
Hey whiz,
I don't believe I asked for definitions of money/risk/trade management, I'm an accountant and quite aware of what they are. I have a solid equities trading background as well, new to Forex, but I'm aware of money/risk/trade management. I only leveraged 20% of my account balance which is why I didn't get a margin call and lose all of it when the USD/CAD shot up the other day, risking that it would come down again and it has dropped about 100pips since yesterday's high... I don't mind holding on to it for a few days or a week, so was just curious what others thought about the short-term future of the USD/CAD rate, that's all. But thanks...I'm sure someone reading your definitions learned something they didn't previously know....
You sound upset. I think it's because I told you an inconvenient truth, but who knows.

You come on here asking us where the pair you're trading is going to go, you're worried, wondering whether you should cut your losses, not sure if what you're doing is within your money management rules, and then said you're new to all this. Was I supposed to infer from those statements that you're a financial whiz CPA who has a background in equities? Who would?

Let's face some facts, shall we?

1. If you're wondering whether or not you're within your money and trade management rules, they are (a) not well enough defined or (b) you are fooling yourself so you can stay in the trade with hopes that it will come back instead of cutting the loss.

2. If you're winning and losing 30% of your account on a trade that's not long term, you are too highly leveraged, especially for your level of experience.

I might be wrong and you might have forgotten more about money management than I know, but I really seriously doubt it.

Also, your equities background may hurt you in FOREX. Forex moves much more, and you have much higher leverage available to you. You can easily make a bad trade and have it start trending against you and blow your account. You have big, huge players like central banks who have purposes much different than yours and whose moves can be hard to anticipate.

I wish you the best, but being sensetive will doom you in this game.
  • #120
  • Jul 14, 2006 12:36pm Jul 14, 2006 12:36pm
Risk management hmmmmm,

Wait for oil to hit 80 early next week, coupled with a USD sell-off and you'll remarkably find your position profitable.

take care...
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