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NZD/USD

  • #3,841
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:22am Mar 27, 2014 3:22am
Quoting Spik
{quote} The second (and possibly last) rate raise is already largely priced in. We should get up to 0,8750-0,8800 (pure inertia!) range before RBNZ announcement in April, but i expect the second rate raise not affecting NZDUSD in positive direction. Rather i expect NZDUSD to recede gradually after second rate raise. Thus we should get a round top (or two of them) @ beformentioned levels later in April.
At the very mininum I would wait for milk futures to go down. They are up on world demand, if they stay up, NZD is staying up.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agri...-iii-milk.html

Now we can get a correction, but I personally don't expect to see much below .8050 for a long time.
  • #3,842
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:22am Mar 27, 2014 3:22am
Quoting Spik
{quote} The second (and possibly last) rate raise is already largely priced in. We should get up to 0,8750-0,8800 (pure inertia!) range before RBNZ announcement in April, but i expect the second rate raise not affecting NZDUSD in positive direction. Rather i expect NZDUSD to recede gradually after second rate raise. Thus we should get a round top (or two of them) @ beformentioned levels later in April.
That's not what I'm hearing.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #3,843
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:23am Mar 27, 2014 3:23am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Top side is limited.With USD getting stronger only direction is down to me. They are folks here posting numbers 88-90 Last time we saw 88 was in 2011 financial meltdown. Not likely to happen now under preset fundamentals.Could price push 87? sure but I will continue shorting. Regards
I have taken four trades about this pair since last Thursday and three of them lost me nearly $500.
there would never be a worse month but the Mar.
So I would like to take my leisure time and calm down myself without any trade,just it is.

rationally,the bullish tread is amazing.
till yesterday everything seems to be prepared except a last rocket.
now we got it,especially following by Mr spencer's speech
short opportunity is coming.

See you next month.
no other killers to me but emotion
  • #3,844
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:23am Mar 27, 2014 3:23am
Quoting Spik
{quote} I was monitoring one guy's account in this month. He traded aggressively, without SLs, if in deficit he waited and closed with small profits etc. We went staggering +300% in 5 days. His streak ended when he was about +550% after mere 8 days. The FOMC few days ago caught him on left foot and literally erased his whole account in minutes. What should we learn? This way of trading is the safest way to lose your money.
huh?

You started with you being an observer and ended with "we" and then something about losing all his money lol.. Can you break that down.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #3,845
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:24am Mar 27, 2014 3:24am
Quoting Spik
{quote} I was monitoring one guy's account in this month. He traded aggressively, without SLs, if in deficit we waited and closed with small profits etc. We went staggering +300% in 5 days. His streak ended when he was about +550% after mere 8 days. The FOMC few days ago caught him on left foot and literally erased his whole account in minutes. What should we learn? This way of trading is the safest way to lose your money.
I did it plenty of times years ago (in stocks and currencies) when I started trading. Would make 10-15% a day, add to loses to go to BE hopefully.

Then it bites you one day, the pair (like man who are in NZD right now) didn't turn, and margin caught your account with a 50% loss.

Everyone can make 10% a day, but everyone can lose 50% in a day also.
  • #3,846
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:25am Mar 27, 2014 3:25am
Quoting Mr Mao
{quote} I have taken four trades about this pair since last Thursday and three of them lost me nearly $500.there would never be a worse for this month.So I would like to take my leisure time and calm down myself without any trade,just it is.rationally,the bullish tread is amazing.till yesterday everything seems to be prepared except a last rocket.now we got it,especially following by Mr spencer's speech,opportunity is coming.
sorry to hear that. even i have given back some today. I think a country like newzealand cannot handle back to back rate hikes especially when their neighbour is still struggling
  • #3,847
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:26am Mar 27, 2014 3:26am
Quoting palabara
{quote} huh? You started with you being an observer and ended with "we" and then something about losing all his money lol.. Can you break that down.
Sorry, English is not my first language. I mistakenly wrote WE instead of HE. Corrected.
  • #3,848
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:26am Mar 27, 2014 3:26am
Quoting Spik
{quote} Sorry, English is not my first language. I mistakenly wrote WE instead of HE. Corrected.
No it's okay.. Can you explain what happened?

I got the 1st half of it, but I didn't get how he blew the account?
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #3,849
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:27am Mar 27, 2014 3:27am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} sorry to hear that. even i have given back some today. I think a country like newzealand cannot handle back to back rate hikes especially when their neighbour is still struggling
who said Aussie is struggling? headline news that doesn't want you to get in on the action?

80% of mining profits go to foreign investors. They lose out the most, not Aussie's.

New Zealand can handle higher rates. THey have a booming real estate market (lots are moving there!), they have commodities that are in demand no matter how rich or poor a person/country is. They are fiscally well off. I can't see anything bad.

If my family went poor, we would still buy milk.
  • #3,850
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:28am Mar 27, 2014 3:28am
ut oh george. NZD is breaking highs, wonder how many accounts are about to close out!

edit - if you are short, and it breaks down, dont' get comfortable. If Europe can't break and hold highs, US open may try.
  • #3,851
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:30am Mar 27, 2014 3:30am
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} who said Aussie is struggling? headline news that doesn't want you to get in on the action? 80% of mining profits go to foreign investors. They lose out the most, not Aussie's. New Zealand can handle higher rates. THey have a booming real estate market (lots are moving there!), they have commodities that are in demand no matter how rich or poor a person/country is. They are fiscally well off. I can't see anything bad. If my family went poor, we would still buy milk.
aussie is not struggling is it? bcoz aussie rose from 0.86 to 0.92 its not struggling. it fell from 1.1 to 0.86 remember that. dollar is very bearish at the moment.
  • #3,852
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:30am Mar 27, 2014 3:30am
Quoting slow-trader
ut oh george. NZD is breaking highs, wonder how many accounts are about to close out!
many..... i just touched 2013 highest point. I added few lots (short) but as we know times have changed we wont get comments from NZ that they will cut rates etc..so we might easily go to 0.9000 area this year but before that i do believe retrace towards 0.8392 area
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #3,853
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:30am Mar 27, 2014 3:30am
Quoting palabara
{quote} No it's okay.. Can you explain what happened? I got the 1st half of it, but I didn't get how he blew the account?
He (not 'we' lol) heavily bought EURUSD just before FOMC announcement. His account was completely erased after first 45 pips of downmove. Obviously he went all-in after every green streak. If you "play" it that way it ends sooner or later. But he caught my eye after crazy +300% in 5 days, all credit for that though
  • #3,854
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:31am Mar 27, 2014 3:31am
open short here .86724 sl 30 pips , US strength kill nzd
Equities open and promptly sell off
  • #3,855
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:31am Mar 27, 2014 3:31am
Quoting slow-trader
ut oh george. NZD is breaking highs, wonder how many accounts are about to close out! edit - if you are short, and it breaks down, dont' get comfortable. If Europe can't break and hold highs, US open may try.
you are crazy. if nzd falls from here there is no way but 0.8300 for it. it drops 400 pips in a week. check June 2013
  • #3,856
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:31am Mar 27, 2014 3:31am
Just sold a truck full of kiwi at 0.8675 with a tight SL of 0.8680 (you may call it very tight ) with a open TP...

Edit: Moved SL to 0.8685
  • #3,857
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:32am Mar 27, 2014 3:32am
Quoting eqshack
{quote} many..... i just touched 2013 highest point. I added few lots but as we know times have changed we wont get comments from NZ that they will cut rates etc..so we might easily go to 0.9000 area
exactly why some people will get caught on nzd. you think it goes to 0.900 and it reverses. nzd still depends on aussie and if aussie breaks down kiwi falls
  • #3,858
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:33am Mar 27, 2014 3:33am
Quoting bogus
{quote} That's not what I'm hearing.
Okay interesting, what is your info?
  • #3,859
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:33am Mar 27, 2014 3:33am
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} I am not saying you won't, I am saying that 400% in one month is 20% a day, consequently. which is nearly impossible. Either you are lying, or you are extremely lucky and aren't using stops ... if you are extremely lucky, then when your luck runs out it will costs you 1/2 your account.
ATM, I'm using about 90% of my available margin on a 50:1 leveraged account with a 20 pip TP and a 60pip Sl and I haven't had any problems yet, I make a bit more than 10% a trade and if I lose a trade I'd lose about 1/3 of my account which I could make up in about 4 good trades. I think the reward it worth the risk. I only make 3 or 4 trades a week but my profits are compounded because I use OandA as my broker and I have a $1 minimum trade size so I can use almost exactly 90% of my available margin on every trade.
  • #3,860
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:33am Mar 27, 2014 3:33am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} you are crazy. if nzd falls from here there is no way but 0.8300 for it. it drops 400 pips in a week. check June 2013
LoL, i didn't say it wouldn't drop several hundred pips, I actually said a correction can happen but I expect .8050 to hold.

What I said, is that if it starts dropping, don't get complacent. US Session may want to test the highs (again). If often happens, if highs are retested and don't break ... then chances are better for a short.
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