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  • #884,121
  • Mar 18, 2014 4:12pm Mar 18, 2014 4:12pm
Quoting ForexOracle
What is the logic on the argument that the Euro retracement is past due? Most of the significant retracements in this pair happens between 600 and 700 pip run. This last push barely touched 490 pips. It can fall from here...yes it can. But most of the last bullish moves started to crack above 600 so chillex folks!!
With you here bro. Considerable upside mid-term.
It'll be alright on the night
  • #884,122
  • Edited 4:49pm Mar 18, 2014 4:32pm | Edited 4:49pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} whats the spread been running in there as of late?
2.6 right now, off session..sorry for late, been sleeping.

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  • #884,123
  • Mar 18, 2014 5:25pm Mar 18, 2014 5:25pm
hello.
sorry for my english and the OT. I have posted this question in the 3d about usdcad but i haven't any answer.
what does it means "DOWNSIDE RISKS INCREASE ?" IT means that the risk increase or decrease ?

for example :
When i read in a news : downside risks to inflation increase , it means that there is a risk about a rise or a drop in CPI ?

I searched the meaning of DOWNSIDE RISKS with google but i don't understand the concept

Could you help me please?
  • #884,124
  • Mar 18, 2014 5:26pm Mar 18, 2014 5:26pm
so no war for now,, but why this ping pong on EU - looks like they want to know what is out there above 1.40
Evening !
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #884,125
  • Mar 18, 2014 5:30pm Mar 18, 2014 5:30pm
Quoting 81raffae
hello. sorry for my english and the OT. I have posted this question in the 3d about usdcad but i haven't any answer. what does it means "DOWNSIDE RISKS INCREASE ?" IT means that the risk increase or decrease ? for example : When i read in a news : downside risks to inflation increase , it means that there is a risk about a rise or a drop in CPI ? I searched the meaning of DOWNSIDE RISKS with google but i don't understand the concept Could you help me please?

Central banker talk for the possibility of prices (CPI) falling, or going down.

downside risks to prices, or economic growth are usually veiled words to communicate subtle dovishness (trying to convey weaker policy... lower rates and currency)
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #884,126
  • Mar 18, 2014 5:51pm Mar 18, 2014 5:51pm
Incredible - opened and closed on daily at exact same price.
  • #884,127
  • Mar 18, 2014 6:01pm Mar 18, 2014 6:01pm
Probably put up or shut up time once again ahead of FOMC tomorrow. My ideas are usually based 2/3rds around fundamentals and the picture here is getting almost as bearish as Ive ever been on a risk:reward basis on eurusd.

Selling 1.3930

SL on 1/4th at 1.3952
SL on half at 1.3968
SL on 1/4th at 1.4025


Will increase shorts on a break of 1.3880, and Increase again on a break of 1.3850. Implied Vol on all the majors is EXTREMELY low,so any move will likely be huge and fast. On the EUR side, recent PMIs and ZEW sentiment are weak. Hate to beat a dead horse but EURCNY is now almost 4% higher than where it was a month ago, which I am thinking could take the next eurozone inflation print VERY close to 0.

On the Dollar side,I Think Yellen will shift sentiment tomorrow, recognizing recent weakness as weather related, may mention wage growth from the last NFP. I also think pressure on the dollar from multiple sources is subsiding, in order I see these as Chinese Diversification, AQR deleveraging, Europe equity inflows, Vodafone Selling. FOMC hawkishness could possibly send the Chinese diversification into reverse if USDCNY pushes above 6.20 towards the top of the band, that would be an extremely risk off scenario in my book. My near term view is risk averse, this should help push EURUSD lower.

Given where unemployment claims have been coming in the past 2 weeks, another print on thursday below 320k should seal the deal for an NFP north of 200k.


Seems like we are all waiting for the move above 1.40, above 1.42. What if that never comes.... I think the next 24 hours will decide.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #884,128
  • Mar 18, 2014 6:16pm Mar 18, 2014 6:16pm
Quoting Citiboy
Probably put up or shut up time once again ahead of FOMC tomorrow. My ideas are usually based 2/3rds around fundamentals and the picture here is getting almost as bearish as Ive ever been on a risk:reward basis on eurusd. Selling 1.3930 SL on 1/4th at 1.3952 SL on half at 1.3968 SL on 1/4th at 1.4025 Will increase shorts on a break of 1.3880, and Increase again on a break of 1.3850. Implied Vol on all the majors is EXTREMELY low,so any move will likely be huge and fast. On the EUR side, recent PMIs and ZEW sentiment are weak. Hate to beat a dead...

1.3930 shorted yesterday and still holding it... 1.3995 is waiting as well in case it reached there
  • #884,129
  • Mar 18, 2014 6:17pm Mar 18, 2014 6:17pm
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} Central banker talk for the possibility of prices (CPI) falling, or going down. downside risks to prices, or economic growth are usually veiled words to communicate subtle dovishness (trying to convey weaker policy... lower rates and currency)
I don't understand the general concept of DOWNSIDE RISKS , because i have not find a corresponding italian word.
It means that the risk about a definite situation is decreasing ?

In the example :
-downside risks to inflation increase - meaning that the risk of the rise of prices (cpi) is decreasing. Is it right?
  • #884,130
  • Mar 18, 2014 6:20pm Mar 18, 2014 6:20pm
I don't mind if its going to 1.43, and I don't mind buying this at some point - just not right here. We are due a decent correction not the pathetic excuse we had last Thursday.
  • #884,131
  • Mar 18, 2014 6:21pm Mar 18, 2014 6:21pm
Quoting 81raffae
{quote} I don't understand the general concept of DOWNSIDE RISKS , because i have not find a corresponding italian word. It means that the risk about a definite situation is decreasing ? In the example : -downside risks to inflation increase - meaning that the risk of the rise of prices (cpi) is decreasing. Is it right?

Probably because downside is one of those snide financial trader terms. I dont even know if its a real word, only finance guys use it.

What you have said is correct though.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #884,132
  • Mar 18, 2014 6:25pm Mar 18, 2014 6:25pm
İt seems like it will rise. May be they want us to think like this.. With bad news from China and Europe and Russia, if euro is going up it means there is no fundamental reasons behind it.. all these up and downs are just for confusing traders, to make them change their mind very often, hedging their positions, and when they will see that almost 50% of trades are long they will go short.. will wait there and watch how retailers deploy longs and close their short positions.. and again will go down.. , down.. that was the way it went up, that will be the way it will go down..
  • #884,133
  • Mar 18, 2014 6:26pm Mar 18, 2014 6:26pm
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  • #884,134
  • Mar 18, 2014 6:29pm Mar 18, 2014 6:29pm
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} Probably because downside is one of those snide financial trader terms. I dont even know if its a real word, only finance guys use it. What you have said is correct though.
So Downside risk= less risk
thank you
  • #884,135
  • Mar 18, 2014 6:32pm Mar 18, 2014 6:32pm
Quoting 81raffae
{quote} So Downside risk= less risk thank you
My god. Downside risk is the risk of it going down.
  • #884,136
  • Mar 18, 2014 6:37pm Mar 18, 2014 6:37pm
Quoting Brassboy
{quote} My god. Downside risk is the risk of it going down.
  • #884,137
  • Mar 18, 2014 6:41pm Mar 18, 2014 6:41pm
Quoting 81raffae
{quote}
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/downsiderisk.asp
  • #884,138
  • Mar 18, 2014 6:49pm Mar 18, 2014 6:49pm
Quoting Citiboy
On the EUR side, recent PMIs and ZEW sentiment are weak. Hate to beat a dead horse but EURCNY is now almost 4% higher than where it was a month ago, which I am thinking could take the next eurozone inflation print VERY close to 0.
The HICP consists mainly of domestic products and services (food, tobacco, health, hairdressers, newspapers, mobile phone bills, energy bills, water bills, alcohol, transport costs, restaurants/theatre/cinema etc - stuff people use every week). Only a small proportion is durable goods that is possibly from China.
  • #884,139
  • Mar 18, 2014 6:52pm Mar 18, 2014 6:52pm
I'm short @ 1.3930, target unknown yet.
I will probably set target after it breaks through 1.3850. (Tomorrow after FOMC?)
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #884,140
  • Mar 18, 2014 6:59pm Mar 18, 2014 6:59pm
Quoting Brassboy
{quote} My god. Downside risk is the risk of it going down.
ok. A i try to explain with the previous example.

THE DOWNSIDE RISKS OF INFLATION INCREASE = the risk that the inflation decrease , so the inflation go down(downside), increases
right?
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