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NZD/USD

  • #3,901
  • Mar 27, 2014 6:31am Mar 27, 2014 6:31am
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} closed NZD shorts for + 15, going to test highs now ... if we don't break highs ... will short again. Flat on NZD

based on what??? bcoz you closed your short??? how high?? 0.88000 today???? it has bounced bcoz aussie has bounced. wait for US GDP and see the reaction it gets
  • #3,902
  • Mar 27, 2014 6:34am Mar 27, 2014 6:34am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} based on what??? bcoz you closed your short??? how high?? 0.88000 today???? it has bounced bcoz aussie has bounced. wait for US GDP and see the reaction it gets
You sound angry. When it says tests highs, that means the most recent highs. We made highs of .8680 on London open. So we are testing that, if we don't break it .. then that is turning into strong resistance, the more we test and don't break, the stronger it is.

I shorted with an expection of a pullback of 30-40 pips (got about 30) and a retest, so I am reshorting with same game plan. If we stop and don't break down, I will close my short for 15-30 pips which pays for spread/sl of another big trade.

Anyways, short NZD again, using earlier profit as stop.

short .8667, stop .8685, initial TP .863x.
  • #3,903
  • Mar 27, 2014 6:43am Mar 27, 2014 6:43am
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} You sound angry. When it says tests highs, that means the most recent highs. We made highs of .8680 on London open. So we are testing that, if we don't break it .. then that is turning into strong resistance, the more we test and don't break, the stronger it is. I shorted with an expection of a pullback of 30-40 pips (got about 30) and a retest, so I am reshorting with same game plan. If we stop and don't break down, I will close my short for 15-30 pips which pays for spread/sl of another big trade. Anyways, short NZD again, using earlier...
actually I am angry. I just don't understand how a tiny country like nzd with GDP of 0.4% have such a high valuations. also if today's move is on back of good trade balance what abt the news which came last week abt the bad GDP. It did not react to that. I know techs are doing their job after clearing 42 and they may take it to 95 as well before final dump begins
  • #3,904
  • Mar 27, 2014 6:49am Mar 27, 2014 6:49am
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} You sound angry. When it says tests highs, that means the most recent highs. We made highs of .8680 on London open. So we are testing that, if we don't break it .. then that is turning into strong resistance, the more we test and don't break, the stronger it is. I shorted with an expection of a pullback of 30-40 pips (got about 30) and a retest, so I am reshorting with same game plan. If we stop and don't break down, I will close my short for 15-30 pips which pays for spread/sl of another big trade. Anyways, short NZD again, using earlier...
entry price is good. wouln't you mind holding it till 0.8580 if US prints GDP of 2.7%
  • #3,905
  • Mar 27, 2014 6:51am Mar 27, 2014 6:51am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} What if the London boys just do not give a f***?
actually there are still lot of shorts in the system which have to be cleared. we have a target for techs at 0.8695. I shorted at 72 and will add one more at 95 but convinction is less.
  • #3,906
  • Mar 27, 2014 6:52am Mar 27, 2014 6:52am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} actually I am angry. I just don't understand how a tiny country like nzd with GDP of 0.4% have such a high valuations. also if today's move is on back of good trade balance what abt the news which came last week abt the bad GDP. It did not react to that. I know techs are doing their job after clearing 42 and they may take it to 95 as well before final dump begins
They don't have high valuations, their currency is still cheap compared to others. Eur is 1.3x, GBP is 1.6x, Aussie is .9x ...

On a PPP (purchasing power parity) it is normal for years to lag behind what should be.

Their public debt is only about 38% of GDP.

They import about 100,000 BBL per day of crude oil. and about 1/2 that of petro products.


In other words, they are a cheap little paradise that is fun and easy to live/invest in .. both for individuals and entities (pensions, governments, companies).

Their space is limited, so they are small .. like you said, since they are small ... and demand is high, that drives up the price.

A currency, on a basic level, increases with demand. NZ dollar is in demand from all corners, Europeans, Japanese, Americans, Australians, etc. So it goes up in price finding the 'equilibrium'.

Higher NZD lowers energy import costs. So it isn't bad, and no matter what, people need milk. Milk prices are at all time highs and show no signs of reversals ...

There is nothing aside from 'hope' and 'wishes' that is bearish NZD.

On top of all of that, rates are rising there and demand is going up for real estate ... higher inflation, higher yeild, higher rates, higher currency. I think this is the beginning of a multi year(decade even) event. There is a chance that the .80's will be history and .90+ will be the new norm.

Traders before, years ago, couldn't imagine USDJPY at 110, but yet it made it to 7x, so yeah .... 40 above 'worst case scenario' for some.
  • #3,907
  • Mar 27, 2014 6:53am Mar 27, 2014 6:53am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} entry price is good. wouln't you mind holding it till 0.8580 if US prints GDP of 2.7%
I dont' care about the news at all, I purchased an eco book for every year with the events, I look at it once a week. wiat, I do pay attention, but it doesn't determine my trades.

I simply dont care. If I am wrong in my trade, and it is losing money, I close it.
  • #3,908
  • Mar 27, 2014 6:53am Mar 27, 2014 6:53am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} actually I am angry. I just don't understand how a tiny country like nzd with GDP of 0.4% have such a high valuations. also if today's move is on back of good trade balance what abt the news which came last week abt the bad GDP. It did not react to that. I know techs are doing their job after clearing 42 and they may take it to 95 as well before final dump begins
You must be loosing hard on your short. Better not get to emotional while trading, firstly you will be making irrational decision, like holding your short for too long, secondly, your emotions will just make you feel bad, man. I would advice adding small SL, if you get stopped, wait for another technical lvl, place order there, small stop, repeat. Unless your account is like HUUUUUGE, you are very sure about your possition, and have nervs of steel . Anyway good luck.

Anyway, taking all time highs as resistance, placed short at 0.8668, with sl at 0.8710, Tp around .08430, befor 32 fibo of last bullish ride.
  • #3,909
  • Mar 27, 2014 7:02am Mar 27, 2014 7:02am
for my short NZDUD, Orange box is manual TP (if it looks to bounce) and will flip to long .. if it doesn't bounce, then will hold.

move stop upto .8680
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  • #3,910
  • Mar 27, 2014 7:15am Mar 27, 2014 7:15am
why anybody would like to short currency with recently raised rates(highest) in zirp environment?
btfd, rates are main driver in value in forex it's like first, most important thing.
Nothing else matters atm.
swing it!
  • #3,911
  • Mar 27, 2014 7:20am Mar 27, 2014 7:20am
Quoting tomspin
why anybody would like to short currency with recently raised rates(highest) in zirp environment? btfd, rates are main driver in value in forex it's like first, most important thing. Nothing else matters atm.
I have been long most of the time, just making counter scalps.

Rates or not, there are still intra-tops that take place. .8050/.87 can be a range for the next year, who knows. But if this is a short-medium term top (I don't think it is) then I am in within pips of the top. SL spread already paid for with earlier scalp. discount trade + 2 for me.
  • #3,912
  • Mar 27, 2014 7:32am Mar 27, 2014 7:32am
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} I have blown a lot of accounts when I started, first 3 years of trading I didn't use stop losses, got plenty of margin calls. Now I keep it simple with a couple rules. 90%+ are pending orders, I hardly ever enter at market unless it is chasing momentum for a scalp. only use .25% of account per trade, if I add it will be no more than 1% of account. my favorite rule : If I can't sleep; I am using to much leverage. I do well, and with stocks .. I have the same rules. The best thing I did was to stop entering at market/scalping more than I was...

You either enjoy making 5 cent a day or have a very large account to invest only 1%

What made you change/win is increasing the account size - but I think everyone knows this pretty much.
  • #3,913
  • Mar 27, 2014 7:36am Mar 27, 2014 7:36am
Quoting mm2mm
{quote} You either enjoy making 5 cent a day or have a very large account to invest only 1% What made you change/win is increasing the account size - but I think everyone knows this pretty much.
I do well trading. I started doing well years ago when I realized that nominal numbers didn't matter, it was the ROI/rate of return.

Dont' even bother looking at your account balance, trade .2, .25, 1.0% per trade. Set stopless to a defined level before hand. Enter with pending and not at market. If you have a pending trade that isnt' triggered, see what you did wrong ... where the market went, and adjust.

It isn't hard. The hardest part for me was my sleep schedule/stress. When I started trading <1% per trade instead of 5, 10% ... and stacking losses, my stress went down immediately. I sleep fine now, like a baby.
  • #3,914
  • Mar 27, 2014 7:41am Mar 27, 2014 7:41am
"Real Effective Exchange Rates Based on Manufacturing Consumer Price Index for New Zealand" is extremely high it says NZD is overvalued according to CPI.

this index value must be near 1.00 level. if it is upper mean is overvalued according to cpi. and vice versa

as we see index is 1.1231 at december 2013. while price nearly 0.8250

at march 2011 index was 0.98 nearly 1.00 at that month price was nearly 0.7400(0.74 is real value at that time)

as a result. i am short when i see good bearish pattern.


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  • #3,915
  • Mar 27, 2014 7:43am Mar 27, 2014 7:43am
Hi guys
Just a perspective
Whenever price reaches very high levels you will read numerous posters predicting higher numbers with solid convictions.
GU 170+ EU 1.43 on both these pairs I ignored all the noise and stayed on my Bear outlook.It paid me well.
I am short and will hold for 85
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #3,916
  • Mar 27, 2014 7:46am Mar 27, 2014 7:46am
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} I do well trading. I started doing well years ago when I realized that nominal numbers didn't matter, it was the ROI/rate of return. Dont' even bother looking at your account balance, trade .2, .25, 1.0% per trade. Set stopless to a defined level before hand. Enter with pending and not at market. If you have a pending trade that isnt' triggered, see what you did wrong ... where the market went, and adjust. It isn't hard. The hardest part for me was my sleep schedule/stress. When I started trading <1% per trade instead of 5, 10% ... and stacking...
Hi slow trader,

Could I possibly ask: Do you set limit orders more or stop orders? I am considering setting pending orders, like you do and then walking away (I think I need someone to wrench me away from my trades so that I give them at least a chance). But, given the opposite nature of fx, I was considering setting limit orders so as to catch retracements more. Cheers.
  • #3,917
  • Mar 27, 2014 7:49am Mar 27, 2014 7:49am
Harmonically we are in 1.618 extension.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #3,918
  • Mar 27, 2014 7:57am Mar 27, 2014 7:57am
Quoting Davit
Hi guys Just a perspective Whenever price reaches very high levels you will read numerous posters predicting higher numbers with solid convictions. GU 170+ EU 1.43 on both these pairs I ignored all the noise and stayed on my Bear outlook.It paid me well. I am short and will hold for 85 Regards
Euro can still go to 1.36 and have a target at 1.41
GU bounce from 1,6464 can go to 1.7150 to be exact.
The best thing you can do is always listen to yourself so I cannot say you or me are right about market's direction but we are both right cause we will both ignore those views and stick with plan.
See, thats call diplomacy in my books.
swing it!
  • #3,919
  • Mar 27, 2014 8:01am Mar 27, 2014 8:01am
Quoting Didgeridoo
{quote} Hi slow trader, Could I possibly ask: Do you set limit orders more or stop orders? I am considering setting pending orders, like you do and then walking away (I think I need someone to wrench me away from my trades so that I give them at least a chance). But, given the opposite nature of fx, I was considering setting limit orders so as to catch retracements more. Cheers.
I do some software dev so I also use some algorithms to find trades (not as complicated as it sounds at all). but there is a very very very easy method and I can almost guarantee, if you are patient, you will make a profit.

I will attach 3 charts to show you an example .. it will be on the EURAUD.

1) Go on 'any' chart and open it up, go to weekly. put a horizontal line on the major highs and lows. Set the width of the line to it's thickest.

2) go to daily, zoom out one level (or two) and put a thinner line (3) and mark highs and lows. make sure you scroll back and start 'years' ago.

3) now do the same with 4h, but with the thinnest line and scroll back. mark highs and lows.

4) you can stack thick with thin, this will let you know that it was hit with multiple time frames.

now take the same concept but with Fibs, trendlines, etc (weekly trendlines (weekly candlesticks) have thickest line).

when you see the confluence of support or resistance, put a pending order there equal to .1%, .25%, etc of your account. or stack 5 trades that are .02%.

That small % doesn't seem like a lot, but with a 300 pip bounce, that .1% trade is the same as a 10% scalp. And you have plenty of room to wait it out and not stress.

now, if you see 1h, 4h (or daily) closes below the area of confluence, simply close out the trade. and you take a small loss.

Based on my chart, I would put buy orders in the 1.4250--1.4350 region with exceptions of a 1.4450-1.4950 rally. Now once it rallies 50 pips, Set stop loss to BE or +10, or take have the trade off and then set SL.

Patience is the name of this game. This is 90% of what I do and it does great, but sometimes it takes weeks to unfold.
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  • #3,920
  • Mar 27, 2014 8:06am Mar 27, 2014 8:06am
Quoting tomspin
{quote} Euro can still go to 1.36 and have a target at 1.41 GU bounce from 1,6464 can go to 1.7150 to be exact. The best thing you can do is always listen to yourself so I cannot say you or me are right about market's direction but we are both right cause we will both ignore those views and stick with plan. See, thats call diplomacy in my books.
and I think in short term 8570 max for bears, I would aim at 8975, simple fibo observation
swing it!
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