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  • #883,821
  • Mar 17, 2014 7:06pm Mar 17, 2014 7:06pm
Quoting gatorinla
a L may be setting on the uj, a retrace of 100 pips or a trend continuation. waiting for that dt to break and a pullback after {image}
it b/o north. so i will be waiting for the pullback to enter (blue box or less) long for the target on the chart
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #883,822
  • Edited 7:55pm Mar 17, 2014 7:37pm | Edited 7:55pm
Sell. sl @ 3961 let her rip.
Founder of Sutherland Wave Principle
  • #883,823
  • Mar 17, 2014 7:54pm Mar 17, 2014 7:54pm
Quoting suthmo
Sell. sl @ 3971 let her rip.
I'm tempted to short it as well, but all signals are bullish!
  • #883,824
  • Mar 17, 2014 7:57pm Mar 17, 2014 7:57pm
Quoting eliasahmar
{quote} I'm tempted to short it as well, but all signals are bullish!
I think the question is not whether to buy or sell here its more a question first of, What is the duration of the trade? Scalp, day trade, intra day, short term? Or swing position 50pip+ trade? Then you can say, what side make more sense to take.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #883,825
  • Mar 17, 2014 7:58pm Mar 17, 2014 7:58pm
Quoting Rtm
{quote} I think the question is not whether to buy or sell here its more a question first of, What is the duration of the trade? Scalp, day trade, intra day, short term? Or swing position 50pip+ trade? Then you can say, what side make more sense to take.
then what's your strategy? why short now?
  • #883,826
  • Mar 17, 2014 8:00pm Mar 17, 2014 8:00pm
Quoting Rtm
{quote} I think the question is not whether to buy or sell here its more a question first of, What is the duration of the trade? Scalp, day trade, intra day, short term? Or swing position 50pip+ trade? Then you can say, what side make more sense to take.
Sorry if this came out sounding like a jackass. Please note: I never mean any offensive gesture or slur of putting down others for any note unless we are clearly stating a joke. Comprende? amigo?
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #883,827
  • Mar 17, 2014 8:02pm Mar 17, 2014 8:02pm
Quoting eliasahmar
{quote} then what's your strategy? why short now?
I am short EUROHO, this definitely appears to me as the 'bubble' which will pop sooner or later yes but not saying that it cant go to 1.40 first.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #883,828
  • Mar 17, 2014 8:06pm Mar 17, 2014 8:06pm
Quoting Rtm
{quote} I am short EUROHO, this definitely appears to me as the 'bubble' which will pop sooner or later yes but not saying that it cant go to 1.40 first.
70% are shorting euro but that doesn't mean it's gonna drop soon... in my opinion, it will visit 1.40-41... so in both scenarios whether it was short-term or long-term strategy; Euro is going up up and up... that's why I'll wait for a better price to short it... I think it's too early to short it now...
Good luck anyway
  • #883,829
  • Mar 17, 2014 8:11pm Mar 17, 2014 8:11pm
Quoting eliasahmar
{quote} 70% are shorting euro but that doesn't mean it's gonna drop soon... in my opinion, it will visit 1.40-41... so in both scenarios whether it was short-term or long-term strategy; Euro is going up up and up... that's why I'll wait for a better price to short it... I think it's too early to short it now... Good luck anyway
It wouldn't matter if 97% were shorting EURO, that stat alone does not move the FX market.

We will just have to see what happens. I am not one of the people saying it is going to drop back to 1.3333, I would be happy for a 1.39 final retracement then blast off. However if not, I will just get out and renter at more expensive euro.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #883,830
  • Mar 17, 2014 8:30pm Mar 17, 2014 8:30pm
Quoting eliasahmar
{quote} I'm tempted to short it as well, but all signals are bullish!
I hear u. With the dollar lurking so low I feel the risk is strong with this one, safety on.
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Founder of Sutherland Wave Principle
  • #883,831
  • Mar 17, 2014 8:56pm Mar 17, 2014 8:56pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} no, but a second large land developer in china has failed. we could be on the edge of a leyman or bears and sterns china
I guess that is where confusion comes into play and I certainly can't understand it without looking at the company's cash flow/balance sheet.

From my understanding, you own a building, but China owns the land below it; if the gov't' wants that land, they can move/destroy your building. In the U.S., loans were rolled up and sold as derivatives, than defaults caused those derivatives to crash in value, and then 2008 happened.

With China, are these investments in a public sphere? or is it all private without being resold? It's not clear as far as I can see. If it is just some owners of debt who were sitting on that debt hoping for future returns, than a default is technically a good thing. Sell it off to whoever finds value in it.

Or is it a different story? is this debt resold into derivatives?

Foreigners can't own land there (let alone citizens) so that systemic risk that the US and Europe saw is gone, so what is the international risk here?

unless I cosigned your mortgage, your house burning down won't affect me ...

Were these debts collateral for other investments? what was the margin of debt? was it all hard assets such as copper or was it promissory notes? are there hidden investors that are foreign (i.e. potentially illegal?).

I am genuinely asking these questions looking for an answer. Every link on twitter tells what is happening, but with no explanations/details. how entrenched is the US, Europe, etc. in China and to what depth?
  • #883,832
  • Mar 17, 2014 9:08pm Mar 17, 2014 9:08pm
If one really wants to short this, should short if it goes and stays below 1.3867
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The Thief of Wall Street
  • #883,833
  • Mar 17, 2014 9:10pm Mar 17, 2014 9:10pm
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} I guess that is where confusion comes into play and I certainly can't understand it without looking at the company's cash flow/balance sheet. From my understanding, you own a building, but China owns the land below it; if the gov't' wants that land, they can move/destroy your building. In the U.S., loans were rolled up and sold as derivatives, than defaults caused those derivatives to crash in value, and then 2008 happened. With China, are these investments in a public sphere? or is it all private without being resold? It's not clear as...
i am no china expert. last i heard the land underneath the home has a 99 year lease from government.

the developer like the first one had a loan from a bank. the banks are backed up by the government. there brand new cities where no one lives. just empty buildings. miles of them. some high rises. i saw a report on this about 4 years ago. its unlikely the reports were faked. the video showed many large buildings, streets etc, all were empty in the middle of the day. not even a stray dog. if these are what the developers are going belly up for, it cant be good.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #883,834
  • Mar 17, 2014 9:20pm Mar 17, 2014 9:20pm
many more like this on youtube.
i mentioned it here 4 or 5 years back.. some said they were for future use. it seemed like bs to me then as it does now.
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #883,835
  • Mar 17, 2014 9:25pm Mar 17, 2014 9:25pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i am no china expert. last i heard the land underneath the home has a 99 year lease from government. the developer like the first one had a loan from a bank. the banks are backed up by the government. there are brand new cities where no one lives. just empty buildings. i saw a report on this about 4 years ago. its unlikely the reports were faked. the video showed many large buildings, streets etc, all were empty in the middle of the day. not even a stray dog. if these are what the developers are going belly up for, it cant be good.
Not in China, but in 1993 I bought a piece of land on 99-year govt lease with building. The lease was expiring five years later in 1998. One year prior to lease expiry, I got it renewed for 0.003% of the land value. Normally, such govt leases denote only the legal form for property title, but in substance, the land-holder retains all property rights including sell at market price without recourse to the title holder (the Govt.) / sub-division/ transfer ownership / rent out, etc.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #883,836
  • Mar 17, 2014 9:25pm Mar 17, 2014 9:25pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i am no china expert. last i heard the land underneath the home has a 99 year lease from government. the developer like the first one had a loan from a bank. the banks are backed up by the government. there brand new cities where no one lives. just empty buildings. miles of them. some high rises. i saw a report on this about 4 years ago. its unlikely the reports were faked. the video showed many large buildings, streets etc, all were empty in the middle of the day. not even a stray dog. if these are what the developers are going belly up...
Yes, I have been aware of those ghosts cities to. Can't be good, but no way to evaluate how bad it is.

If I build a ghost city expecting a future return, but then the future is bleak, I get no return. Sucks for me.

now if I guarantee that return on paper at 8% year, and cut that paper up into 1000 pieces and sell each one at .1% of total value with 8% interest, those investors are now out of luck.

That is the big question for me that isn't clear, are there more behind the scenes? or is it 1-3 layers only thick?

If the Chinese govt would release their data, I would like on the right side at liabilities and short term assets, than long term assets.

to me, as long as the loans weren't sold off as derivatives, it sounds like it will be nothing more than some debt holders stomping their feet saying "Uncle Sam gave them returns on their bad investments, what about us" and if that is the depth of it, I will commend the Chinese govt if they do sharpen the axes and get the guillotines ready.

I would like to see a local private auction of construction goods/mechanical equipment and see what the demand is and for what price. Hell, this might just turn up a new and more efficient business.

Thanks for clarity to your views.
  • #883,837
  • Mar 17, 2014 9:28pm Mar 17, 2014 9:28pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Not in China, but in 1993 I bought a piece of land on 99-year govt. leasee with building. The lease was expiring five years later in 1998. One year prior to lease expiry, I got it renewed for 0.003% of the land value. Normally, such govt. leases denote only the legal form for property title, but in substance, the land-holder retains all property rights including sell at market price without recourse to the title holder (the Govt.) / sub-division/ transfer ownership / rent out, etc.
My buddy who lived over there said that unless you are a citizen, you are sh*t out of luck when it comes to ownership of land. I would have to talk to him, as I don't remember if it was the local government or PRC, but it was made clear to him that if they told him to move that his building would have to move. And since he lived in a duplex (i think) he would be out of luck if it ever got to that point.

Do you by chance still have the lease? I would like to know the details of it, post it if you can sometime ...
  • #883,838
  • Mar 17, 2014 9:34pm Mar 17, 2014 9:34pm
Quoting gatorinla
many more like this on youtube. i mentioned it here 4 or 5 years back.. some said they were for future use. it seemed like bs to me then as it does now. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V3XfpYxHKCo
Empty buildings in Detroit doesn't bother me at all. My worries would be how spread out the investment in Detroit is.

Seems like a few big players may take some big losses. And if they are big players, they will make headlines, but headwinds from those might be some kneejerk reactions.

When you say their 07'08' moment might be coming, under what foundation? I can't find anything that intrinsic of foreign investors in China.

From what I read, 80% of Australia mining is owned by foreigners, without tax, that money goes overseas .. the govt taxes to provide more local money. Australia won't suffer from the mining industry, only 20% (on a 1:1 cash basis).

Unless heavy ownership through Hong Kong is active, I just don't see the domino effect aside from being reactionary.
  • #883,839
  • Mar 17, 2014 9:42pm Mar 17, 2014 9:42pm
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} Empty buildings in Detroit doesn't bother me at all. My worries would be how spread out the investment in Detroit is. Seems like a few big players may take some big losses. And if they are big players, they will make headlines, but headwinds from those might be some kneejerk reactions. When you say their 07'08' moment might be coming, under what foundation? I can't find anything that intrinsic of foreign investors in China. From what I read, 80% of Australia mining is owned by foreigners, without tax, that money goes overseas .. the govt...
it seems u have a bias. if the weather man says it will snow tomorrow. i will bring a coat, even if it dont snow. whats Detroit have to do with china? nothing. a city built for a million residents backed by the government, that only has 70,000 people is a problem. a 100 cities like this is a major problem
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #883,840
  • Mar 17, 2014 9:44pm Mar 17, 2014 9:44pm
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} My buddy who lived over there said that unless you are a citizen, you are sh*t out of luck when it comes to ownership of land. I would have to talk to him, as I don't remember if it was the local government or PRC, but it was made clear to him that if they told him to move that his building would have to move. And since he lived in a duplex (i think) he would be out of luck if it ever got to that point. Do you by chance still have the lease? I would like to know the details of it, post it if you can sometime ...
Many countries do not allow foreigners to buy land there. I had my land in one such country and I believe govt retaining token title is part of that policy. However, in the same country you can also buy a free-hold land. Maybe that was a British rule for their colonies, because my lease was issued by British Govt. before independence.

However, during my visits to a couple of former USSR countries, I learned that people actually owned businesses but only formal title rested with the Soviet Govt.

I don't have anything relating to that land now. Long-time ago I build apartments on that land and sold it off to people. Interestingly, none of these apartment holders have ownership right over the land, it is a common property and the housing society (of which each apartment holder is a member) is the owner of this land. I am not sure who owns the building and structures, but remember my lawyer telling me its only the "space" that apartment holders are owners of. That means, building also belongs to the housing society.
The Thief of Wall Street
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