Are support and resistance levels predetermined? | Page 86 | Forex Factory

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Are support and resistance levels predetermined?

  • #1,701
  • Mar 20, 2014 12:41pm Mar 20, 2014 12:41pm
Quoting jmss59
{quote} their baseline (pink line) is erroneous, should be 1.3851
Thank you. Now we have similar looking charts
  • #1,702
  • Mar 20, 2014 4:46pm Mar 20, 2014 4:46pm
Quoting jmss59
activated a sell in this pair GU {image}
Hi JM, so according to T5_103F rule, right now since the price has fallen from lower phase 23.6 to 76.4, the trend is bearish?
If it is moving another phase downward then am I right to assume the price will go further south towards 50 line?
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  • #1,703
  • Mar 20, 2014 5:02pm Mar 20, 2014 5:02pm
I think the whole system F means You enter the trades when, the condition fails [T5_103F]

Bobi stated : "If price can not complete it journey and can break its opposite
breakout level , then we can say trend is changed and will complete
the opposite direction (90% of the times will move to 100% level of
opposite phase) . But the missed target will be still valid to be met
in future."

So the whole picture is, you take the trade NOT to take the trade when price breaks 36 or 61, but when the condition fails.
Bobi didn't stated the probability of trades when price breaks, [from 0%-50% maybe], but Bobi stated the probability when this fails [90% up]

Cheers !
May the odds be ever in your favor
  • #1,704
  • Mar 20, 2014 11:43pm Mar 20, 2014 11:43pm
Quoting shon9178
{quote} Hi JM, so according to T5_103F rule, right now since the price has fallen from lower phase 23.6 to 76.4, the trend is bearish? If it is moving another phase downward then am I right to assume the price will go further south towards 50 line? {image}
It depends what you mean by the trend. You could say the trend on this template may be down, but on larger templates its up. According to this templates rules moving from one phase (crossing 100% line) to another doesn't really mean anything on it own. If price cross the 76.4% line by 7 pips (having travelled from the 23.6% in the phase above), then you have a short signal with a 40 pip target.

PS - there isn't anything in the rules that says price must reach 50%
  • #1,705
  • Mar 20, 2014 11:53pm Mar 20, 2014 11:53pm
Quoting HanHanid
I think the whole system F means You enter the trades when, the condition fails [T5_103F] Bobi stated : "If price can not complete it journey and can break its opposite breakout level , then we can say trend is changed and will complete the opposite direction (90% of the times will move to 100% level of opposite phase) . But the missed target will be still valid to be met in future." So the whole picture is, you take the trade NOT to take the trade when price breaks 36 or 61, but when the condition fails. Bobi didn't stated the probability of trades...
T4F is used for detecting trend change and is based on a failed setup. This doesn't apply to T5_103F though. Any T5_103F signal is valid, but its always sensible to aim for the ones that are in line with a larger template target.
  • #1,706
  • Mar 20, 2014 11:57pm Mar 20, 2014 11:57pm
activated a bull in the AU pair
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  • #1,707
  • Mar 21, 2014 12:03am Mar 21, 2014 12:03am
I hope that is forming an impulsive wave up to the price reaches the expected goal.
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  • #1,708
  • Mar 21, 2014 12:38am Mar 21, 2014 12:38am
Traders my opertativa is: Operate only the T-103 template and apply the operating rules of the breakdown of 38.2 and 61.8 , target 37 pips profit and stop of 37 pips (I use stop because I do not like myself suffer great DD ) , relative reward ratio risk / 1:1, but where I give a lot of importance is the MONEY MANAGEMENT.

We know the system works very well but there is a risk that some operations remain open for ever and ever , I resolved to stop this , if an operation is closed by the stop - as I have the confidence that the system is very good and gives few glitches - the following entry in the pair failed to do twice the position ( we could say that is a controlled martingale ) , ie 0.50 batch operation first position, if it fails in the next step will come with 1 lot, and if this also fails , the next I will come with double, with 2 lots , so on until the price go in our favor and regain the lost .

I have done the backtesting MONEY MANAGEMENT and gives very good results, open up lots 4 .

THIS OPERATION GIVES ME A BIG TRANQUILITY.

Hope you helps.
  • #1,709
  • Mar 21, 2014 12:47am Mar 21, 2014 12:47am
Quoting jmss59
Traders my opertativa is: Operate only the T-103 template and apply the operating rules of the breakdown of 38.2 and 61.8 , target 37 pips profit and stop of 37 pips (I use stop because I do not like myself suffer great DD ) , relative reward ratio risk / 1:1, but where I give a lot of importance is the MONEY MANAGEMENT. We know the system works very well but there is a risk that some operations remain open for ever and ever , I resolved to stop this , if an operation is closed by the stop - as I have the confidence that the system is very good...
Helpful post JMSS59 - the MM can be the achilles heel for Abonacci. Just to clarify, you will have 4 attempts at a level 0.5, 1, 2, and 4 for the final one?
  • #1,710
  • Mar 21, 2014 12:54am Mar 21, 2014 12:54am
Quoting jmss59
Traders my opertativa is: Operate only the T-103 template and apply the operating rules of the breakdown of 38.2 and 61.8 , target 37 pips profit and stop of 37 pips (I use stop because I do not like myself suffer great DD ) , relative reward ratio risk / 1:1, but where I give a lot of importance is the MONEY MANAGEMENT. We know the system works very well but there is a risk that some operations remain open for ever and ever , I resolved to stop this , if an operation is closed by the stop - as I have the confidence that the system is very good...
Or do you mean that if you have a long signal (0.50), and it fails, hits your SL and triggers a short signal, you will take the short (1.0). Or do you double up only in the direction of the first trade?
  • #1,711
  • Mar 21, 2014 12:58am Mar 21, 2014 12:58am
Quoting hollowhead
{quote} Helpful post JMSS59 - the MM can be the achilles heel for Abonacci. Just to clarify, you will have 4 attempts at a level 0.5, 1, 2, and 4 for the final one?
I made backtesting from the oldest year 2,013 in GU, EU and AU pairs, and the maximum number of failed trades has been this, however if the price again has failed in the last operation, the following would turn 8 lots.
We know that the martingale is at risk, but the reliability of the system gives confidence and tranquility.
  • #1,712
  • Mar 21, 2014 1:11am Mar 21, 2014 1:11am
Quoting hollowhead
{quote} Or do you mean that if you have a long signal (0.50), and it fails, hits your SL and triggers a short signal, you will take the short (1.0). Or do you double up only in the direction of the first trade?
No matter which direction the price is always the next step, be it sell or bull either.

You must be aware of the imprecision of the system, although the movements usually hit the desired objectives sometimes not, yesterday I went into the GU 0.3 pips and then he turned and reached for 1.4 pips stop. This can be for several reasons. You may modify any news movement, or that the price stops at a significant number - usually 0 or 5 -, or movement simply ran out of steam a bit sooner than expected.

These imprecision will always will be and we must have a suitable MONEY MANAGEMENT to meet the price movement.
  • #1,713
  • Mar 21, 2014 1:22am Mar 21, 2014 1:22am
activated a sell in the GU pair
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  • #1,714
  • Mar 21, 2014 1:31am Mar 21, 2014 1:31am
GU. Bears seem to have much strength, so far there has not been any significant pull-back, hopefully the price reaches his goal.
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  • #1,715
  • Mar 21, 2014 2:59am Mar 21, 2014 2:59am
activated a bull in the EU pair
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  • #1,716
  • Mar 21, 2014 3:04am Mar 21, 2014 3:04am
I hope to reach the desired goal
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  • #1,717
  • Edited Mar 23, 2014 1:48am Mar 22, 2014 12:19pm | Edited Mar 23, 2014 1:48am
My weekly analysis - not a lot of change since last weekend.

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  • #1,718
  • Mar 22, 2014 1:33pm Mar 22, 2014 1:33pm
do i need the indicator ? or can i draw the levels myself?
Everyday better.
  • #1,719
  • Mar 22, 2014 3:21pm Mar 22, 2014 3:21pm
Quoting hollowhead
My weekly analysis - not a lot of change since last weekend. {image}{image}{image}
Hi Steve

I also have in GU T5_1_103 Bearish TP=1.64393 20-Mar
  • #1,720
  • Mar 23, 2014 1:49am Mar 23, 2014 1:49am
Quoting mehmed92
{quote} Hi Steve I also have in GU T5_1_103 Bearish TP=1.64393 20-Mar
Thanks for spotting that Mehmed - I've updated it.
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