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  • #884,521
  • Mar 19, 2014 6:31pm Mar 19, 2014 6:31pm
This is why technicals are slightly overrated in my view. When I first started I thought the charts were all you needed to know. A strict charts guy would say this is simply a pull back, buy at 1.3800 support.


A fundamentals guys would recognize shifts in market sentiment, and see that other asset classes are point towards continued dollar gains if recent data trends continue.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #884,522
  • Mar 19, 2014 6:36pm Mar 19, 2014 6:36pm
Quoting attila
{quote} you're right. from now on don't take my comments seriously, as I don't trade this anymore. only here to have some laughs.
You told me this earlier, but what is it you don't trade The Eur/Usd or the FOMC Statement ? Personally I don't trade news and try and close all trades before hand, I always seem to get this statements wrong so I don't even try anymore.
  • #884,523
  • Mar 19, 2014 6:39pm Mar 19, 2014 6:39pm
Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} Maybe you could show a chart to sustain what you're saying?
https://trade.etxcapital.com/Reports...tsSnapshot.png for some reason when i paste the chart it doesn't load when i post hence my comment above.
It'll be alright on the night
  • #884,524
  • Mar 19, 2014 6:41pm Mar 19, 2014 6:41pm
Quoting Citiboy
This is why technicals are slightly overrated in my view. When I first started I thought the charts were all you needed to know. A strict charts guy would say this is simply a pull back, buy at 1.3800 support. A fundamentals guys would recognize shifts in market sentiment, and see that other asset classes are point towards continued dollar gains if recent data trends continue.
I will not buy @ 1.38

I'm expecting a complete trend change,

But I'm waiting to see what"s happening
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #884,525
  • Mar 19, 2014 6:42pm Mar 19, 2014 6:42pm
Quoting Citiboy
This is why technicals are slightly overrated in my view. When I first started I thought the charts were all you needed to know. A strict charts guy would say this is simply a pull back, buy at 1.3800 support. A fundamentals guys would recognize shifts in market sentiment, and see that other asset classes are point towards continued dollar gains if recent data trends continue.
Fair. Earlier you mentioned US 2-year note yields rising, could you inform me more on the impact of this? If foreign investors are sellers wouldn't this weaken the dollar?
It'll be alright on the night
  • #884,526
  • Mar 19, 2014 6:43pm Mar 19, 2014 6:43pm
Quoting Citiboy
This is why technicals are slightly overrated in my view. When I first started I thought the charts were all you needed to know. A strict charts guy would say this is simply a pull back, buy at 1.3800 support. A fundamentals guys would recognize shifts in market sentiment, and see that other asset classes are point towards continued dollar gains if recent data trends continue.
it is all in the chart. On the DXY chart, what is the odds that ECB lets the dollar index spikes down below the lower blue line, especially when euro is attacking 1.4? If the dollar spikes down and euro spikes above 1.4, where to stop it?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DXY-153.png Size: 19 KB
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #884,527
  • Mar 19, 2014 6:46pm Mar 19, 2014 6:46pm
Quoting irongoose
{quote} You told me this earlier, but what is it you don't trade The Eur/Usd or the FOMC Statement ? Personally I don't trade news and try and close all trades before hand, I always seem to get this statements wrong so I don't even try anymore.
I don't trade fx spot anymore (still glancing at the charts out of habit)... moved over to commodities, etc.
  • #884,528
  • Mar 19, 2014 6:48pm Mar 19, 2014 6:48pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} it is all in the chart. On the DXY chart, what is the odds that ECB lets the dollar index spikes down below the lower blue line, especially when euro is attacking 1.4? If the dollar spikes down and euro spikes above 1.4, where to stop it? {image}

I can understand the concept of its all int he chart, agreed. However, strictly using charts, in my opinion leaves you without the most important tool of pushing your position.


Your charts dont tell you to take the biggest position you can. Im a fan of George Soros, the guy is the most famous FX spec because he situationally pushes his position to take the largest bet he can when he really feels strongly about the fundamentals. This DXY move is 'just another' daily breakout on the chart, when a year from now you COULD be looking back like "fuck that was when we started pricing in rate hikes... I should have been ultra long"

Everybody has a different approach, but its my intention to make whatever I need for the next 5-10 years on this one Fed rate hike cycle.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #884,529
  • Mar 19, 2014 6:49pm Mar 19, 2014 6:49pm
Quoting attila
{quote} you're right. from now on don't take my comments seriously, as I don't trade this anymore. only here to have some laughs.
wat happen? i tot u were pretty good in EU game?
  • #884,530
  • Mar 19, 2014 6:53pm Mar 19, 2014 6:53pm
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} I can understand the concept of its all int he chart, agreed. However, strictly using charts, in my opinion leaves you without the most important tool of pushing your position. Your charts dont tell you to take the biggest position you can. Im a fan of George Soros, the guy is the most famous FX spec because he situationally pushes his position to take the largest bet he can when he really feels strongly about the fundamentals. This DXY move is 'just another' daily breakout on the chart, when a year from now you COULD be looking back like...
I would not go all in. consistently make 10+ % per month is enough for me. Even if sentiment can change, there may be a time error of days or weeks. When you go all in, a small volatility against you will wipe you out.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #884,531
  • Mar 19, 2014 6:55pm Mar 19, 2014 6:55pm
Quoting johnsmith78
{quote} wat happen? i tot u were pretty good in EU game?
maybe.. just got sick of all the major moves happening while I was sleeping.. there's simply too much work trading the ny session.. there are easier ways to make a buck.
  • #884,532
  • Mar 19, 2014 6:58pm Mar 19, 2014 6:58pm
Quoting attila
{quote} I don't trade fx spot anymore (still glancing at the charts out of habit)... moved over to commodities, etc.
good for you buddy
I am smart than average trader, I simply copy the best.
  • #884,533
  • Mar 19, 2014 6:58pm Mar 19, 2014 6:58pm
Quoting Citiboy
This is why technicals are slightly overrated in my view. When I first started I thought the charts were all you needed to know. A strict charts guy would say this is simply a pull back, buy at 1.3800 support. A fundamentals guys would recognize shifts in market sentiment, and see that other asset classes are point towards continued dollar gains if recent data trends continue.
I don't pay much attention to fundamentals and trade around levels looking for manipulation, I've seen more then once price not behave the way it should have after a new release but looking at a chart and knowing where orders and stops might be sitting made everything very clear.

I'm not saying that the way I've been trained to trade is the only way to go but its what I do, and if I'm wrong it hits my stop loss and no big deal because I no longer risk to much money.
  • #884,534
  • Mar 19, 2014 6:59pm Mar 19, 2014 6:59pm
Quoting Citiboy
This is why technicals are slightly overrated in my view. When I first started I thought the charts were all you needed to know. A strict charts guy would say this is simply a pull back, buy at 1.3800 support. A fundamentals guys would recognize shifts in market sentiment, and see that other asset classes are point towards continued dollar gains if recent data trends continue.
I guess i'm overlooking the very important fact that if bond traders are pricing in a rise in interest rates then currency traders will be doing the same by buying dollars.
It'll be alright on the night
  • #884,535
  • Mar 19, 2014 6:59pm Mar 19, 2014 6:59pm
Quoting attila
{quote} maybe.. just got sick of all the major moves happening while I was sleeping.. there's simply too much work trading the ny session.. there are easier ways to make a buck.
do you have interest to trade ES?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #884,536
  • Mar 19, 2014 7:00pm Mar 19, 2014 7:00pm
Quoting irongoose
{quote} I don't pay much attention to fundamentals and trade around levels looking for manipulation, I've seen more then once price not behave the way it should have after a new release but looking at a chart and knowing where orders and stops might be sitting made everything very clear. I'm not saying they way I've been trained to trade is the only way to go but its what I do, and if I'm wrong it hits my stop loss and no big deal because I no longer risk to much money.
There's a million ways to trade profitably, the journey is finding what works for you. But, once you've come to the end of that journey, it's like having a license to print money.
Yay! Pips for everyone!
  • #884,537
  • Mar 19, 2014 7:01pm Mar 19, 2014 7:01pm
Quoting 786 trading
Hi Guys, I am trying to find the reason and answer of few of my questions; Can you help me; Why it is easy to add more trades in loosing trades? Why it is easy to make losses bigger by holding them and adding more loosers in it than holding the profit. How one can get rid of these diseases? How can we add more trades in profit and also extend the profits? Regards
Do this one day. Find a pair with low volatility, UCad or UChf. See the trend of the day (below/above daily pivot & daily open with no news in sight). Go with a 2x mini lot (0.20 position) against it. As soon as it hits you with -10 pips close your position directly (no sl, manually). Do it 5-10 times. There, now you know how to close your position and not add to the loss.
  • #884,538
  • Mar 19, 2014 7:02pm Mar 19, 2014 7:02pm
CAVEAT: I havent made shit for the past 6 months other than USDCAD longs. When fundies dont go your way you basically breakeven for months. lol
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #884,539
  • Edited 7:19pm Mar 19, 2014 7:03pm | Edited 7:19pm
Quoting Citiboy
This is why technicals are slightly overrated in my view. When I first started I thought the charts were all you needed to know. A strict charts guy would say this is simply a pull back, buy at 1.3800 support. A fundamentals guys would recognize shifts in market sentiment, and see that other asset classes are point towards continued dollar gains if recent data trends continue.
Surprisingly enough i see the fundamentals in a complete direction. in my view the warning shots from the US bonds today look to the that the market is about to roll over for a correction into the 10-20% for the DIA. Aside from that. i see a continues weakened usd gbp output and rising price inflation which leads to overall dollar deflation. Now on the other side draghi and his ecb cohorts will try to Depress the euro in any way possible as much as they can try.

The real story is that low inflation of even a bit of deflation is good for the buying power of EU consumers. no consumer isnt gonna buy houses or cars because the price dropped 2% overall thats a joke. Deflation however is bad for Goverment debt and while i can have a huge talk about it il keep it short and say the gdp to debt ratio here in europe isnt that bad.

in the long term as in Q2 and Q3 i see the euro in the big picture rising compared to the dollar where that level might be i cant predict but its going to be higher than the average PA than it is now.

p.s:. I don't really use technical indicators they just cloud my judgement. For this week im out until Friday or Monday before i get any eur/usd long.
Past glory means nothing on the battlefield
  • #884,540
  • Mar 19, 2014 7:05pm Mar 19, 2014 7:05pm
Quoting attila
{quote} I don't trade fx spot anymore (still glancing at the charts out of habit)... moved over to commodities, etc.
Don't know much about that stuff so that wouldn't be an option for me, but some times I feel like giving up on Forex spot.
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