USD/JPY Discussion

maybe some support at 101.84..

I am seeing the start of a pattern here. Please tell me where I am wrong.

The US stock market is clearly over-valued and Dr. Yellen would like nothing more than to slowly let the air out of that balloon before a crash occurs.
They appear to be using the U/J to spark a beat-down in US stocks because the trading algos are reading the carry trade off. SPX comes off a desired amount during their beat down, then trading returns to "normal," whatever that may be nowadays.

If that is indeed the case, the U/J should rise during Tokyo obviously but also rise during London, as the algos read Pound selling as dollar strength. Then at the US open, the pair is smashed to create the illusion of fear to the robots. Rinse and repeat.

What do you think?

I would like 102.25/28 to cap this bounce...

I see a textbook head & shoulders pattern forming on the hourly, and one on the daily is about ready to go.

A decent slide could be in the offing if it goes back below 102.07

Tokyo Core CPI y/y March: 1.0% vs 0.9% forecasts. February Unemployment in at 3.6% vs fcst of 3.7%
Yen stronger on solid inflation data, good for BoJ QE operations & Unemployment beat.

Interesting how Household spending came in really negative. looks like the tax hike didn't really front load consumption as many thought it would.

My thoughts exactly. You could even say for the last few weeks...

Maybe tonight will be a breakout night?

Sorry for the delay EmeraldEyes, but thank you for the response. I'm just checking in

I have a lot of work to do when it comes to the fundamentals

It sounds like you expect JPY to strengthen tho, is that correct?

No bears here, all bulls as the looks of it.

Rather comical how this was set up to be kinda bearish only to get the bear rug pulled

Manipulation of the first order.

I need a shower...

:/

I think the market quickly priced in the latest BoJ news in April '13, sending UsdJpy to 103.70. Any future changes to QQE are not priced in, so something like a slow-rising CPI could trigger the bank to implement more $Y to QQE, weakening their ccy further.

I think Usd/Jpy will be sideways for a while around this area. Buy the range lows, sell extended highs (w/o any new easing policy changes)

Some BoJ members had expected Household Spending to increase even more in the month's leading to April's retail tax hike (5%-->8%). February's data came in poorly, FF chart below. CPI increased to 1.0% as Japan is halfway to inflation goals 11months in to the 24month initial goal of inflation (now its 2%..eventually, as long as it rises)

Guys,

Remember about 1 April and Japanese tax hike. 17 years ago USDJPY felt like falling rock so there is some risk.

We can see totally another future in 3 days!!!

agreed. this tax hike seems to be contrarian to what abe wants for yen - which is possibly why qe could be boosted soon after.

Well now that the week is over and can look at the chart I see a fall.Why? The weekly market profile finished as a completed file, but the following things show a move may occur:

Complete profile
Price ended up above the weekly value area and is near the top of the range
102.99 is where sellers are and is also a previous monthly point of control.

So with those factors, price is out of balance which means there is potential for a big move either way. The reason I see a fall is the fact it is close to a previous monthly point of control on a retest, price is out of balance on the weekly profile, and it is oversold on %R (I don't buy or sell of %R but I do look at it under these conditions to help confirm), price has mad higher high but OBV is not following on the daily, 4hr or 1hr and there is clear divergence with OBV having mad lower lows.

With all that in mind the scenarios that can happen are that price can now range and build a new base and find price agreement in this area or it can retest the weekly value area high 102.41 before resuming up, or being out of balance it cold shoot up or down very quickly. As I have noted my bias is a sharp move south possibly as low as 100.85 which is a previous monthly value area high.......and don't laugh........................but 98.59 is a monthly virgin point of control that seems to be calling this pairs name and April 1st could be the catalyst to move it down. If that's the case, a stall at 99.59 my come fist.

So next week retail buyers may hop on board for the slaughter not knowing that 103.27 is a weekly virgin point of control. If price doesn't immediately fall off it may rise to that point and then boom the buyers are trapped.

To wrap it all up, I think this little rise is all a trap which triggered a bunch of stops that were above 102.46 and 102.62 for those who were short. With them taken out bigger players can sell at a better price. Those who went long got a nice move on Friday but they should be wary, because probably a lot of people have stops below 101.98 and 101.71. That's important because there are plenty of buyers at 101.41 but if enough stops are triggered price could bust through that.

Those are my thoughts. Lets see how it pans out.

"So next week retail buyers may hop on board for the slaughter not knowing that 103.27 is a weekly virgin point of control. If price doesn't immediately fall off it may rise to that point and then boom the buyers are trapped".

exactly what i believe may (unfortunately) occur for those looking for quick buck (not saying a quick buck is bad). It is really best to wait till the event craziness has quelled ever so slightly (I believe)