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EURUSD

  • #883,581
  • Mar 16, 2014 4:21pm Mar 16, 2014 4:21pm
Gidday EUR/US

Well my longs all set for 140

Lets see if it blows it top

today
  • #883,582
  • Mar 16, 2014 4:26pm Mar 16, 2014 4:26pm
Shouldn't war or the threat of war cause the Dollar and the Yen to go up being they are considered safe havens?
  • #883,583
  • Mar 16, 2014 4:29pm Mar 16, 2014 4:29pm
Quoting irongoose
Shouldn't war or the threat of war cause the Dollar and the Yen to go up being they are considered safe havens?
What do you think last week rally in yen was? ? ? Cept US dollar not so much.
Rally in Gold ?
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #883,584
  • Mar 16, 2014 4:31pm Mar 16, 2014 4:31pm
Quoting Rtm
{quote} What do you think last week rally in yen was? ? ? Cept US dollar not so much. Rally in Gold ?
So why would someone have longs set at 1.40 during this time?
  • #883,585
  • Mar 16, 2014 4:33pm Mar 16, 2014 4:33pm
Why hasn't the Eur crashed yet?
  • #883,586
  • Mar 16, 2014 4:38pm Mar 16, 2014 4:38pm
Quoting irongoose
Why hasn't the Eur crashed yet?
Why should it crash? It can still drop several hundred pips and be in a strong uptrend
  • #883,587
  • Mar 16, 2014 4:38pm Mar 16, 2014 4:38pm
Quoting irongoose
Why hasn't the Eur crashed yet?
Why should it? Is their any reason why a currency has to be a certain price? Look at any higher tf chart an you can see why, we are in a bullish trend and we JUST broke major resistance, last week we had a pretty big correction IMO
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #883,588
  • Mar 16, 2014 4:47pm Mar 16, 2014 4:47pm
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} Why should it crash? It can still drop several hundred pips and be in a strong uptrend
I understand that and I would consider the conditions ripe for that happening with what is going on in the Ukraine and I would consider 200 pips to the down side as crashing also.
  • #883,589
  • Mar 16, 2014 4:48pm Mar 16, 2014 4:48pm
200 pips and a couple of lots is a pretty good pay day IMO.
  • #883,590
  • Mar 16, 2014 4:53pm Mar 16, 2014 4:53pm
Quoting irongoose
{quote} I understand that and I would consider the conditions ripe for that happening with what is going on in the Ukraine and I would consider 200 pips to the down side as crashing also.
As of now, there Is nothing in the ukraine that warrants any fundimentals on the Euro. Not high enough to short, not low enough to buy.
  • #883,591
  • Mar 16, 2014 5:01pm Mar 16, 2014 5:01pm
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} As of now, there Is nothing in the ukraine that warrants any fundimentals on the Euro. Not high enough to short, not low enough to buy.
Other than flows, the fundamentals don't support a EURO at this price, the fundamentals support a Euro priced in the mid to high 1.20s. At some point the technicals do follow the fundamentals. I for one do not believe that the EURO will break out, and that this is a false break, and we're in a topping area. Creating tops are usually very choppy.
Yay! Pips for everyone!
  • #883,592
  • Mar 16, 2014 5:04pm Mar 16, 2014 5:04pm
Good Evening London / did you guys had a good weekend?
Squawk recordings from Talking-Forex (delayed)
Attached File(s)
File Type: mp3 Sunday Early call 16-03-14.mp3   1.8 MB | 231 downloads
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #883,593
  • Mar 16, 2014 5:05pm Mar 16, 2014 5:05pm
Where are all the people with gaps mouth? up and down
Notin like dat
  • #883,594
  • Mar 16, 2014 5:08pm Mar 16, 2014 5:08pm
Quoting Pipsforall
{quote} Other than flows, the fundamentals don't support a EURO at this price, the fundamentals support a Euro priced in the mid to high 1.20s. At some point the technicals do follow the fundamentals. I for one do not believe that the EURO will break out, and that this is a false break, and we're in a topping area. Creating tops are usually very choppy.
And how do you judge those fundis?

WE (u.s.) have 17 trillion in debt. Europe doesn't.

investors are coming bck to Europe.

for all we know, the euro maybe cheap on path to 1.8-2.0. What happens if Yellen eventually starts another stimulus in the years to come?

i just don't understand when people say the fundis should lead to a certain exchange rate, no one knows.

if Europe drops Russian energy and buys for US energy, wouldn't a stronger currencybe better so that energy is cheaper?

lots of ponder and no one knows.
  • #883,595
  • Mar 16, 2014 5:14pm Mar 16, 2014 5:14pm
Quoting Pipsforall
{quote} Other than flows, the fundamentals don't support a EURO at this price, the fundamentals support a Euro priced in the mid to high 1.20s. ....
Please explain how do you know which price value is right for any currency pair?
swing it!
  • #883,596
  • Mar 16, 2014 5:14pm Mar 16, 2014 5:14pm
Quoting Pipsforall
{quote} Other than flows, the fundamentals don't support a EURO at this price, the fundamentals support a Euro priced in the mid to high 1.20s. At some point the technicals do follow the fundamentals. I for one do not believe that the EURO will break out, and that this is a false break, and we're in a topping area. Creating tops are usually very choppy.
1.4250 would be the next level and it was set back in Oct 2011, it might take a while to get it back up there again if that is what they want to do.
  • #883,597
  • Mar 16, 2014 5:28pm Mar 16, 2014 5:28pm
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} And how do you judge those fundis? WE (u.s.) have 17 trillion in debt. Europe doesn't. investors are coming bck to Europe. for all we know, the euro maybe cheap on path to 1.8-2.0. What happens if Yellen eventually starts another stimulus in the years to come? i just don't understand when people say the fundis should lead to a certain exchange rate, no one knows. if Europe drops Russian energy and buys for US energy, wouldn't a stronger currencybe better so that energy is cheaper? lots of ponder and no one knows.
The European Countries that use the Euro owe more than the US combined. Further, Yellen might start stimulus again, but right now the FED will continue to taper, and will taper another $10 billion at the next FED meeting, while Draghi verbally stated last week the ECB might take steps to weaken the currency at their next meeting, plus it's going to be years before the US has the infrastructure in place to really make any noticeable dent into Europe's energy needs. China's economy is tanking, there might be a civil war in the Ukraine with Russia taking a side, and the Eurozone economy other than Germany isn't that great, it's just flatlined to low growth or low retraction while the US economy looks to begin taking off now that the winter is almost over. We'll see, but I think the Euro will drop.

European Country National Debt:

Germany 5,719,000,000,000
France 5,165,000,000,000
Netherlands 2,655,489,600,000
Luxembourg2,643,000,000,000
Italy 2,460,000,000,000
Spain 2,290,000,000,000
Ireland 2,163,000,000,000
Belgium1,424,000,000,000
Denmark 626,900,000,000
Greece 583,300,000,000
Finland 577,700,000,000
Portugal 548,800,000,000
Monaco16,500,000,000
Latvia 35,340,000,000
Slovenia 61,230,000,000
Slovakia 68,440,000,000
Yay! Pips for everyone!
  • #883,598
  • Mar 16, 2014 5:29pm Mar 16, 2014 5:29pm
Quoting tomspin
{quote} Please explain how do you know which price value is right for any currency pair?

Prior to 2008, interest rate differentials were the primary driver of currency exchange rates. Someday it will be again, but based on the current differentials the Euro is overpriced. However, remember the market is always right, and right now the market says the Euro is worth 1.39. lol But, I think we're in a topping area and the market will soon tell us the Euro is overpriced.
Yay! Pips for everyone!
  • #883,599
  • Mar 16, 2014 5:34pm Mar 16, 2014 5:34pm
Quoting Pipsforall
{quote} The European Countries that use the Euro owe more than the US combined. Further, Yellen might start stimulus again, but right now the FED will continue to taper, and will taper another $10 billion at the next FED meeting, while Draghi verbally stated last week the ECB might take steps to weaken the currency at their next meeting, plus it's going to be years before the US has the infrastructure in place to really make any noticeable dent into Europe's energy needs. China's economy is tanking, there might be a civil war in the Ukraine with...

Nice explanation, more then anyone else has tried to offer arguing their views.
  • #883,600
  • Mar 16, 2014 5:38pm Mar 16, 2014 5:38pm
Quoting Pipsforall
{quote} The European Countries that use the Euro owe more than the US combined. Further, Yellen might start stimulus again, but right now the FED will continue to taper, and will taper another $10 billion at the next FED meeting, while Draghi verbally stated last week the ECB might take steps to weaken the currency at their next meeting, plus it's going to be years before the US has the infrastructure in place to really make any noticeable dent into Europe's energy needs. China's economy is tanking, there might be a civil war in the Ukraine with...
First, where did you get those numbers? They are incorrect.

Second, I didn't say it wouldn't drop , I said it is nonsense to say it should and at a certain exchange rate, especially withou giving a model of your analysis.

third, china isn't tanking, they might be slowing , but not tanking. They are will growing at 7%+! Stop reading to much ZH.


if the yuan becomes more liquid/easier to buy for foreigners, I will invest in china happily, personal debt in china is low, plenty of room to grow.
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