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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #44,061
  • Mar 16, 2014 1:54pm Mar 16, 2014 1:54pm
Quoting iyas120
This week planning for trade USD/JPY {image}
What is that indicator? Would love to have something like that.
  • #44,062
  • Mar 16, 2014 2:16pm Mar 16, 2014 2:16pm
The USD/JPY quickly capitalized on last Friday’s bearish reversal and racked up 250 plus pips gain with the Yen being the largest gainer against the USD this week.

The pair is currently sitting on big support. Then questions are do we get a gap down? How much follow through if we do? Will 100 hold?

On the flip side if risk off comes back into play for some unforeseen reason and usd/jpy trades above 101.85 it will be time to get long as 103.75 will be quickly tested on the upside.

Inserted Video
  • #44,063
  • Mar 16, 2014 2:44pm Mar 16, 2014 2:44pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...spells-trouble
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  • #44,064
  • Mar 16, 2014 5:12pm Mar 16, 2014 5:12pm
Daily
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90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #44,065
  • Mar 16, 2014 8:15pm Mar 16, 2014 8:15pm
I would almost be tempted to go long here if I was not already in a position.
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #44,066
  • Mar 16, 2014 8:23pm Mar 16, 2014 8:23pm
Quoting whackdiddy
I would almost be tempted to go long here if I was not already in a position.
Even CNN and other news agencies are shifting focus back to the missing plane as well as North Korea missile tests.
Crimea situation will fizzle out and result in nothing at all. Russia followed international law - yes they could have given more time, etc etc.. so many arguments to be had but they did tick the boxes and have previous cases to prove the situation warranted the action that they took.
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #44,067
  • Mar 16, 2014 8:34pm Mar 16, 2014 8:34pm
long

stops around 101.2
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  • #44,068
  • Mar 16, 2014 9:27pm Mar 16, 2014 9:27pm
all this Ukraine talk, blah blah blah. At the end of the day, the markets doesn't really care about the circus happening in eastern europe. Back to business as usual when things down die.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #44,069
  • Mar 16, 2014 9:31pm Mar 16, 2014 9:31pm
Quoting todstars2
long stops around 101.2 {image} {image}
Great Looking charts!

I too am long. Looking to go from the bottom of the channel all the way to the top!
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He who knows when he can fight and when he cannot, will be victorious.
  • #44,070
  • Mar 16, 2014 9:49pm Mar 16, 2014 9:49pm
Quoting OMGtrader
all this Ukraine talk, blah blah blah. At the end of the day, the markets doesn't really care about the circus happening in eastern europe. Back to business as usual when things down die.
^ is that a contradiction. The market does not care, back to business as usual when things die down. That is exactly what I am saying, things are dying down and the price is going up (back to business as usual).
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #44,071
  • Mar 16, 2014 10:29pm Mar 16, 2014 10:29pm
Interestingly on the H1 we are bouncing off the Kijun @ 101.550 for what could appear as more bear activity.
However on the M1 we have a tk cross inside the cloud for more bull activity and the candle has just punched above the cloud indicating a potential strong bull run.
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #44,072
  • Mar 16, 2014 10:39pm Mar 16, 2014 10:39pm
Quoting OMGtrader
all this Ukraine talk, blah blah blah. At the end of the day, the markets doesn't really care about the circus happening in eastern europe. Back to business as usual when things down die.
i am quite a skeptic by nature and do tend to think the media hype often inflates and exacerbates market moves without a good foundation.
in the past though i have been burnt as the hype extends further than I believe it would (or should) and my contrarian stance screws me.

iit looks like the crimean situation has the potential to keep on the forefront of the news cycle for some time.

http://www.theatlantic.com/infocus/2...ldiers/100696/

the Russians seem keen to flex their muscle and provocate and there will be enough photos and footage of soliders with guns to keep it all in peoples faces.
are they keen for some all out war? seems pretty unlikley but with soliders in their country it will skew towards a risk off bias and probably keep the yen bid.

thus my strategy with anything like this is to basically not bet against the herd or if i think its all total BS i just stay out altogether.
  • #44,073
  • Mar 16, 2014 11:10pm Mar 16, 2014 11:10pm
Quoting Judge Dent
{quote} i am quite a skeptic by nature and do tend to think the media hype often inflates and exacerbates market moves without a good foundation. in the past though i have been burnt as the hype extends further than I believe it would (or should) and my contrarian stance screws me. iit looks like the crimean situation has the potential to keep on the forefront of the news cycle for some time. http://www.theatlantic.com/infocus/2...ldiers/100696/ the Russians seem keen to flex their muscle and provocate and...
Same, been burnt many times by looking and relying on the charts alone.
I find it funny that people do not use all the tools available to them, it is like the guy on youtube that trims his hedge using a chainsaw on a rope and swings it in a circle. He most likely has a hedge trimmer in the shed but as soon as he sees the chainsaw cannot go past it.
Here..

Even as a chartist, you still check the calendar of events either here on FF or other sites as they influence the market. The news was going overboard as they usually do but it cannot be disputed that people were jumping on gold and yen as safe havens in case something did break out.

<<OLD NEWS>>
Occasionally you see people that are pure chartists jump on a thread and go.. "what the hell caused that? The AUD just dropped like a stone?", well news release that China is about to default on contracts could be the cause, just as a guess though, oh did your chart not tell you that?

Anyway enough said, do not want to turn this into a troll thread..

I am going to close my second long and maybe enter lower when the UK and NY come online as I see we may dip based on the H1 and sentiment of UK and US mindset in relation to Europe events. Then will enter another long.
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #44,074
  • Mar 16, 2014 11:20pm Mar 16, 2014 11:20pm
M5 showing a potential bearish pattern with a tk cross forming, however small and into the cloud on ichimoku.
Instinct would be to enter a small short scalp here, however it would be at risk as it is not a strong signal.
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #44,075
  • Mar 16, 2014 11:20pm Mar 16, 2014 11:20pm
104.08
102.20
100.32
98.44
96.56
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #44,076
  • Mar 16, 2014 11:24pm Mar 16, 2014 11:24pm
Quoting Chicky
104.08 102.20 100.32 98.44 96.56
Is that your 61.8% on the fib?
I have kijun sitting @ 102.319 on the H4, Kijun normally follows very close to the 61.8%.
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #44,077
  • Mar 16, 2014 11:30pm Mar 16, 2014 11:30pm
Quoting whackdiddy
{quote} Is that your 61.8% on the fib? I have kijun sitting @ 102.319 on the H4, Kijun normally follows very close to the 61.8%.


96.56
104.07
100% fib =751 pips
50% fib = 376 pips
25% fib =188 pips

Deduct 188 pips from 104.08 until 96.56, and we get these levels:

104.08
102.20
100.32
98.44
96.56

Keep on deducting 98 pips at each level from 104.08 until 96.56 .................and we get smaller levels.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #44,078
  • Mar 16, 2014 11:35pm Mar 16, 2014 11:35pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} 96.56 104.07 100% fib =751 pips 50% fib = 376 pips 25% fib =188 pips Deduct 188 pips from 104.08 until 96.56, and we get these levels: 104.08 102.20 100.32 98.44 96.56 Keep on deducting 98 pips at each level from 104.08 until 96.56 .................and we get smaller levels.
Thanks Chicky,

I am going to study this method of yours, because right at the moment I feel the missing plane just flew straight over my head.
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #44,079
  • Mar 16, 2014 11:46pm Mar 16, 2014 11:46pm
Quoting whackdiddy
{quote} Thanks Chicky, I am going to study this method of yours, because right at the moment I feel the missing plane just flew straight over my head.
These are corrected numbers. In previous post, I read a Low as High. Ignore previously quoted levels.

96.56
105.44

100% = 888 pipps
50% = 444 pips
25% = 222 pips


105.44
103.22
101.00
98.78
96.56
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The Thief of Wall Street
  • #44,080
  • Mar 17, 2014 1:00am Mar 17, 2014 1:00am
Short at the top of the last candle for a very cheeky scalp run. Expect to close it in under 5 minutes.
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
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