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  • #4,961
  • Mar 14, 2014 4:04am Mar 14, 2014 4:04am
USD/CAD
Price went on the review, but I did not wait for the volumes, although they were there and you had to open long positions. Today I consider the rise to 1.1120 and 1.1080 to the refund of the price.

http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/deas8...198508_900.png
  • #4,962
  • Mar 16, 2014 2:42pm Mar 16, 2014 2:42pm
Canada reports January retail sales and February CPI at the end of the week. Retail sales are expected to rebound from the -1.8% slide in December. The consensus expects a 0.7% increase. However, the focus will be on the CPI as that is what the Bank of Canada officials have been emphasizing in recent months. Headline CPI is expected to have slowed to 1.0% from 1.5%, and the more (policy) important core measure is expected to slow to 1.1% from 1.4%. Even though the Bank of Canada is still not prepared to cut interest rates in response, the Canadian dollar may suffer.

I think we might test/break 1.1200-1.1300 this week
  • #4,963
  • Mar 17, 2014 11:39am Mar 17, 2014 11:39am
The guys trading USDCAD these days really love their technicals. It respects its horizontal S&R levels so precisely and even the big MAs are acting as S&R nicely.

I am looking to sell if we can break and retest the 1.1046 area down to 1.1000 where I will be buying USDCAD as it is still a very interesting fresh level.
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Learn from yesterday, live for today and hope for tomorrow.
  • #4,964
  • Mar 17, 2014 5:58pm Mar 17, 2014 5:58pm
Quoting TraderRolf
The guys trading USDCAD these days really love their technicals. It respects its horizontal S&R levels so precisely and even the big MAs are acting as S&R nicely. I am looking to sell if we can break and retest the 1.1046 area down to 1.1000 where I will be buying USDCAD as it is still a very interesting fresh level. {image}
US FX dealers talking sell stops right under those lows of 1.1045 (& march 13th low of 1.1043)
USDCAD – Large group of sell stops forming under 1.1045…
Attached Image
  • #4,965
  • Mar 17, 2014 10:58pm Mar 17, 2014 10:58pm
Quoting EmeraldEyes
{quote} US FX dealers talking sell stops right under those lows of 1.1045 (& march 13th low of 1.1043) USDCAD – Large group of sell stops forming under 1.1045… {image}
Yes, confirmed and obvious levels like this one will always have orders waiting for breakout. However, I like to play it more safe and wait for a retest after a break, instead of trading the initial breakout.
Learn from yesterday, live for today and hope for tomorrow.
  • #4,966
  • Mar 17, 2014 11:41pm Mar 17, 2014 11:41pm
Quoting TraderRolf
{quote} Yes, confirmed and obvious levels like this one will always have orders waiting for breakout. However, I like to play it more safe and wait for a retest after a break, instead of trading the initial breakout.
Yep. A fast break (via stops) is more likely to retrace back up bc a lack of sellers left in the area before the downtrend resumes. Either way, its going lower when they execute. Market will dictate it after that.
  • #4,967
  • Mar 18, 2014 10:24am Mar 18, 2014 10:24am
Going short here. Stop and target on chart.
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  • #4,968
  • Mar 18, 2014 11:26am Mar 18, 2014 11:26am
Adjusting stop/target.

Will then try a buy order at same spot as target and I'll give that one a 55 pip stop. Target will be 1.1224.
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  • #4,969
  • Mar 18, 2014 12:45pm Mar 18, 2014 12:45pm
hello
sorry for my english and my low level but i have a question.

What does it means DOWNSIDE RISKS ?
When i read on a news "THE DOWNSIDE RISKS INCREASE" waht does it means? That the risk increases or dsecreases ?

Here an example:

"THE DOWNSIDE RISKS TO INFLATION INCREASE"

It means that thE risk of a rise in CPI is increasing o dercreasing ?

The concept of DOWNSIDE RISKS and the word DOWNSIDE are the things that i don't understand

Sorry again
  • #4,970
  • Mar 18, 2014 1:02pm Mar 18, 2014 1:02pm
Nice day today on the USD/CAD. The 1.1000 area saw many Short-Stop orders underneath and many traders have been caught on the wrong foot when trying to trade a potential breakout. That's why I like to wait for more confirmation :-)
Afterwards the bullish pinbar setup for a perfect long trade. Now trading into previous highs...shall be another interesting day tomorrow
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Learn from yesterday, live for today and hope for tomorrow.
  • #4,971
  • Mar 18, 2014 1:06pm Mar 18, 2014 1:06pm
Going to be buying pullbacks here from now on again, hoping to get in at 1.1110
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #4,972
  • Mar 18, 2014 3:57pm Mar 18, 2014 3:57pm
I don't think my last trade even moved one pip in my favor. Just a straight shot to my stop!

Hopefully this one will work out better. I see a different scenario now. Going short here. Stop/target on chart.
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  • #4,973
  • Mar 18, 2014 5:11pm Mar 18, 2014 5:11pm
Quoting Zappa
I don't think my last trade even moved one pip in my favor. Just a straight shot to my stop! Hopefully this one will work out better. I see a different scenario now. Going short here. Stop/target on chart. {image}
Seriously mate, you just got stopped out of USDCAD and you're re-entering the same trade immediately with a higher stop with a multi-week target. Plus all the pain you had in GBPNZD. It sounds like you're trying to get revenge on the market and need a break. Trade something else like EUR or AUD or just do nothing until GBP employment or FOMC where there will be plenty of opportunities
I lost some money in CAD too today for an even sillier reason (slept through the CAD number and the limit order I left missed my profit target by 2 pips) but I'm moving on... there are better opportunities than trying to fade the bull flag here and you know it... no point having an ego about it
  • #4,974
  • Mar 18, 2014 5:42pm Mar 18, 2014 5:42pm
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} Seriously mate, you just got stopped out of USDCAD and you're re-entering the same trade immediately with a higher stop with a multi-week target. Plus all the pain you had in GBPNZD. It sounds like you're trying to get revenge on the market and need a break. Trade something else like EUR or AUD or just do nothing until GBP employment or FOMC where there will be plenty of opportunities I lost some money in CAD too today for an even sillier reason (slept through the CAD number and the limit order I left missed my profit target by 2 pips) but...
I'll admit, first USDCAD trade was definitely a revenge trade. It was not thought out for very long. I have had my eye on this pair while also trading GBPNZD, but today's USDCAD loss was a trade put on too quickly, I agree.

I've been doing some further analysis on this pair all day, and I think this trade now is a good bet. It has taken some nice stop-loss areas out since the high at 1.1225 (see chart). Meanwhile, I've looked very closely at the three strong bull moves we've had in this latest range, and I think they are more bark than bite. I think this range will break to the downside before it breaks to the upside. And that doesn't mean that it won't eventually break the top of this range. I just don't see it happening first.

I have 1.5% risked on this trade. It is a 1:4 trade. I lost 6% on my three stabs at GBPNZD, and 1% on the USDCAD loss today. So yeah, in this sense I am trying to get it all back with one trade, but this is only coincidence. I just see this as a trade with potential and limited risk. I am having a drawdown right now, but I'm not one to take breaks. Maybe for a couple hours, and then it is back to the grind. I don't have time for breaks.

I appreciate your advise, though, EURUSD Trade. You are definitely correct in saying that the first USDCAD trade I took today was a revenge trade. It was dumb and I know it. This one I am in now is more thought out. EUR and AUD don't look good to me right now for any direction.
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  • #4,975
  • Mar 18, 2014 9:02pm Mar 18, 2014 9:02pm
Quoting EmeraldEyes
{quote} US FX dealers talking sell stops right under those lows of 1.1045 (& march 13th low of 1.1043) USDCAD – Large group of sell stops forming under 1.1045… {image}
Those sell stops were used and abused! Taken advantage of low pricing to bid in to by traders.
  • #4,976
  • Mar 19, 2014 1:11am Mar 19, 2014 1:11am
1.1084 are looking interesting for a quick long. All the confluence is meeting there: previous support & resistance, strong demand level yesterday, all 3 big MAs and 50% FIB level. I'll looking to buy there if we can make it
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Learn from yesterday, live for today and hope for tomorrow.
  • #4,977
  • Mar 19, 2014 3:33am Mar 19, 2014 3:33am
The level is worth a trade with all the confluence meeting there. My trading style is based on high risk-reward-ratios (>1:3) and it meets almost all my criterias.
Learn from yesterday, live for today and hope for tomorrow.
  • #4,978
  • Mar 19, 2014 3:42am Mar 19, 2014 3:42am
Quoting 81raffae
hello sorry for my english and my low level but i have a question. What does it means DOWNSIDE RISKS ? When i read on a news "THE DOWNSIDE RISKS INCREASE" waht does it means? That the risk increases or dsecreases ? Here an example: "THE DOWNSIDE RISKS TO INFLATION INCREASE" It means that thE risk of a rise in CPI is increasing o dercreasing ? The concept of DOWNSIDE RISKS and the word DOWNSIDE are the things that i don't understand Sorry again

If we take the subject of inflation, when they say "the downside risks to inflation increase" they mean inflation is so low that there is a risk it could go lower and become deflation. So the way things are going at the moment the risk of it going lower (downside) has increased.

It's currently at 1.5%, they would like it to be 2%. Here's what they are saying:

The Bank of Canada is more worried about the downside risks to inflation than the upside ones, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said on Thursday, but gave no indication what the next move on interest rates would be.

The central bank has held its key overnight rate at a near-record low of 1 percent since September 2010. It was a touch more dovish in a December 4 statement which kept interest rates on hold, saying the downside risk to inflation appeared to be greater than before.

The statement sparked some market chatter that the bank - which targets a 2-percent inflation rate - might hint at rate cuts. Canada's annual inflation rate in October dropped to a five-month low of 0.7 percent.

"When we are already below target, as we are today, we care more about downside risks than upside ones." Poloz said in the prepared text of a Montreal speech.
"We are prepared to remove monetary stimulus when it's no longer needed to offset the forces that currently are pulling inflation below target," he added later, repeating the bank's view that it would take around two years to get inflation back to target.

Hope it helps.
  • #4,979
  • Mar 19, 2014 4:06am Mar 19, 2014 4:06am
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  • #4,980
  • Mar 19, 2014 10:36pm Mar 19, 2014 10:36pm
USD/CAD looks bearish at the moment.
Take what the market gives you.
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