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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #72,121
  • Mar 17, 2014 4:35am Mar 17, 2014 4:35am
1. Do you trade the weekly?
2. Do you trade trends?
3. Do you thing we could have a trend change?

If you do here are my thoughts:
One could think that a correction is overdue, but bear in mind they can be overdue a long time. I think the bulls have 1.4 in mind before any correction. There is big option interest there. I would keep an eye on the daily where we had an inverted hammer and then an engulfing.
Attached Image


If you do not trade the weekly you might want to see what happens as this triangle on the hourly is broken.
Attached Image


Quoting Pip_Warrior
This is the first time I have seen 6 green candlesticks in a row on the EUR/USD W1 chart. Not sure what that means. I would suspect it is overdue for a correction south. Thoughts?{image}
  • #72,122
  • Mar 17, 2014 6:55am Mar 17, 2014 6:55am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Yes of course that all plays into it also. It's going to be interesting. After being asked to take a quick look at the Kiwi by another trader, my analysis (although a quickie type) tells me that we should hit around 0.8600 followed by a correction back down to around 0.8000. After that we should get more bullish action, but not sure if it will resume upwards or downwards after. That all depends on the USD at that point.
Hi PT,

In what time period does your analysis indicate that the Kiwi will reach the .80 level?

Thanks.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #72,123
  • Mar 17, 2014 2:09pm Mar 17, 2014 2:09pm
Quoting Alorente
{quote} Hi PT, In what time period does your analysis indicate that the Kiwi will reach the .80 level? Thanks.
I suck at timing, but assuming volatility levels remain the same, considering that it took 10 weeks to go from 8050 to 8550 and will probably take at least another week or two to reach 8650 or so, then I would say that in all likelihood, we should see 8000 in about 14 weeks (give or take a couple)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #72,124
  • Edited 4:39pm Mar 17, 2014 2:12pm | Edited 4:39pm
Quoting Pip_Warrior
This is the first time I have seen 6 green candlesticks in a row on the EUR/USD W1 chart. Not sure what that means. I would suspect it is overdue for a correction south. Thoughts?{image}
I concur, but for now we should only see a small correction. The larger correction should come after we reach 1.4005/70 area.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #72,125
  • Edited 4:39pm Mar 17, 2014 2:13pm | Edited 4:39pm
Quoting TheSwede
If you do not trade the weekly you might want to see what happens as this triangle on the hourly is broken. {image} {quote}


Quoting PipTrapper
{quote}...for now we should only see a small correction. The larger correction should come after we reach 1.4005/70 area.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #72,126
  • Mar 19, 2014 8:37am Mar 19, 2014 8:37am
PipTrapper, any thought on the upcomming FOMC statement?
  • #72,127
  • Mar 19, 2014 8:40am Mar 19, 2014 8:40am
I think 1.40 will be hit no matter what is said in the FOMC.... market wants it to go there... 1.4150/1.42 potential selling points, but if we get that high what will stop it going even higher?

We could see initial drop in price only for it to target the 1.40 + levels...

Im sidelined but if i were to place a trade it would be long EURO
Cheers!!
  • #72,128
  • Mar 19, 2014 2:26pm Mar 19, 2014 2:26pm
Quoting TheSwede
PipTrapper, any thought on the upcomming FOMC statement?
Quoting PipsMaster23
I think 1.40 will be hit no matter what is said in the FOMC.... market wants it to go there... 1.4150/1.42 potential selling points, but if we get that high what will stop it going even higher? We could see initial drop in price only for it to target the 1.40 + levels... Im sidelined but if i were to place a trade it would be long EURO

My apologies Swede. I did not see your question until after the press conference started.

PM23, nice to see you posting here again.

To both of you...

The spike in USD strength is not really that convincing to me yet. I was and still am expecting a correction before we see 1.4x, but this correction so far looks like it's going to amount to nothing more than a knee jerk reaction. Perhaps it's because Janet is still answering questions, but I have a feeling we'll see 1.4x this week yet. I guess time will tell.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #72,129
  • Mar 19, 2014 2:33pm Mar 19, 2014 2:33pm
Where is your bearish mentality, PT? seems Draghi has the strength to turn even the most reluctant to his side

Pity
  • #72,130
  • Mar 19, 2014 2:49pm Mar 19, 2014 2:49pm
Quoting Paulenok
Where is your bearish mentality, PT? seems Draghi has the strength to turn even the most reluctant to his side Pity
To see my bearish mentality, you must put away your magnifying glass and pick up your binoculars.
I am still extremely bearish the Euro in the long term, but cyclical technicals are very strongly suggesting low to mid 1.4x area before we turn south. In fact my target for later this year to mid next year is in the low 1.20s and possibly even much lower.

I have not turned
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #72,131
  • Mar 19, 2014 3:28pm Mar 19, 2014 3:28pm
time to sell kiwi?
I'll Sell when price is heading to Hell
  • #72,132
  • Edited 5:46pm Mar 19, 2014 5:34pm | Edited 5:46pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} To see my bearish mentality, you must put away your magnifying glass and pick up your binoculars. I am still extremely bearish the Euro in the long term, but cyclical technicals are very strongly suggesting low to mid 1.4x area before we turn south. In fact my target for later this year to mid next year is in the low 1.20s and possibly even much lower. I have not turned
Hey PT...
Looking through my binoculars (chart1- MONTHLY) I think we're are already DONE (technically) for this moment, and 1.4000 should remain untouched.
We're are perfectly sitting on long term 50% Fibo, and before FED press conference we had this week like 4 or 5 attacks on 1.4000 and all of them failed.
Mission completed.
Also 1.4000 seems for me so obvious to SELL, that many bullish traders wouldn't like to risk and would take their profits earlier, like 40-50 pips below 1.4000.
On weekly chart (chart 2)I can see that we will slowly decline for few weeks towards long term 32,8% Fibo (@1.34500) where we will stop and await further (up or down) signals form FED and ECB.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdmonthly.png Size: 65 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdweekly.png Size: 71 KB
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #72,133
  • Mar 19, 2014 6:52pm Mar 19, 2014 6:52pm
Quoting braintec
time to sell kiwi?
what is your stop loss to sell?
  • #72,134
  • Mar 19, 2014 11:33pm Mar 19, 2014 11:33pm
Quoting chess king
{quote} what is your stop loss to sell?
0.86765
I'll Sell when price is heading to Hell
  • #72,135
  • Mar 20, 2014 4:03am Mar 20, 2014 4:03am
EURUSD should remain Bullish unless 1.3750 is taken out (daily close below) and if we get that low.... unless this level is taken out i will buy these dips in the EURUSD, will all SL under 1.3750

Tp levels: 1.4070, 1.4175 & 1.4315

Im terrible with time analysis, but i think the 1.40 level will be touched and broken by next week.... i see USD strengthening in 3rd quarter till end of year.

I entered long EURUSD last night @ 1.3809 and i have a long position on USDCHF since 0.8726 of which i am still holding (SL 0.8789) and will do till EUR shows me evidence it will shoot up or die!

Lastly, i am also long GBPJPY since 168.75 with overall target 172.00 and just entered long on Gold 1,331 with target 1399

Good luck to all!

PS: MY positions are all in contradiction of each other, a kind of hedge in a way, just to make sure im on the ride when it sets off and trends... once this happens i close off losing trades and add to winners.
Cheers!!
  • #72,136
  • Mar 20, 2014 4:34am Mar 20, 2014 4:34am
Quoting halkins
{quote} Hey PT... Looking through my binoculars (chart1- MONTHLY) I think we're are already DONE (technically) for this moment, and 1.4000 should remain untouched. We're are perfectly sitting on long term 50% Fibo, and before FED press conference we had this week like 4 or 5 attacks on 1.4000 and all of them failed. Mission completed. Also 1.4000 seems for me so obvious to SELL, that many bullish traders wouldn't like to risk and would take their profits earlier, like 40-50 pips below 1.4000. On weekly chart (chart 2)I can see that we will slowly...
Hi Halkins,

Your argument of multiple failed attempts works both ways.
In a world of supply and demand, the multiple failed attempts could be seen as a systematic absorption of supply. Once supply is fully absorbed, there will be none left and as long as there is still demand remaining, the direction will be up.

In a nutshell, don't allow yourself to be misled by the multiple failed attempts. In reality it means absolutely nothing other than that there was a battle in that area. A winner will only be declared once the trend resumes, and so far all we have is ranging.

If price manages to drop and hold below 1.3750, then the short term will be in the neutral zone, but above that area is still "buy the dips" bullish.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #72,137
  • Mar 20, 2014 4:39am Mar 20, 2014 4:39am
Quoting PipsMaster23
EURUSD should remain Bullish unless 1.3750 is taken out (daily close below)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #72,138
  • Mar 20, 2014 6:20am Mar 20, 2014 6:20am
Quoting braintec
{quote} 0.86765
thank you..
  • #72,139
  • Mar 20, 2014 6:25am Mar 20, 2014 6:25am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Hi Halkins, Your argument of multiple failed attempts works both ways. In a world of supply and demand, the multiple failed attempts could be seen as a systematic absorption of supply. Once supply is fully absorbed, there will be none left and as long as there is still demand remaining, the direction will be up. In a nutshell, don't allow yourself to be misled by the multiple failed attempts. In reality it means absolutely nothing other than that there was a battle in that area. A winner will only be declared once the trend resumes, and...

closed my shorts..
the price can not break 3700/5x zone
  • #72,140
  • Mar 20, 2014 7:06am Mar 20, 2014 7:06am
Quoting chess king
{quote} closed my shorts.. the price can not break 3700/5x zone
US Jobless claims later should decide which way this goes in the short term. Otherwise, the USD is still gaining strength in the short term.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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