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USD/CAD

  • #5,001
  • Mar 21, 2014 9:41am Mar 21, 2014 9:41am
But why discount the core CPI so heavily? Its one of the most important data pieces that is released from statistics canada?
  • #5,002
  • Mar 21, 2014 9:48am Mar 21, 2014 9:48am
Quoting Citiboy
Glad all my USD longs are concentrated against EUR, just closed out my USDCAD longs for a small loss. Looking to long CAD vs some other commodity currencies here, I think sentiment may be too bearish. Anyone have any ideas? AUDCAD, CADMXN maybe?
CADMXN is a Citibank best idea. Bullet points:
1. secondary play on us recovery (MXN benefits more than CAD)
2. positive carry
3. constructive on mxn fundys

Downside is obviously that MXN is go to hedge for EM guys so EM shocks will have negative effect.

Im short EURUSD (thematically constructive on US fundys and I will hold this until rate differential/curve movement priced in). Long USDCAD as a trend play (although ugh that carry hurts).
  • #5,003
  • Mar 21, 2014 3:13pm Mar 21, 2014 3:13pm
Quoting mseeross
But why discount the core CPI so heavily? Its one of the most important data pieces that is released from statistics canada?
BoC hasn't ruled out interest rate cut, GDP number may be on the soft side as per comment by BoC president, FED hawkish on USD. However CAD did rise against USD, look at it from start of london session, it overshot when the numbers came out, thats why the retracement. I do think CAD is undervalued at this moment, and I doubt there will be an interest rate cut.

This story seems very similar to AUD, where BoA kept on jawboning it, then ruled out interest rate cut.

Please don't trade on my opinions, I am an amateur, its better to see whats price is telling you.
  • #5,004
  • Mar 24, 2014 8:20am Mar 24, 2014 8:20am
My strategy is now scalping on dips. Minor trend is up, major trend is up. small longs are interesting now. Happy trading.
  • #5,005
  • Mar 26, 2014 5:34pm Mar 26, 2014 5:34pm
sentiment has definitely shifted! Looking to now go short on any upswings. Cheers
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #5,006
  • Mar 26, 2014 5:38pm Mar 26, 2014 5:38pm
I'm still holding my USDCAD long position @ 1.1240. Let's see what's gonna happen next.
  • #5,007
  • Mar 27, 2014 2:51am Mar 27, 2014 2:51am
USDCAD on intraday trendline. If it breaks and holds (CAD bullish), then NZDCAD, AUDCAD, etc maybe good areas to buy CAD.

And that is only if NZD doesn't break highs (currently within pips)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,008
  • Mar 27, 2014 2:56am Mar 27, 2014 2:56am
Quoting slow-trader
USDCAD on intraday trendline. If it breaks and holds (CAD bullish), then NZDCAD, AUDCAD, etc maybe good areas to buy CAD
Going to enter long if it bounce
  • #5,009
  • Mar 27, 2014 2:58am Mar 27, 2014 2:58am
Quoting grandia
{quote} Going to enter long if it bounce
Why? the week is in a clear down trend. All lower highs and lower lows ... I wouldn't long unless we break above 1.116x and keep above.

Not to mention plenty of MA resistance.

I would only long between 1.09-1.0950.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,010
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:11am Mar 27, 2014 3:11am
Switch the chart to daily. Daily 50 SMA has provided good support this month

and it happens to coincide with the trendline in your chart
  • #5,011
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:19am Mar 27, 2014 3:19am
Quoting grandia
Switch the chart to daily. Daily 50 SMA has provided good support this month and it happens to coincide with the trendline in your chart
so when most MA"s are bearish (after CAD sold off and was bought back for 100% of the rally) you are going to rely on one MA? good luck, not my cup of tea. I like MA's that act as direct resistance/support for a counter trade to be 'at' major support/resistance.
  • #5,012
  • Mar 27, 2014 4:31am Mar 27, 2014 4:31am
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} so when most MA"s are bearish.
Which MA are you talking about though?
My 50 SMA and 100 SMA are still bullish
  • #5,013
  • Mar 27, 2014 4:36am Mar 27, 2014 4:36am
Quoting grandia
{quote} Which MA are you talking about though? My 50 SMA and 100 SMA are still bullish
1H and 4H, I have it capped at around 1.1150+

When I talk, I am not talking short term, I am talking few hundred pips range.

USDX looks like it may be perking up (good jobless claim forcasting?) ... so it may rally, I have no bias, only what I see. It maybe bullish, but my charts aren't showing much bullish momentum ... aside from the short term line providing support.
  • #5,014
  • Mar 27, 2014 6:16am Mar 27, 2014 6:16am
Going long 1.1098, SL at 1.1078. TP 1.1150
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #5,015
  • Mar 27, 2014 6:27am Mar 27, 2014 6:27am
Quoting Citiboy
Going long 1.1098, SL at 1.1078. TP 1.1150 {image}
Not going to at least wait to clear London open flows? (1.110x)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,016
  • Mar 27, 2014 6:30am Mar 27, 2014 6:30am
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} Not going to at least wait to clear London open flows? (1.110x) {image}

I dont need super precise entry as I think specs still want to buy usdcad dips as long as we can hold above 1.09. Going to keep my SL tight.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #5,017
  • Mar 27, 2014 7:14am Mar 27, 2014 7:14am
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} I dont need super precise entry as I think specs still want to buy usdcad dips as long as we can hold above 1.09. Going to keep my SL tight.
Careful with that trade, almost took it also, but we didn't clear the open flows/highs.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,018
  • Mar 27, 2014 8:41am Mar 27, 2014 8:41am
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} Careful with that trade, almost took it also, but we didn't clear the open flows/highs. {image}
Entered short .. 1.1085, SL at 1.1105 ... Initial TP at 1.1025

1:3
  • #5,019
  • Mar 27, 2014 8:51am Mar 27, 2014 8:51am
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} Entered short .. 1.1085, SL at 1.1105 ... Initial TP at 1.1025 1:3

Good call here
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #5,020
  • Mar 27, 2014 8:55am Mar 27, 2014 8:55am
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} Good call here
thanks

AUDCAD and NZDCAD were looking heavy ... got in on those, will likely close the NZDCAD short sooner than later.

not going to TP on USDCAD if this drop continues. Weekly atr is stretched though, same as monthly ATR ... SL to BE.

Are you going to build a long position? I want to if DXY bounces, but not liking the looks of it.
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