Sonic R. System

Alright. I will search something from there to fit in.

Nevertheless, thank you Traderathome for sharing pvsra. I'm going to experiment some more with it.

I would say, all that matters is the chart. I.e Are the MM's bulls or bears? I know TAH has said this a lot but its even better experiencing it firsthand and reinforcing it..
What I am trying to get across strongly is this, the data of the news doesn't matter, its where the MM's have their money that does. Of course we still can't know if the MM's will use news events to further hike price up for further building during some times, but we definitely can think of the news as potential inititiations of the "Run-for-profit" phases we all so anticipate, the example of UCad given is a testimony to this.

Template 2014 are here - post #1: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...59#post7348659

EU M15 Classic?

one of the major RULE for classic entry is that ENTRY SHOULD BE WITHIN LONDON SESSION
please take note

ThunderDome,

I only need to say this once to you. Read Post#1 and follow all instructions and heed all warnings.

It is possible to try to analyze price, volume and S&R all together as we do (PVSRA) without our template. But what we have on our template is less a diversion to price action itself, and more the harmonious blending of those things that enable PVSRA with the greatest accuracy and ease. Your results will be less accurate and will come only with much greater effort.

It therefore appears, you are not interested in our PVSRA or the Sonic R. System, but in trying to trade with just price action, your own skill at S&R and now by adding volume to your considerations. Of course, you as with any trader, have the right to trade as you wish.

In my opinion, though, I look at you as a person driving down the road in the rain,....in a car with wooden wheels that are perfectly round but inflexible and with your hand out the side window wiping the rain off the windshield as you go, because you refuse the aid of windshield wipers!

If you are unwilling to adapt and adopt, that is fine, but cease posting and continue just viewing since you have no intentions of being a Sonicer. Many others do it this way out of respect for the value of the information available here and with respect for the stated purpose of the thread itself as a manual for the Sonic R. System. Please show the same respect.

As you go along with your own attempts, perhaps you can find the answers to your questions simply by following our lead, because Sonicers are not likely to waste their time with you in such an endeavor. We have "been there, done that."

-tah

The first grey candle break up from dragon is within LONDON session

If I place a buy limit there, my entry will be within LONDON session~

Anyway, thanks for the advice )

Your entry was during the LS, so okay on that point.

Your PA wave was fine, so okay there also.

The problem with the trade is that you entered with known resistance right in your lap! Plus, you can see this is in a down trend. Plus, you should know by now the importance of key S&R, like whole numbers, to the MMs that are bears. They prefer to build short above key S&R.

Therefore, you should have waited to see what would happen. If the MM were bulls and moved the price higher, there will come a retrace for a long entry. If the MMs were bears, they might push the price up and that move might be successfully traded long, but the better trade would be to wait for the top of the bear move up, the top of their retrace, and look for a short Classic setup.

What disturbs me here is that this was all explained in an earlier post:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...08#post7354408

Further more, look at the H1 chart, then look at the PVSRA chart. Do you see any resemblance?

-tah

I will respect this.

"I'll vanish like smoke drifting up in the air,
And no one will miss me at all!
Like thousands who lived once and sank in despair..."

All the best to you and all sonicers
Green pips and trade well

I closed my 3 orders with profit. I don't keep to Monday. Thanks for all. nice weekend

Hi Prof TAH,

Thanks for the advice, still learning, this is certainly beneficial to my trading.

Happy Weekends!

Closed at the end of the wire. I don't hold over the weekend.

Was hoping the strength of the Yen would have brought this down like the other pairs today--and following weakness shown in yesterday's London session.

Only showing weakness at the top of the previous highs with no selling interest made it a riskier trade, but this pair is a lot less volatile than the other JPY pairs and still [can] make decent moves.

Maybe next week it's attempt an approach @ 88 again.

Some pips are better than no pips I suppose.

Good weekend to all

GU Next week.....?

After the end of the week I like to look at all the pairs, and take not where price is on "the Big Picture"

I've attached some charts--- I don't claim to be an artist-- to support either trend continuation, or at least a bounce back to the 1.6600 area--as [most times] the market like to be harmonious.

We've had a nice 2-phase dump session [broken into a 3-drive pattern]--ending fantastically yesterday with high volume selling down towards a support cluster--with a bounce and consolidation happening--with a nice hourly buyer interest volume bar happening today.

Price failed to reach below the quarter area though--I expect some sort of spike below 75 and even to 50 before heading north.

1.6600 has area of interest-- pattern confluence for a 2nd touch of the area, as well as a descending trendline from the tops.

Daily shows price near trendline--we still have a HH in the overall picture, so it's best to follow the trend

PVSRA Results for 1st Fifty One Weeks
The following are the results of my trading the Sonic R. System using PVSRA to determine if it is a bull or bear market, and then trading the price action I see.

Week ending 04/05
1289 pips gained, 7 trades totaling 19 parts (18 parts winners), averaging 67+ pips per each of all parts.

Week ending 04/12
1891 pips gained, 9 trades totaling 28 parts (all parts winners), averaging 67+ pips per each of all parts.

Week ending 04/19
2160 pips gained, 9 trades totaling 31 parts (29 parts winners), averaging 69+ pips per each of all parts.

Week ending 04/26
2640 pips gained, 6 trades totaling 34 parts (all parts winners), averaging 77+ pips per each of all parts.

Week ending 05/03
2530 pips gained, 6 trades totaling 24 parts (23 parts winners), averaging 105+ pips per each of all parts.

Week ending 05/10
3050 pips gained, 7 trades totaling 33 parts (all parts winners), averaging 92+ pips per each of all parts.

Week ending 05/17
1590 pips gained, 7 trades totaling 16 parts (all parts winners), averaging 99+ pips per each of all parts.

Week ending 05/24
3980 pips gained, 7 trades totaling 40 parts (33 parts winners), averaging 99+ pips per each of all parts.

Week ending 05/31
4003 pips gained, 5 trades totaling 37 parts (34 parts winners), averaging 108+ pips per each of all parts.

Week ending 06/07
9813 pips gained, 9 trades totaling 61 parts (53 parts winners), averaging 160+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 06/14
3900 pips gained, 2 trades totaling 15 parts (all parts winners), averaging 260+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 06/21
4620 pips gained, 3 trades totaling 33 parts (all parts winners), averaging 140+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 06/28
12,120 pips gained, 8 trades totaling 86 parts (82 parts winners), averaging 140+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 07/05
3,440 pips gained, 2 trades totaling 22 parts (18 parts winners), averaging 156+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 07/12
14,143 pips gained, 11 trades totaling 125 parts (115 parts winners), averaging 113+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 07/19
215 pips gained, 2 trades totaling 7 parts (all parts winners), averaging 30+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 07/26
1,170 pips gained, 2 trades totaling 25 parts (16 parts winners), averaging 46+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 08/02
10,850 pips gained, 8 trades totaling 102 parts (87 parts winners), averaging 106+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 08/09
7,784 pips gained, 4 trades totaling 72 parts (50 parts winners), averaging 108+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 08/16
(-250) pips gained, 1 trades totaling 3 parts (0 parts winners), averaging -83+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 08/23
6,750 pips gained, 3 trades totaling 49 parts (42 parts winners), averaging 137+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 08/30
6,785 pips gained, 8 trades totaling 68 parts (64 parts winners), averaging 99+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 09/06
178 pips gained, 2 trades totaling 6 parts (all parts winners), averaging 29+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 09/13
2,330 pips gained, 3 trades totaling 40 parts (34 parts winners), averaging 58+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 09/20
64,268 pips lost, 8 trades totaling 107 parts (6 parts winners), averaging -600 pips per each of all parts

Week ending 09/27
364 pips gained, 4 trades totaling 16 parts (8 parts winners), averaging 22+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 10/04
6,710 pips lost, 7 trades totaling 27 parts (11 parts winners), averaging -419 pips per each of all parts

Week ending 10/11
586 pips lost, 8 trades affected, 42 parts involved (34 parts gain, 7 parts lose), averaging -14 pips per each of all parts

Week ending 10/18
19,611 pips lost, 6 trades affected, 76 parts involved (14 parts gain, 62 parts lose), averaging -213 pips per each of all parts

Week ending 10/25
14,401 pips lost, 8 trades affected, 77 parts involved (0 parts gain, 77 parts lose), averaging -66 pips per each of all parts

Week ending 11/01
8,320 pips gained, 4 trades affected, 105 parts involved (101 parts gain, 4 parts lose), averaging +79 pips per each of all parts

Week ending 11/08
7,527 pips gained, 3 trades affected, 78 parts involved (78 parts gain, 0 parts lose), averaging 96+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 11/15
2,504 pips gained, 3 trades affected, 8 parts involved (5 parts gain, 3 parts lose), averaging 313+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 11/22
9,875 pips gained, 25 trades affected, 176 parts involved (157 parts gain, 19 parts lose), averaging 56+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 11/29
4,833 pips lost, 11 trades affected, 230 parts involved (138 parts gain, 95 parts lose), averaging -21 pips per each of all parts

Week ending 12/06
4,335 pips lost, 7 trades affected, 27 parts involved (17 parts gain, 10 parts lose), averaging -160 pips per each of all parts

Week ending 12/13
3,033 pips lost, 3 trades affected, 12 parts involved (7 parts gain, 5 parts lose), averaging -253 pips per each of all parts

Week ending 12/20
620 pips gained, 3 trades affected, 6 parts involved (4 parts gain, 2 parts lose), averaging +103 pips per each of all parts

Week ending 12/27
2,097 pips lost, 4 trades affected, 11 parts involved (5 parts gain, 6 parts lose), averaging -190 pips per each of all parts

Week ending 01/03
702 pips gained, 6 trades affected, 53 parts involved (38 parts gain, 15 parts lose), averaging -13 pips per each of all parts

Week ending 01/10
1,058 pips gained, 4 trades affected, 20 parts involved (19 parts gain, 1 parts lose), averaging 52+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 01/17
9,007 pips gained, 13 trades affected, 97 parts involved (78 parts gain, 19 parts lose), averaging 92+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 01/24
5,938 pips gained, 10 trades affected, 100 parts involved (77 parts gain, 23 parts lose), averaging 59+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 01/31
4,268 pips gained, 60 trades affected, 78 parts involved (71 parts gain, 7 parts lose), averaging 54+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 02/07
11,154 pips gained, 75 trades affected, 115 parts involved (100 parts gain, 15 parts lose), averaging 97+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 02/14
8,721 pips gained, 44 trades affected, 68 parts involved (68 parts gain, 0 parts lose), averaging 128+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 02/21
3,403 pips gained, 41 trades affected, 61 parts involved (58 parts gain, 3 parts lose), averaging 55+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 02/28
3,844 pips gained, 37 trades affected, 78 parts involved (58 parts gain, 20 parts lose), averaging 49+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 03/07
9,190 pips gained, 62 trades affected, 90 parts involved (88 parts gain, 2 parts lose), averaging 102+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 03/14
2,042 pips gained, 13 trades affected, 13 parts involved (13 parts gain, 0 parts lose), averaging 157+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 03/21
381 pips gained, 1 trade affected, 4 parts involved (4 parts gain, 0 parts lose), averaging 95+ pips per each of all parts

All of these trades, all of the trade parts thereof, were posted real-time right here on the Sonic R. System thread, using crystal clear easy to understand charts and explanations regarding PVSRA reasons for entries, whether Classic or Scout trades.

Summary Week Fifty One
75,554 pips banked.
3,014 pips current draw down (net loss of all open PVSRA trades).
72,540 pips net gain (pips banked plus net loss of all open PVSRA trades).
1,422 pips weekly average net gain (weekly average net gain if all open PVSRA trades instantly closed).

Summary Remarks
Our new indicators and templates were released this week and Post #1 of this thread has been updated. Every Sonicer should re-read Post #1. Trading this week was very light, but profitable, with all parts closed at profit and for an average of 95 pips gain per part! Drawdowns are down about 80%.


-tah

congrats on the reduction of the draw down, thats huge.... the amount of people who were poking fun at PVSRA were targeting that specifically...

i am assuming most all from EU / UC finally dropping? or the movement of AU/GA/EA being extremely profitable ATM?

eaymon

PVSRA


What is PVSRA?

PVSRA stands for Price, Volume, Support, Resistance Analysis. The purpose of PVSRA is to:

1. Determine if the MMs (Market Makers) are bulls or bears.
2. Determine if the price movement is in the MM's "Run for Profits" or "Position Building" phase.

Price includes consideration of individual candlestick configurations (example: hammer, engulfing,....see "Essence of Sonic R" in Post #1) as well as any visible pattern (example: Head & Shoulders) and the wave action in general (example: higher H/Ls or lower H/Ls), keeping in mind that prices tend to move in inter-day swings of 100+, 150+, 200+, 250+, etc. pips. Where price might be in a swing can determine if the price movement is in the "Run for Profits" or the "Position Building" phase.

Volume is the count of trades on the broker server (currency size undisclosed) and what we are looking for are notable increases relative to preceding volumes. The M1 chart is excellent for spotting if higher trading activity is occurring at highs or lows. The M1 chart does not reveal the status of MMs continuously due to times of conflicting signals. However, when the MMs activity will provide clues, they will stand out in real-time best on the M1 chart.

Support and Resistance refers primarily to the quarter divisions between whole numbers, with whole numbers, half numbers and finally the 1/4 and 3/4 numbers being important in that order. Other support and resistance areas formed by past price action are also to be considered.


Why Do PVSRA?

Price Action
Price action (including wave analysis) is not by itself a good way to determine the chance for success of a trade “opportunity”. The reason is that at any time the price can move in a totally unexpected fashion.

Volume
Volume, or more accurately the number of trades executed via the broker (with currency size undisclosed) is not by itself a good way to determine the chance for success of a trade “opportunity”. The reason is that at any time the price can move in a totally unexpected fashion.

Support and Resistance
Just because price is at a key S&R area does not by itself help to determine the chance for success of a trade “opportunity”. The reason is that at any time the price can move in a totally unexpected fashion.

PVSRA
The analysis of all three of the above, across multiple TF charts, is a better way to determine the chance for success of a trade “opportunity”. However, at any time the price can move in a totally unexpected fashion.

Building a Trade
Because at any time the price can move in a totally unexpected fashion, a sole trade entry is a disadvantaged way to trade. It is arrogant to think we know the “best” time and place to start a trade. The fact is, Market Makers respond to the cumulative affect of trade entries by moving prices to make them “less than the best”, stopping them out, and increasing their own profits. Being able to compensate for shifting prices caused by the Market Makers, by adding to the trade at various other times and places, is a better way to improve the chance for success of the trade.

Conclusion
The "Truth" about markets is the only thing we can be certain of is that there is nothing we can be certain of. Perform PVSRA to help qualify a trade "opportunity" because it is the best way to do so. Should you enter a trade, do so with the capability and intent to build the trade using multiple small entries instead of a single large entry, in order to take advantage of the Market Makers that are trying to take advantage of you.


How Do We Do PVSRA?

The premise behind PVSRA is that bull MMs prefer buying below key S&R and bear MMs prefer selling above key S&R. It will help us to determine if the MMs are bulls or bears by finding out where (above or below key S&R) they are doing most of their trading. This is not the only consideration, of course, but it is a helpful one. We also need to determine if the MMs are in a "Position Building" phase (running price opposite their status), or if they are in a "Run for Profits" phase (running price per their status). It is the "Run for Profits" phase that we want to trade. There is less risk to us if we are trading in the direction per the status of the MMs when the MMs are pushing the price in that direction. For example, if the MMs are bulls, then we want to trade long, but only when the bull MMs are in their bull "Run for Profits" phase. We do not want to trade long when the bull MMs are in their bull "Position Building" phase, because we cannot know how long that phase will last and the longer it lasts the lower the price is going! Let's see how the MMs work, and how and where they change status.

Starting with the turn of a trend, for example a new trend with prices moving upwards, the MMs have started their bull "Run for Profits" phase. These bull MMs have already been building long positions in the latter part of the previous down trend, and during any ranging of the price before the new up trend started. That was their bull "Position Building" phase. The bull MMs will continue adding longs in the new up trend direction. They will do this during retraces downwards, possibly taking price below key S&R to add longs. This is a long trading opportunity, early in a fresh up trend when the bull MMs are focused on adding longs at retrace lows. At a point during the up trend, the MMs will shift from a bull "Run for Profit" to a bear "Position Building" phase. PVSRA will start showing the MMs as bears instead of bulls. The price will still be moving up, but the bear MMs are now focused on highs as sellers, to close longs and build short. They will still be adding longs at lows in order to continue to profit as they continue to push price up. And they will continue to push the price up in order to deceive longs into buying so there will be liquidity the bear MMs need to close their longs and open shorts. This is where the bear MMs begin the bear "Position Building" phase. It will continue until the price reaches the top and possibly goes to ranging. We cannot know how long or how high bear MMs will push price up during the bear "Position Building" phase, but eventually the bear MMs will turn the price downwards starting the bear "Run for Profits" phase. The bear MMs will continue to add shorts in the new down trend direction. They will do this during retraces upwards, possibly taking price above key S&R to add shorts. This is a short trading opportunity, the time early in a fresh trend down when the bear MMs are focused on adding shorts at retrace highs.

To summarize, think of it this way. Bulls can trend prices down for buying (position building) before they start trending prices up for profit, but even during the early trend up (run for profits) they pull prices back down to add more longs. The trading opportunity here is to trade long on retraces early in the bull "Run for Profits". Bears can trend prices up for selling (position building) before they start trending prices down for profit, but even during the early trend down (Run for Profits) they pull prices back up to add more shorts. The trading opportunity here is to trade short on retraces early in the bear "Run for Profits". It is extremely important that you understand, even though we can determine if the MMs are bulls or bears, we cannot know when they will finish position building and turn prices in the profit making direction. To avoid getting trapped in a trade that is in the "Run for Profits" direction, during a prolonged "Position Building" phase in the opposite direction, it is best to wait for a trading opportunity on a retrace early in the "Run for Profit" phase. This means you will not be trading "tops and bottoms". Instead, you will be performing the analysis we call PVSRA to determine if the MMs are bulls or bears and to determine where the price action is in overall inter-day swings, looking for a corresponding bull or bear "Run for Profits" phase. You will be looking for a Classic setup trading opportunity on a pullback early in the "Run for Profits" phase.


Be Patient, Learning PVSRA Takes Time

Becoming proficient with PVSRA is like becoming proficient with an art. It will take time for you to learn to "read" what the charts have to say. But this is the essence of becoming a successful trader. Price, volume and S&R are totally unrelated "technicals" and are absolutely the three most important "technicals" in trading. When you learn to put these three things together, to see what the chart is saying, you will have mastered what truly matters. You will have mastered how the market really works! This is what indicator dependent traders never master because they are too busy looking for solely price derivative/price lagging indicators to "suggest" to them the future!


-tah

Quoted from TAH regarding the EU;

In this case, the MMs might whisk price back up thru the upper whole number, for some more short building. We cannot know how price will move next, but that is a distinct possibility if they are bears. They will need liquidity for shorting, and a good way to get it is to drive the price up to suck in longs. Cigarguy might be "banking" on such a move being far enough to trade long for decent profit. But, it is a counter-trend play, and under current conditions the MMs could quickly reverse back down after themselves shorting against the sucked in longs, forcing the longs to sell before losing much money, and that selling will fuel the downwards fire.

The safest, least risky trade is to watch for the end of retraces in the "Run for Profits" phase, that leads to a Classic setup for a trade back in the "Run for Profits" direction. Do understand this.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAH,

Yes and Yes. That's exactly what I was thinking as you stated above and as you predicted the MM's did run price back up through the whole number(my blue line), as indicated on the chart and sucked in longs ( and yes I know better must have had a brain F_ _ _ _ !) Also, a strong resistance area straight ahead. Of, course we do not know where it will go from here although I may be closing soon for an embarrassing loss for a trader with my screen time , we shall see.

I noticed some traders previously posted EU entries around this current level. IMO, I would not enter long or short while PA, EMA and the Dragon are all intertwined like spaghetti. I would wait for a clear direction for price, the MA and Dragon to separate and indicate some direction, such as a classic entry or at least show some direction, wait for a pullback and then enter, hopefully during the MM's run for profits. Absent this methodology and PVSRA, the entries are more akin to gambling then trading.

Just my 2 cents!

Regards,
Cigarguy

EU - according to my chart and volume, I would tell that buying has started. The only higher "concern" volume is the blue candle with higher volume I marked as "??" . This volume shows that there is still some supply, but background is supporting longs. I won't tell that it's time to jump longs, of course it takes time and price can go lower in this time, but I don't see any strong bear signs in the background. Just my view of EU.

As you see cigar guy our broker volume is little bit different. Especially this area where are the first yellow marked volume.

loeil,

I was also thinking long until I saw that green candle whacked up above the whole number and then no supporting up volume and I took another look based on TAH's analysis, Of course, it was nearing the end of day on Friday You have a good track record of making correct entries, so your analysis makes sense as well That's what I like about this thread, a fantastic platform to exchange ideas with excellent traders.

Now according to PSVRA - MMs like to build longs below the whole number.

Does it look like ranging is below or above the whole number at the moment? I would say below. And most of the highest volume also below the whole number.

And based my chart and volume I seriously thinking about EU long building next week. But before that I liked to see some test or something. I think that chart will tell us what to do next week