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  • #883,601
  • Mar 16, 2014 5:41pm Mar 16, 2014 5:41pm
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} First, where did you get those numbers? They are incorrect. Second, I didn't say it wouldn't drop , I said it is nonsense to say it should and at a certain exchange rate, especially withou giving a model of your analysis. third, china isn't tanking, they might be slowing , but not tanking. They are will growing at 7%+! Stop reading to much ZH. if the yuan becomes more liquid/easier to buy for foreigners, I will invest in china happily, personal debt in china is low, plenty of room to grow.
What do you think the European debt crisis was all about? lol

http://rt.com/business/eu-debt-high-q1-459/

It's not as though Europe doesn't have major debt problems, they do.
Yay! Pips for everyone!
  • #883,602
  • Mar 16, 2014 5:44pm Mar 16, 2014 5:44pm
Quoting Pipsforall
{quote} What do you think the European debt crisis was all about? lol http://rt.com/business/eu-debt-high-q1-459/
Nope, those numbers are simply wrong.

and some haven't taken losses on paper yet, I don't think it's as bad as what they are trying to sell you
  • #883,603
  • Mar 16, 2014 5:49pm Mar 16, 2014 5:49pm
As I write this;
Bid/Ask: 1.39039/1.39056 - these numbers are 100% right.

My analysis predicts that price levels could hit below 1.3900 or above 1.3910 in the next few hours.

Thanks as always
K.I.S.S.
  • #883,604
  • Mar 16, 2014 5:58pm Mar 16, 2014 5:58pm
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} Nope, those numbers are simply wrong. and some haven't taken losses on paper yet, I don't think it's as bad as what they are trying to sell you

We'll just have to agree to disagree. Btw, China has major, major debt problems as well.
Yay! Pips for everyone!
  • #883,605
  • Mar 16, 2014 6:02pm Mar 16, 2014 6:02pm
Quoting Pipsforall
{quote} We'll just have to agree to disagree. Btw, China has major, major debt problems as well.
How do you know this? Have you read any balance sheet or cash flow report ?

and again,7% growth isn't crashing!

what if the big secret is that china will be fine !
  • #883,606
  • Mar 16, 2014 7:00pm Mar 16, 2014 7:00pm
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} How do you know this? Have you read any balance sheet or cash flow report ? and again,7% growth isn't crashing! what if the big secret is that china will be fine !
If you can actually believe that China really has 7% growth. I for one doubt it, and the fact they're intervening to weaken their currency tells me all I need to know. Further, they have a major debt crisis at the local level, over $3 trillion dollars, or 33% of their GDP is loan to local municipalities to build infrastructure, guess who holds that the $3 trillion that local governments can't pay back, the Chinese government.
Yay! Pips for everyone!
  • #883,607
  • Mar 16, 2014 7:13pm Mar 16, 2014 7:13pm
Quoting Pipsforall
{quote} If you can actually believe that China really has 7% growth. I for one doubt it, and the fact they're intervening to weaken their currency tells me all I need to know. Further, they have a major debt crisis at the local level, over $3 trillion dollars, or 33% of their GDP is loan to local municipalities to build infrastructure, guess who holds that the $3 trillion that local governments can't pay back, the Chinese government.
Everything you said is a repeat on headlines from twitter and ZH.

What if china is playing a different game? What if the are giving up manufacturing in exchange for services/banking?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...eade-says.html

i live in Texas, we have HEB down here (8 billion dollar + private grocery chain) , rumor that china invested into the Mexico-Texas transport that HEB uses. You will only read that in local papers, but it is locally bullish. Our port authority has BOOMED in business in the past couple years, big time bullish!

i can go on and on, point being, look past the headlines ... Especially when you can't verify the given data yourself.

have you audited the loans there? I bet not
  • #883,608
  • Mar 16, 2014 7:24pm Mar 16, 2014 7:24pm
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} Everything you said is a repeat on headlines from twitter and ZH. What if china is playing a different game? What if the are giving up manufacturing in exchange for services/banking? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...eade-says.html i live in Texas, we have HEB down here (8 billion dollar + private grocery chain) , rumor that china invested into the Mexico-Texas transport that HEB uses. You will only read that in local papers, but it is locally bullish. Our port authority...
Well, I highly doubt China is giving up manufacturing to become a mirror image of the US economy. But, good luck to you, I hope you make a fortune trading.
Yay! Pips for everyone!
  • #883,609
  • Mar 16, 2014 7:30pm Mar 16, 2014 7:30pm
Quoting Pipsforall
{quote} Well, I highly doubt China is giving up manufacturing to become a mirror image of the US economy. But, good luck to you, I hope you make a fortune trading.
You haven't rebutted anything I said nor provided no data on the audits you conducted in or the data you have access to.

good luck to you to, don't get stuck on the wrong side.
  • #883,610
  • Mar 16, 2014 7:38pm Mar 16, 2014 7:38pm
{quote} We'll just have to agree to disagree. Btw, China has major, major debt problems as well.[quote=slow-trader;

{quote} How do you know this? Have you read any balance sheet or cash flow report ? and again,7% growth isn't crashing! what if the big secret is that china will be fine ![/quote]

"China needs to solve its debt crisis, says former Treasury minister"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...-minister.html

"Fresh corporate default tests China’s resolve
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/27f9f4aa-a...#axzz2wAxjaa00

"The Chinese mountain of debt"
http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/DsWI...n-of-debt.html

A China debt crisis in 2014?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...risis-in-2014/
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #883,611
  • Mar 16, 2014 7:52pm Mar 16, 2014 7:52pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
{quote} We'll just have to agree to disagree. Btw, China has major, major debt problems as well.{quote} "China needs to solve its debt crisis, says former Treasury minister" http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...-minister.html "Fresh corporate default tests China’s resolve http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/27f9f4aa-a...#axzz2wAxjaa00 "The Chinese mountain of debt" http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/DsWI...n-of-debt.html...

More speculation ion with no facts/data? Do people get paid to speculate and manipulate speculators?

first line out of WP ...

"Although the odds of a full-blown financial crisis are slim, they’re not non-existent. "

Same as "the world has a chance of ending tomorrow, but chances are slim".

like I said before, show me the fare data, then I will be concerned.
  • #883,612
  • Mar 16, 2014 8:00pm Mar 16, 2014 8:00pm
Majority of the trading planet is short e/u...Kinda thinking I would like to get long up here...Not my normal thing, but the data don't lie.
  • #883,613
  • Mar 16, 2014 8:07pm Mar 16, 2014 8:07pm
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} " Same as "the world has a chance of ending tomorrow, but chances are slim". like I said before, show me the fare data, then I will be concerned.
"Questions about Chinese growth and the health of its financial system will also weigh on markets in the wake of soft export, retail and industrial production numbers released last week that raised doubts on whether the country can reach its stated goal of 7.5 per cent growth this year.
The country's first-ever corporate bond default March 7 also created tensions over worries about the health of other companies.

Read more: http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/stock...#ixzz2wB2ixtYm

No, the World won't end tomorrow. China won't end tomorrow. Neither you or I will live long enough to see
the World or China end. In trading though, I like to focus on what's happening this week or month.
Don't you ?
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #883,614
  • Mar 16, 2014 8:15pm Mar 16, 2014 8:15pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
{quote} In trading though, I like to focus on what's happening this week or month. Don't you ?
That is my point, today .. All I hear is about china crashing, euro crashing, etc. and it isn't.

i have been trading long enough, and my wife can attest, that I don't have restless nights anymore worrying about these circumstances.

i have picked up stuff from the port authority plenty of times. Items there don't count towards US GDP until after it is processed/inspected, etc. from the looks of it, China is sending more goods here than ever before.

ask yourself, if you were heavily invested in Europe or China and everyone was bearish, wouldn't want to fuel that fire? I would and I do.
  • #883,615
  • Mar 16, 2014 8:34pm Mar 16, 2014 8:34pm
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} . i have picked up stuff from the port authority plenty of times.
I'm sure you're all good. In the shorter term.....
"The pace and scale of China's economic transformation have no historical precedent"
It's a bit difficult to judge because there is nothing to judge from ?
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?...7/jep.26.4.103

and .... in today's world

"Copper plunges to 9-month low on China jitters

Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/copper...#ixzz2wBBoxe32

I'll just go with that for today... maybe tomorrow and basically "trade the method".

Fair enough ??
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #883,616
  • Edited 8:54pm Mar 16, 2014 8:41pm | Edited 8:54pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
{quote} I'm sure you're all good. In the shorter term..... "The pace and scale of China's economic transformation have no historical precedent" It's a bit difficult to judge because there is nothing to judge from ? https://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?...7/jep.26.4.103 and .... in today's world "Copper plunges to 9-month low on China jitters Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/copper...#ixzz2wBBoxe32 I'll just go with that for today... maybe tomorrow and basically "trade...
Cheap copper is a good thing, I can build for cheaper.

liquidation isn't a bad thing always, and I commend china if they allow defaults, that is healthy for an economy.

plunging copper doesn't stop me from shopping, and when a business needs copper, they will be more excited!

imagine if china opens up the flood gates and allow foreign and domestic ownership of land, lol, I wouldn't want to be a china bear on that day.

edit - not to mention, copper dropping because of chinese jitters is an assumption.

copper dropped because of to little demand or too much supply. Who knows why, mass owners of copper didn't wake up last week and say "oh no I'm getting the jitters on china, better sell my stock in copper"
  • #883,617
  • Mar 16, 2014 8:56pm Mar 16, 2014 8:56pm
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} Cheap copper is a good thing, I can build for cheaper.
But you're not a builder, you're a trader ??

Quoting slow-trader
{quote}imagine if china opens up the flood gates and allow foreign and domestic ownership of land, lol, I wouldn't want to be a china bear on that day.
As previously stated, neither you or I will live long enough to see all the wonders of the World.
I can IMAGINE anything.
I prefer to live in reality (in trading) as much as possible; at least for this week/month.
I don't want to imagine (in trading) what could happen 5 or 10 years from now.

Can you understand ?
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #883,618
  • Mar 16, 2014 8:57pm Mar 16, 2014 8:57pm
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} First, where did you get those numbers? They are incorrect. Second, I didn't say it wouldn't drop , I said it is nonsense to say it should and at a certain exchange rate, especially withou giving a model of your analysis. third, china isn't tanking, they might be slowing , but not tanking. They are will growing at 7%+! Stop reading to much ZH. if the yuan becomes more liquid/easier to buy for foreigners, I will invest in china happily, personal debt in china is low, plenty of room to grow.
i watch wallmart and copper for a bellwether on china. i am not into the amounts or if there is a crash or not there. the arab spring started as the usd was high and oil prices were lower. some had a problem with food commodity prices being higher comparably to oil then. in the chart wallmart missed a target and went higher, when this happens most times it will come back to the target. if it does, it will break a bottom that has a second target, lower then the missed one (61.65). using wallmart as a guide, china seems to have problems with a new low.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #883,619
  • Mar 16, 2014 9:11pm Mar 16, 2014 9:11pm
China cook their books so it is impossible to get the real picture analyzing the numbers they show. WalMart also cook their books and something that is happening now will be seeing further down the road when it does not matter anymore. The best proxy to know what is really happening in China is to study the countries that benefited from China growth and see how they are doing right now. For example Brazil. They had a boom there because they exported all kind of commodities to China. Now things are starting to change there. Why ?? Because China is not buying so much anymore. Thats not a theory it is a fact.
So, you think you have rights? LOL
  • #883,620
  • Mar 16, 2014 9:13pm Mar 16, 2014 9:13pm
on the scrap market china is the # one buyer of #2 copper. when the price of #2 copper went down in the past 20 years, my friend who owns a large scrap business. says china has followed in the past. 2008 was the last time. the same thing with brass as a indicator of india.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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