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  • #885,961
  • Mar 25, 2014 8:45pm Mar 25, 2014 8:45pm
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} As you can see the ECB was never at the lower bound during the crisis.
Just look at the photo you quoted, and see the deposit rate and refinancing one ...

Also, here :
http://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/monet.../index.en.html

Even though, lets see for the sake of argument: Yes, negative interest rates were not applicable due to x amount of reasons ... can you compare lower levels of industrial outputs/ inflation / whatever to the PIIGS crisis?! Again, the ECB hawks - what are they afraid of it so much, to consider such an extraordinary measure?
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #885,962
  • Mar 25, 2014 8:53pm Mar 25, 2014 8:53pm
Quoting Greener
{quote} Growth and unemployment are now his job because as he mentioned, unemployment at these levels and low inflation limit the effect of monetary policy. Obviously price stability comes first but he can do his bit to stimulate growth and employment.
This is so true, still how can he forces a European sovereign to modify its fiscal policy to increase employment?! He is just the waiter serving drinks, what the customers do with their beverages, is totally up to them. We have to keep in mind, the authority of central banks are not unlimited...
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #885,963
  • Mar 25, 2014 8:54pm Mar 25, 2014 8:54pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Just look at the photo you quoted, and see the deposit rate and refinancing one ... Also, here : http://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/monet.../index.en.html Even though, lets see for the sake of argument: Yes, negative interest rates were not applicable due to x amount of reasons ... can you compare lower levels of industrial outputs/ inflation / whatever to the PIIGS crisis?! Again, the ECB hawks - what are they afraid of it so much, to consider such an extraordinary measure?

Well, strictly speaking on opinion. I think they just want to save the bullet for a crisis. They dont want to do anything unconventional unless something is going really wrong, but at the same time they cant just let inflation slide to 0% because if they do and a crisis hits at that point they will be way behind the curve and need to do something that much bigger just to get inflation back to 0%.

The Bank of Canada Gov Poloz talks often of having an 'inflation cushion'. THe Eurozones cushion is almost completely gone at this point. They will need to do something unconventional to get inflation up. They've taken risks with unconventional policy in the past with the 2 LTROs which were STERILIZED purchases that still moved EUR lower buy hundreds of pips. At the moment the market completely is offsides in terms of expecting anything at all, and thats where the risk is. I saw this quote a few moments ago:

Setting negative rates and an asset-purchase program in Europe "would push the euro to $1.35," said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at BNY Mellon. "But it would take the threat of an imminent interest-rate hike in the U.S. for it to fall below $1.30."

ECB Mulls Bolder Moves to Guard Against Low Inflation: http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/...61191077796078


Really? Setting negative interest rates and implementing a genuine QE program would send the EUR only 200 pips lower than current levels? . This guy almost sounds like an idiot to be blunt, LTROS in 2011 look EURUSD from around 1.36 to 1.26. Albeit there was the Italian bond crisis going on at the same time. Negative ECB rates and QE combined with Fed rate hikes will take this pair thousands of pips lower. FX volatility is currently at its lowest levels since before the crisis, and the recent range of the past 6 months has FX investors very complacent.

Just my opinion.

Just reloaded shorts 1.3820, SL 1.3850. Target: Hell.

Will add shorts below 1.3800 and double below 1.3750.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #885,964
  • Mar 25, 2014 8:59pm Mar 25, 2014 8:59pm
Quoting I-Robo
what pattern is this? any expert view? {image}
A little bigger timeframe may show a clear pattern. Your trendline is too steep. Steeper trendlines are less reliable than ones close to 40/45 degree.

I now seldom trade based on trendlines, but here is an example on Daily Timeframe. It gives a wider range from 1.3600 to 1.4200.

It is staying too long near 1.3828/32, indicating buying and selling equilibrium. If this equilibrium breaks, it will move either up or down. The Daily is bullish and therefore I favor longs.
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The Thief of Wall Street
  • #885,965
  • Edited 9:12pm Mar 25, 2014 9:02pm | Edited 9:12pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} This is so true, still how can he forces a European sovereign to modify its fiscal policy to increase employment?! He is just the waiter serving drinks, what the customers do with their beverages, is totally up to them. We have to keep in mind, the authority of central banks are not unlimited...
Draghi told what EU member states should do on fiscal policy just today. Lower exchange rates may help...and France is already lined up for that.
  • #885,966
  • Mar 25, 2014 9:04pm Mar 25, 2014 9:04pm
Quoting Citiboy
Just reloaded shorts 1.3820, SL 1.3850. Target: Hell. Will add shorts below 1.3800 and double below 1.3750.
I wish your the trade, the best of luck ... ( I'm on the short side for any new years high or generally speaking above 1.39)

( Negative interest rate impact is immeasurable , IMHO .. if a slight 0.25% cut took the EURUSD of more than 500 pips, the impact of negative rates could be double or triple that amount.
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #885,967
  • Mar 25, 2014 9:05pm Mar 25, 2014 9:05pm
I have the feeling right now, only the fundamentals know where it is heading, because to me right now the charts says it could go either way.
  • #885,968
  • Mar 25, 2014 9:07pm Mar 25, 2014 9:07pm
I see 1.3850 as pivot, I will remain short below that level. Below 1.3750 puts it firmly in bear camp.
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Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #885,969
  • Mar 25, 2014 9:46pm Mar 25, 2014 9:46pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} As the article accurately noticed, Draghni never used the word " deflation" in a press conference long time ago ... so i think he is doing it on purpose! Growth and unemployment are not his job, he is suppose to be the guy with monetary policy aka the money printing machine! The bold statement sounds a bit Australian, Steven beam of central bank of Austrilia used it on March rate statement. Actually, Austrilia's now tactical plan is devaluing the Aussie in hopes of boosting jobs and growth. Me personally, i never take what Draghni says outside...
i read ur last few posts
very good work ,I'm with u
on the technical side i wait some more time to sell till then...
  • #885,970
  • Mar 25, 2014 9:51pm Mar 25, 2014 9:51pm
still hold my sell brother.. i see 3627-3667 for medium-term

technically daily is stucked and closed below 38 and 50 of weekly fib ( check it out ...the auto fib on first page of my thread ) and is pointing to given range above for bear target using daily time frame.

coffee time here for me


Quoting egkid
{quote} i read ur last few posts very good work ,I'm with u on the technical side i wait some more time to sell till then...
not euphoria follower
  • #885,971
  • Mar 25, 2014 10:02pm Mar 25, 2014 10:02pm
Quoting egkid
{quote} i read ur last few posts very good work ,I'm with u on the technical side i wait some more time to sell till then...
That's good to know It's also good to see you back ...

For now, gentlemen/ gentlewomen: It's getting dangerously late and me go to sleep, i must Good night to everyone and trade safe
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #885,972
  • Mar 25, 2014 10:04pm Mar 25, 2014 10:04pm
Quoting iqyu5an
still hold my sell brother.. i see 3627-3667 for medium-term technically daily is stucked and closed below 38 and 50 of weekly fib ( check it out ...the auto fib on first page of my thread ) and is pointing to given range above for bear target using daily time frame. coffee time here for me {quote}
Check you chart again 3960 will break and we go higher
Cya @London
  • #885,973
  • Mar 25, 2014 10:05pm Mar 25, 2014 10:05pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} That's good to know It's also good to see you back ... For now, gentlemen/ gentlewomen: It's getting dangerously late and me go to sleep, i must Good night to everyone and trade safe
me too
cya@London
  • #885,974
  • Mar 25, 2014 10:18pm Mar 25, 2014 10:18pm
please not break 3960 mate..coz i sell from 394x ...

here is daily TF with weekly fib : 2 scheme . let see how 374x handle this..

c ya


Quoting egkid
{quote} Check you chart again 3960 will break and we go higher Cya @London
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not euphoria follower
  • #885,975
  • Mar 25, 2014 10:52pm Mar 25, 2014 10:52pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} possible db atm,, as long as that high is unbroken then a break in the db should produce 3620... w/o a break one is pissing in the wind.. norm is still higher and would probably set up higher.. a eu entry at the obvious 3810 is one possible entry after high break. there is another smaller setup for 3940, on that one the low today has to hold and a long entry later may be 3795,,,,all entries up till the low (the closer to the the low the better r/r on a successful trade).... but atm bulls need a higher high before looking...
here now and with a hh, it will probably come back once again. i may not get it, but i look for 3795. and then a possible hh over yesterdays high.. then back to 3795. the bulls have been pend up a week +. a move may not look back.. still 3899 and some higher.. looking to short from higher soon.. probably after 4035 or 4146,,, those 2 minors pullback could be 3795 or 3810 w/o a LL.. if we are going to make a hh we are already in the launch zone at 3810... i prefer 3795/3747 that about 48 pips of risk from 3795
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #885,976
  • Mar 25, 2014 10:53pm Mar 25, 2014 10:53pm
Quoting iqyu5an
please not break 3960 mate..coz i sell from 394x ... here is daily TF with weekly fib : 2 scheme . let see how 374x handle this.. c ya {quote} {image}
3966 is safe for now, keep your shorts charts are clearer on swissy, weekly, shes been dribbling west since mid to late 2011 following the SNB intervention, not too bad an inverted H&S Im not that keen on USD presently but I am keen on SNB jumping in if she gets much lower, CHF could be the new market driver, Yen,s done her dash last couple of years, keep and eye on sissy, if she starts to fly eu will plummet, sdly wont help my GC shorts but I prefer eu to dump anyway:-) problem is I still can see kiwi and aussie continuing north which is confusing, but I actually dont mid if they keep climbing ready for "May" Aussie has a nice inverted H&S Daily with a bigger one on weekly and the daily neckline has already pierced, im not suggesting there is a buy on either just yet s would be buying resistance, but if resistance gives, could be a nice month of buying them ahead, all depends on their next move reject or break resistance
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #885,977
  • Mar 25, 2014 11:02pm Mar 25, 2014 11:02pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} here now and with a hh, it will probably come back once again. i may not get it, but i look for 3795. and then a possible hh over yesterdays high.. then back to 3795. the bulls have been pend up a week +. a move may not look back.. still 3899 and some higher.. looking to short from higher soon.. probably after 4035 or 4146,,, those 2 minors pullback could be 3795 or 3810 w/o a LL.. if we are going to make a hh we are already in the launch zone at 3810... i prefer 3795/3747 that about 48 pips of risk from 3795
i am pro hh, because we never went back to 3899 norm,,, and a hh would now in the st target 1.4... along with the 1.4146 from last year
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #885,978
  • Mar 25, 2014 11:05pm Mar 25, 2014 11:05pm
gbp looks like a more sensible trade. short. expecting 1.6360
  • #885,979
  • Mar 25, 2014 11:08pm Mar 25, 2014 11:08pm
Quoting giveachance
gbp looks like a more sensible trade. short. expecting 1.6360
same here.. looking to s it 6675 and not before 6590, aud 9600 and not before 9500
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #885,980
  • Mar 25, 2014 11:12pm Mar 25, 2014 11:12pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} same here.. looking to s it 6675 and not before 6590, aud 9600 and not before 9500
aussie I went wrong yesterday and shorted. learnt my lesson. it was deep in my head that techs wanted 0.9250 and 0.9320. is till shorted. took a small loss. will focus on gbp today
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