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NZD/USD

  • #3,861
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:35am Mar 27, 2014 3:35am
Quoting Spik
{quote} He (not 'we' lol) heavily bought EURUSD just before FOMC announcement. His account was completely erased after first 45 pips of downmove. Obviously he went all-in after every green streak. If you "play" it that way it ends sooner or later. But he caught my eye after crazy +300% in 5 days, all credit for that though
To over-leverage yourself like that on one curruncy -- Retail traders -- Think they have Moral hazards when they don't.

When they fail there is no bail-outs for them, but Greed is the envy of everyone.

When I started trading, years ago.. Used to have what was called Gun-slingers..

People who would leverage all their accounts on one trade for just 1-2 Pips.

So they would do.. $500-10,000 per pip depending on account size.. Get in and get out -- It was during dealing desk times when you had price deficiencies between brokers and it was the original scalp.

Still every trade you will either make it out a winner or go home broke.

The once that lasted.. took $200 accounts into $100,000 over a month.

While the "honest" once got screwed by the brokers the dishonest screwed the brokers -- Don't know if brokers would actually payout but looked nice on paper.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #3,862
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:35am Mar 27, 2014 3:35am
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} LoL, i didn't say it wouldn't drop several hundred pips, I actually said a correction can happen but I expect .8050 to hold. What I said, is that if it starts dropping, don't get complacent. US Session may want to test the highs (again). If often happens, if highs are retested and don't break ... then chances are better for a short.
for a country with less than 1% GDP 0.8300 and above is overvalued. US prints 2.5% and higher GDP every quarter
  • #3,863
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:36am Mar 27, 2014 3:36am
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} I am not saying you won't, I am saying that 400% in one month is 20% a day, consequently. which is nearly impossible. Either you are lying, or you are extremely lucky and aren't using stops ... if you are extremely lucky, then when your luck runs out it will costs you 1/2 your account.
you seem to be acting like a pro. how many accounts have you blown??? load of shit you are
  • #3,864
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:37am Mar 27, 2014 3:37am
Quoting jaws810
{quote} ATM, I'm using about 90% of my available margin on a 50:1 leveraged account with a 20 pip TP and a 60pip Sl and I haven't had any problems yet, I make a bit more than 10% a trade and if I lose a trade I'd lose about 1/3 of my account which I could make up in about 4 good trades. I think the reward it worth the risk.
I've seen traders get continuously profitable with RR 3:1 (as yours) AND RR 1:3 (arguably safer). Whatever works for you. I usually use RR 1:2.
  • #3,865
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:37am Mar 27, 2014 3:37am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} for a country with less than 1% GDP 0.8300 and above is overvalued. US prints 2.5% and higher GDP every quarter
GDP has nothing to do with exchange rate aside from seeing if the economy is expanding or contracting.

And aside from that, you may want to look at the actual GDP numbers

https://www.google.com/publicdata/ex...im=country:NZL
  • #3,866
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:39am Mar 27, 2014 3:39am
seems like nzd is hot topic today
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #3,867
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:39am Mar 27, 2014 3:39am
Quoting jaws810
{quote} ATM, I'm using about 90% of my available margin on a 50:1 leveraged account with a 20 pip TP and a 60pip Sl and I haven't had any problems yet, I make a bit more than 10% a trade and if I lose a trade I'd lose about 1/3 of my account which I could make up in about 4 good trades. I think the reward it worth the risk. I only make 3 or 4 trades a week but my profits are compounded because I use OandA as my broker and I have a $1 minimum trade size so I can use almost exactly 90% of my available margin on every trade.

I am sorry, but I honestly don't believe that unless you posts your trades.

With that said, I don't care if you posts your trades. but when someone claims to make 400% in one month and then post a 1:3 ratio with 20% gains per day, I have to call BS without evidence.
  • #3,868
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:42am Mar 27, 2014 3:42am
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} GDP has nothing to do with exchange rate aside from seeing if the economy is expanding or contracting. And aside from that, you may want to look at the actual GDP numbers https://www.google.com/publicdata/ex...im=country:NZL
if it was that good why was it at 0.7300 few months back.
  • #3,869
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:42am Mar 27, 2014 3:42am
Quoting Spik
{quote} Okay interesting, what is your info?
They are talking about 3 more .25% rises in quick succession.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #3,870
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:44am Mar 27, 2014 3:44am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} for a country with less than 1% GDP 0.8300 and above is overvalued. US prints 2.5% and higher GDP every quarter
Mate, I don't know shit about fundamentals, but NZ doesn't have a printing press going 24/7
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #3,871
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:44am Mar 27, 2014 3:44am
Quoting bogus
{quote} They are talking about 3 more .25% rises in quick succession.
I doubt they can handle so many. one more is enough. if another earthquake happens what happens to kiwi. do they still raise rates. lets face it. it is geographically most uncertain country
  • #3,872
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:45am Mar 27, 2014 3:45am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} you seem to be acting like a pro. how many accounts have you blown??? load of shit you are
I have blown a lot of accounts when I started, first 3 years of trading I didn't use stop losses, got plenty of margin calls.

Now I keep it simple with a couple rules.

90%+ are pending orders, I hardly ever enter at market unless it is chasing momentum for a scalp.

only use .25% of account per trade, if I add it will be no more than 1% of account.

my favorite rule : If I can't sleep; I am using to much leverage.

I do well, and with stocks .. I have the same rules.

The best thing I did was to stop entering at market/scalping more than I was entering medium term-long term trades.

I have done well, but I have never came close to 400% in a month. and when I started, the 20% 'days' I had was luck and would often by followed by equally horrible days.
  • #3,873
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:45am Mar 27, 2014 3:45am
Quoting bogus
{quote} Mate, I don't know shit about fundamentals, but NZ doesn't have a printing press going 24/7
ya. very soon IMF will come out and hammer this pair. watch out. i doubt we will go above 0.88
  • #3,874
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:46am Mar 27, 2014 3:46am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} I doubt they can handle so many. one more is enough. if another earthquake happens what happens to kiwi. do they still raise rates. lets face it. it is geographically most uncertain country
Earthquake is bad for the people yes. But they ahve to spend to rebuild (labor, parts, etc) so you can't say it is made (fiscally). It costs money, which means money is going to be spent.
  • #3,875
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:47am Mar 27, 2014 3:47am
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} Earthquake is bad for the people yes. But they ahve to spend to rebuild (labor, parts, etc) so you can't say it is made (fiscally). It costs money, which means money is going to be spent.
exactly. people will take loans. for people to take loans rates should be reasonable. at such high interest rates you cannot print.
  • #3,876
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:48am Mar 27, 2014 3:48am
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} Earthquake is bad for the people yes. But they ahve to spend to rebuild (labor, parts, etc) so you can't say it is made (fiscally). It costs money, which means money is going to be spent.
Exactly. Which is what is happening now.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #3,877
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:49am Mar 27, 2014 3:49am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} exactly. people will take loans. for people to take loans rates should be reasonable. at such high interest rates you cannot print.
What are you talking about? high rates for borrowing and printing? huh?

Aside from that, high rates are met by high yeild investments. 5% interest is high, but not if you are making 8% return on investment!

entered short NZDUSD (counter trade) .8676, SL .8685. just giving it a chance, USDX perking up.
  • #3,878
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:50am Mar 27, 2014 3:50am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} exactly. people will take loans. for people to take loans rates should be reasonable. at such high interest rates you cannot print.
You beat me to the "exactly" lol. Interest rates aren't high at the moment...
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #3,879
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:51am Mar 27, 2014 3:51am
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} What are you talking about? high rates for borrowing and printing? huh? Aside from that, high rates are met by high yeild investments. 5% interest is high, but not if you are making 8% return on investment! entered short NZDUSD (counter trade) .8676, SL .8685. just giving it a chance, USDX perking up.
I don't know but kiwi is linked to the aussie. aussie falls. kiwi falls
  • #3,880
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:52am Mar 27, 2014 3:52am
USDX may be really perking up. If it is, NZD resilience can't last long.

Also a 'telling' sign, NZD is breaking Y'day highs and AUD isn't ... if AUD falls, I expect NZD to follow suit.
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