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  • #884,301
  • Mar 19, 2014 8:57am Mar 19, 2014 8:57am
Quoting Neqrotik
USD will rally and risk on will continue.
How both are possible?
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #884,302
  • Mar 19, 2014 8:59am Mar 19, 2014 8:59am
Quoting Nocturnes
I'm still long You guys waiting?
Same here. Expecting something
  • #884,303
  • Mar 19, 2014 9:13am Mar 19, 2014 9:13am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} How both are possible?
1. Dollar will strengthen. Tapering will cease to exist soon enough. The economy is gradually gaining traction and the fed feels confident about its trajectory than before. Marginal benefit of easing has been negative for some time so any continuation of easing leaves the fed facing all risk and no benefit.

2. Risk-on will continue. Despite whatever bad data recently the fed will be upbeat about the pace of the recovery and is willing to accept a lower threshold of good data in the near term for a willingness to accept the "slow but steady" recovery for the long term and will signal the market today this thinking. Weather will be used to justify the earlier this year bad data and the fed will be optimistic for the future.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #884,304
  • Mar 19, 2014 9:13am Mar 19, 2014 9:13am
Quoting Brassboy
{quote} I would argue it was the other way round. We humans are excellent at detecting patterns (spurious or not). It's the machines that require simple models as they are prone to overfit.
Yea we humans are excellent at detecting patterns and more practical than machines. But this applies in cases that include, for example; non abstract patterns, few dimensional, and a never changing landscape of the learning sets.

In trading stuff we have the opposite. Abstract numbers vs price action plus too many indis will add a higher dimensionality to the problem. Finally ranges and typical levels change over time so the landscape (aka market) is always changing - you have to tune up indicators periodically.

Machine learning use simple models that are prone to overfit, yes. But model parallelism and AI are putting us to shame in many scenarios.
K.I.S.S.
  • #884,305
  • Mar 19, 2014 9:13am Mar 19, 2014 9:13am
Quoting PhAnTi'
{quote} Do not overcomplicate it. You won't make a right decision on trading by comparing 9 indicator windows. Indicators represent the past, so we dont need them. Check out where and why buyers could buy and sellers will sell. Then you will get a brief feeling of how this market moves,turns and breaks. Best, Jonas
Of course the indicator shown the past, simpy I am saying that all (from my point of view) lets think about bullish scenario.
However my fear is the meeting of 20-21 /03 I'm not a magician.
In this case I seriously think that I will not open a trade in the present.
That's all my friend.
Thank you for your suggestions ^-^
  • #884,306
  • Mar 19, 2014 9:13am Mar 19, 2014 9:13am
Easy to see how messed up is the dollar by looking at all USD pairs. None of them are in sync.
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #884,307
  • Mar 19, 2014 9:15am Mar 19, 2014 9:15am
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} 1. Dollar will strengthen. Tapering will cease to exist soon enough. The economy is gradually gaining traction and the fed feels confident about its trajectory than before. Marginal benefit of easing has been negative for some time so any continuation of easing leaves the fed facing all risk and no benefit. 2. Risk-on will continue. Despite whatever bad data recently the fed will be upbeat about the pace of the recovery and is willing to accept a lower threshold of good data in the near term for a willingness to accept the "slow but steady"...
1. USD will strenghten so EURUSD down
2. Risk on will continue so EURUSD up

That's what i meant
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #884,308
  • Mar 19, 2014 9:19am Mar 19, 2014 9:19am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} 1. USD will strenghten so EURUSD down 2. Risk on will continue so EURUSD up That's what i meant

EUR/USD will pull back for sure. Thats about as bearish as I can get right now. But highly questionable that it will change trend direction for sure against the backdrop against the larger theme (CURRENT THEME) for the currency
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #884,309
  • Mar 19, 2014 9:30am Mar 19, 2014 9:30am
Quoting Citiboy
The algo running to sell DXY here is just hilarious, ANY rally is sold, to the point where its so precise to not allow a higher high on hourly charts. obviously volume is low and FOMC will change that, we are definitely coiling up for a big move {image}
Your right there CITI Boy could be one hell of a burst!
rat
  • #884,310
  • Mar 19, 2014 9:31am Mar 19, 2014 9:31am
Quoting kuroro001
Easy to see how messed up is the dollar by looking at all USD pairs. None of them are in sync.
Thats correct Kuroro.

Nothing in sync. Gold Crude Euro Cable Aussie
all doing there own things.
rat
  • #884,311
  • Mar 19, 2014 9:35am Mar 19, 2014 9:35am
Quoting Leijenberg
{quote} Yea we humans are excellent at detecting patterns and more practical than machines. But this applies in cases that include, for example; non abstract patterns, few dimensional, and a never changing landscape of the learning sets. In trading stuff we have the opposite. Abstract numbers vs price action plus too many indis will add a higher dimensionality to the problem. Finally ranges and typical levels change over time so the landscape (aka market) is always changing - you have to tune up indicators periodically. Machine learning use simple...

Whoa whoa, simmer down there Socrates! xD
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #884,312
  • Mar 19, 2014 9:59am Mar 19, 2014 9:59am
if, what if, might, can, may, is crap with a infinite stop. whats it doing.. i can,may,might, shit brown turds if i eat yellow corn. news in 1 hours and more after.. and the result is unknown atm. it may be great news for the usd and still go north tech wise. it may not. one thing for sure regardless of if, what if, might, can, may, its not going south w/o a break of 3878.... and even then its not a certainty.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #884,313
  • Mar 19, 2014 10:09am Mar 19, 2014 10:09am
gbp already broke support yesterday. so it tech wise my be a good short for 5350, after this bounce atm. the eu has not broken support, if it does 3809 or 3719 are targets. the gbp has 300 pips target already. the eu at least atm with a lower break has targets much smaller.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #884,314
  • Mar 19, 2014 10:10am Mar 19, 2014 10:10am
Quoting gatorinla
if, what if, might, can, may, is crap with a infinite stop. whats it doing.. i can,may,might, shit brown turds if i eat yellow corn. news in 1 hours and more after.. and the result is unknown atm. it may be great news for the usd and still go north tech wise. it may not. one thing for sure regardless of if, what if, might, can, may, its not going south w/o a break of 3878.... and even then its not a certainty.
Stop the madness!!!

My short is fully loaded now it's just:
KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON SHORTING
  • #884,315
  • Mar 19, 2014 10:13am Mar 19, 2014 10:13am
Good time to Sell.. I am short @3 let's see how many pips we can make...
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  • #884,316
  • Mar 19, 2014 10:16am Mar 19, 2014 10:16am
Quoting Thirsty
{quote} Stop the madness!!! My short is fully loaded now it's just:
on the sideline myself
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #884,317
  • Mar 19, 2014 10:20am Mar 19, 2014 10:20am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} on the sideline myself
is it ok now?
  • #884,318
  • Mar 19, 2014 10:21am Mar 19, 2014 10:21am
Quoting rattyo
{quote} Your right there CITI Boy could be one hell of a burst!

Good luck with that..bank while you can.

See you at 1.30 in coming months.
  • #884,319
  • Mar 19, 2014 10:25am Mar 19, 2014 10:25am
one these days i will learn to not trade audnzd. this dog never gos up when I buy it.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #884,320
  • Mar 19, 2014 10:29am Mar 19, 2014 10:29am
A burst up or down?
A word to the wise ain't necessary - it's the stupid ones that need advice
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