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  • #884,681
  • Mar 20, 2014 4:42am Mar 20, 2014 4:42am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} http://www.alpari.co.uk/ Works for you?
Sorry, was away. Don't know if I can log in there, didn't for ages. But the platform is running allright.
Fail better.
  • #884,682
  • Mar 20, 2014 4:44am Mar 20, 2014 4:44am
Quoting LarryDarrell
{quote} Sorry, was away. Don't know if I can log in there, didn't for ages. But the platform is running allright.
Thanks, it seems it works for some, and doesn't for other.
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #884,683
  • Mar 20, 2014 4:49am Mar 20, 2014 4:49am
Quoting LarryDarrell
{quote} Just wanted to thank you for your input here. Imo it still can go upwards, not only to test the highs, but above 1.41, but it's refreshing to see your perspective about the fundi background and your strategy for the next months to come. Where do you see EU, equities at the end of this Fed rate cycle? Net short myself, aiming for 1.31.
I think EURUSD will end up somewhere in the teens if the Fed hikes to say 1.75% and the ECB is still at 0.25%. It would help drastically if the ECB launches new easing measures which could come this year.

I think equities are vulnerable to a China related shock. Hiking rates is really going to clear out alot of dollar funded carry trades that provide credit to the domestic Chinese economy. This will eventually hit their property market. USDCNY traded well above 6.20 over night which FT referred to as the "red line" that starts creating aproxx 4.8bn losses per 100 pips for Chinese corps.

A significant decline in the Chinese property market, and USDCNY jumping towards the top of the band would be the cataclysmic event that would really take equites off the cliff. China would need to liquidate US and EU bonds to support their currency and economy.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #884,684
  • Mar 20, 2014 4:49am Mar 20, 2014 4:49am
Quoting mejo
{quote} Hi Max! May i ask where your bubbles are located? regards
hi
cannot do a chart ATM not at desk. I have some small tf bubbles around 1.376x. But targeting larger tf bubbles 1.366x to 1.371x zone if 1.3760 gives way

regards
  • #884,685
  • Mar 20, 2014 4:49am Mar 20, 2014 4:49am
In my view, a fundamental change has begun where the USD is king again and the rest will follow as best they can. This change in the dollar should be pervasive and continue throughout this year and next if the US numbers show strength. If that is the case, I would not expect euro or gbp strength to return save for the normal technical bounces. How far can the euro drop? it is impossible to guess. It will depend a lot on inflation numbers for the eu. This is good news for Draghi and Europe.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #884,686
  • Mar 20, 2014 4:50am Mar 20, 2014 4:50am
Looks like lots of EURUSD bulls who does their analysis anything lower than the EURUSD monthly chart got caught by the Bull trap we have seen....
Looking like a damn good rejection the downtrend on the monthly chart since 2008... seems like that downtrend resistance isnt going to be broken afterall....
needless to say fundamentally... there is really much reason to warrant a strong EURO when ECB and Merkel hinted that Europe would prefer a lower Euro to compete on exports worldwide....

Ukraine crisis and the EURO being a risk pair creeping up was an early signal of something coiling up.....

50% monthly fibo rejection + 2008 downtrendline rejection.

let the bear cycle begin.
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We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #884,687
  • Mar 20, 2014 4:53am Mar 20, 2014 4:53am
What to do .... What to do. Looking for really good opportunities for longs. (H4)
Attached Image
  • #884,688
  • Mar 20, 2014 5:01am Mar 20, 2014 5:01am
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} I think EURUSD will end up somewhere in the teens if the Fed hikes to say 1.75% and the ECB is still at 0.25%. It would help drastically if the ECB launches new easing measures which could come this year. I think equities are vulnerable to a China related shock. Hiking rates is really going to clear out alot of dollar funded carry trades that provide credit to the domestic Chinese economy. This will eventually hit their property market. USDCNY traded well above 6.20 over night which FT referred to as the "red line" that starts creating aproxx...
I agree with everything you said except I don´t think China will liquidate US bonds. It would be suicidal. Besides, I think China wants a lower CNY. There could be political pressure from the US as it drops, but no real steps taken to counter it. The US doesn´t want to force China to sell their bonds.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #884,689
  • Mar 20, 2014 5:10am Mar 20, 2014 5:10am
the more slowly we break the 1,374-7 area stop loss of longs the more painful for them
much more better than a spike
  • #884,690
  • Mar 20, 2014 5:19am Mar 20, 2014 5:19am
It looks like a Head and Shoulders is being built in UsdJpy. If Broken, a drop to at least 96.50 should ensue. A drop in the S&P maybe due to Ukraine tensions may be the trigger.
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Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #884,691
  • Mar 20, 2014 5:21am Mar 20, 2014 5:21am
Marshall Gittler on Reuters just now:
Marshall Gittler IronFX Everyone -- including me -- has been waiting for EUR/USD to go down.

However it's been in a range since...well, longer than a year.

I think though that this could be the beginning of the long-awaited breakout on the downside. The reasons are:

finally, we will get a clear divergence of monetary policy. Fed is unambiguously launched on a tightening course, whereas the ECB is facing deflation and may have to ease further.

Plus it went unnoticed yesterday but the US current account is also narrowing.
KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON SHORTING
  • #884,692
  • Mar 20, 2014 5:22am Mar 20, 2014 5:22am
Hard to predict if things has changed or not, so many levels up and down, we can drop a lot and still make a new high this year(i.e.feb2013 1000 pips drop)
we could change trend to bearish as well, retracement is good, will be looking lower to 1,3665 and will decide what to do over there,
As always eager to see COT this week even if there is a lot of opinion flying about it is useless, not for me.
swing it!
  • #884,693
  • Mar 20, 2014 5:23am Mar 20, 2014 5:23am
13333 today
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  • #884,694
  • Mar 20, 2014 5:26am Mar 20, 2014 5:26am
Quoting Alorente
In my view, a fundamental change has begun where the USD is king again and the rest will follow as best they can. This change in the dollar should be pervasive and continue throughout this year and next if the US numbers show strength. If that is the case, I would not expect euro or gbp strength to return save for the normal technical bounces. How far can the euro drop? it is impossible to guess. It will depend a lot on inflation numbers for the eu. This is good news for Draghi and Europe.
thing is that the euro is overrated (in my humble opinion). We do have a lot of congress coming up... Probably they will increase and boost up ESM again to save Greece and others. All in all if someone really wants to buy something, eurusd isnt the right place imho. Intrest rates still at historical low everywhere, question is who starts to increase em again.
Time will tell.

Technically on the daily we need to cross 1.372x to go lower. If monthly closes weak next week we should be good for lower areas.
Anyways, bad us data later might change intratrend and we might look for 1.4 again....

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Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #884,695
  • Mar 20, 2014 5:28am Mar 20, 2014 5:28am
Quoting Mr.MaginCole
What to do .... What to do. Looking for really good opportunities for longs. (H4) {image}
Feel like buying at 3735 but t'would have been better if it were a monday.
  • #884,696
  • Mar 20, 2014 5:33am Mar 20, 2014 5:33am
Glad I fought through a good weeks of bulls, most of my shorts are now profitable, happy days! Thinking the Euro will see some support around 13750, but I personally think it has reached the top for this year.
  • #884,697
  • Mar 20, 2014 5:36am Mar 20, 2014 5:36am
Textbook
EU 1H

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  • #884,698
  • Mar 20, 2014 5:37am Mar 20, 2014 5:37am
ok 3782 got hit. my next target 3730. go back to sleep. it is nice to leave open orders on platform while you can sleep.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #884,699
  • Mar 20, 2014 5:37am Mar 20, 2014 5:37am
So i did some chart analysis to find explanation for this fall. in fact today's daily candle open is a trigger of a big MACD sell signal with a MACD Divergence play, and classical divergence occurs as a trend reversal signal. so dont be surprised if this thing is going down to 1.30....
monthly chart suggests it could go even further lower than 1.30....

Fundamental wise, Europe's still a mess with ukraine and still no fiscal union in the Eurozone. and low inflation is still threatening their economy into deflation....
yet the US is foreseeing rate rise on improving employment figures. and tapering.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #884,700
  • Mar 20, 2014 5:40am Mar 20, 2014 5:40am
play with market profile, weekly pivot and monthly pivot, plus a little trendlines, you wont go wrong. bye, see you guys when i wake up from sleep.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
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