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  • #884,701
  • Mar 20, 2014 5:40am Mar 20, 2014 5:40am
Quoting ehsan55
bears are come... if 3807 break hope to see 1.3737
Price turnback to where, he escaped from there
  • #884,702
  • Mar 20, 2014 5:41am Mar 20, 2014 5:41am
Wow this rout has to stop soon or it'll be another long hard slog for the next few weeks.
At least we know what color this week's candle will be.
  • #884,703
  • Mar 20, 2014 5:43am Mar 20, 2014 5:43am
Quoting ffleo
ok 3782 got hit. my next target 3730. go back to sleep. it is nice to leave open orders on platform while you can sleep.
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #884,704
  • Mar 20, 2014 5:45am Mar 20, 2014 5:45am
ALL SHORT ABOARD !!!
  • #884,705
  • Mar 20, 2014 5:45am Mar 20, 2014 5:45am
Quoting matheszabi
{quote} Still room near me, come with me to 1.36 Must be at least 1 touch to 1.3770: http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...8&d=1394737809
1.3770 touched.Wait for news releases to be in safe
I want to buy PATIENCE
  • #884,706
  • Mar 20, 2014 5:45am Mar 20, 2014 5:45am
Quoting Mr.MaginCole
{quote} Feel like buying at 3735 but t'would have been better if it were a monday.
longs should be well planned...anyway, why dont go with the flow?

due to straightness moved target to 3645. stops moved as well.
expecting some correction soon.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_h1_200314_3.png Size: 34 KB


J
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #884,707
  • Mar 20, 2014 5:47am Mar 20, 2014 5:47am
Just a couple of thoughts:
1. The FED set a goal of 6,5 % unemployment rate. They reach it so now they use a different approach? Why not taper faster? Perhaps labor market is not in good shape (low labor participation rate, incorrect measuring of unemployment rate, ...)
2. She said labor market is improving (really?) and yet more needs to be done (how? by more taper, rate hike?).
3. First rate hike MIGHT happen 6 months after LAST taper. When is LAST taper (no preset course)?
4. All bad data of last months has been due to bad weather. What if weather had a very minimal impact and the numbers continue to be bad. Retail is down, housing market is far from recovery (rate hike won't help) and areas where it didn't snow showed the worse data.
5. After QE ends who is going to buy treasuries? Look at the countries that are buying, none of this data makes sense. Belgium largest buyer with a current account that exceeds GDP?
6. If no one is buying -> higher rates -> is that sustainable with 17 trillion in debt?

This retrace is a panic reaction to a very confusing statement.

sheep following sheep
  • #884,708
  • Mar 20, 2014 5:51am Mar 20, 2014 5:51am
Almost weekly open...almost! Go for it
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #884,709
  • Mar 20, 2014 5:51am Mar 20, 2014 5:51am
Quoting Citiboy
Looks like we are building a little momentum early in London, Im looking for 1.3760 today.

Took off 1/8th of shorts, will add on rallies to 1.3780-1.3800
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #884,710
  • Mar 20, 2014 5:52am Mar 20, 2014 5:52am
Oh man..
first EU sell-off seen after months.. will it go deeper?
Easy to see a touch to 1.372 today if it keeps that way..
Attached Image
  • #884,711
  • Mar 20, 2014 5:52am Mar 20, 2014 5:52am
Quoting PhAnTi'
{quote} longs should be well planned...anyway, why dont go with the flow? due to straightness moved target to 3645. stops moved as well. expecting some correction soon. {image} J
Support 2 level is giving way. 1.37 is Support 3 and Monthly pivot. A rebound may come there.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #884,712
  • Mar 20, 2014 5:53am Mar 20, 2014 5:53am
Pushing down really hard, further shorting opps on the next correction
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 39 KB
  • #884,713
  • Mar 20, 2014 5:55am Mar 20, 2014 5:55am
Dring, weekly open finally reached. 1.372x is next. Waiting for the news now
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #884,714
  • Mar 20, 2014 5:57am Mar 20, 2014 5:57am
Maybe a buying area will be the 50EMA on the daily...maybe
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusddaily3333.png Size: 25 KB
  • #884,715
  • Mar 20, 2014 5:59am Mar 20, 2014 5:59am
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} hi cannot do a chart ATM not at desk. I have some small tf bubbles around 1.376x. But targeting larger tf bubbles 1.366x to 1.371x zone if 1.3760 gives way regards
possible small retrace here, but not worth trading I will hold my shorts.....
  • #884,716
  • Mar 20, 2014 6:08am Mar 20, 2014 6:08am
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} possible small retrace here, but not worth trading I will hold my shorts.....
Retrace could be up to 1.379x, but i won't touch it neither, i'll sell it there instead
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #884,717
  • Mar 20, 2014 6:10am Mar 20, 2014 6:10am
Still not touching eur/usd until Friday or really Monday before going long again
Past glory means nothing on the battlefield
  • #884,718
  • Mar 20, 2014 6:11am Mar 20, 2014 6:11am
1.3760 = bottom for today
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #884,719
  • Mar 20, 2014 6:13am Mar 20, 2014 6:13am
2 years at 0.43%, back to Jan highs.


Another claims number around 310k and you can start pricing in the 200k+ NFP that will really get this going.

Im staying focused on the first week of april. Eurozone CPI, ECB meeting and NFP. I think all three of these event risks will have a significant impact on moving price lower.

I am positioning to continue increasing shorts targeting 1.3480 in April.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #884,720
  • Mar 20, 2014 6:14am Mar 20, 2014 6:14am
Quoting janvdw
Just a couple of thoughts: 1. The FED set a goal of 6,5 % unemployment rate. They reach it so now they use a different approach? Why not taper faster? Perhaps labor market is not in good shape (low labor participation rate, incorrect measuring of unemployment rate, ...) 2. She said labor market is improving (really?) and yet more needs to be done (how? by more taper, rate hike?). 3. First rate hike MIGHT happen 6 months after LAST taper. When is LAST taper (no preset course)? 4. All bad data of last months has been due to bad weather. What if weather...
5. >> they dont have to sterilise the purchases, bernanke has suggested before that one option is to allow the bonds to expire by itself... In that way, no market disruptions to the interest rates. When they all expires, the treasury can repay the fed and thereby reduce the fed balancesheet.

i guess the only issue with this approach is, a drastic increase in the money supply or it has already been in the system and they wont be able to control inflation going foward.

the treasury can just continue its normal operation and issue new notes to mop up the excess liquidity...long term interest rates has to rise so prevent inflation....Interest rates in the US will probably rise faster then ECB's...Europe going to be stuck in the slow growth for a long time since they dont do qe...smart money will follow higher yields...
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