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AUD/USD

  • #74,561
  • Mar 15, 2014 8:25am Mar 15, 2014 8:25am
Contrary to preceding speaker I see some more room for fall.
Both scenarios assume drop either to 0.8850/00 area or 0.85/0.86 area. Both plays will be invalid if we break 0.9133 BEFORE reaching to at least 0.8850/00 area.

Possible triggers :

a) (unfortunately) escalation of Crimea conflict after tommorows referendum (risk-off and outflows from AUD which is percieved as speculative currency)
b) bad data from China somehow shade (the recent) better ones from Australia
c) those who enthusiastically jumped on inverted head and shoulders pattern might be vulnerable to long squeeze

We shall see how it unfolds in upcoming days
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #74,562
  • Mar 15, 2014 9:55am Mar 15, 2014 9:55am
News that might affect the aussie...

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/...n/1037006.html
  • #74,563
  • Mar 15, 2014 11:27am Mar 15, 2014 11:27am
Quoting JollyBean
News that might affect the aussie... http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/...n/1037006.html


Jolly that would certainly put another spin on the market.

Found this while digging as well.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/11-ugl...180225780.html

Also noticed there is a bit of movement to physical assets on the share market scene. A known safe haven for large investors, see image below, most of the top movers AUD only in the image have been towards the mining sector / or metals and pharma.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #74,564
  • Edited 12:11pm Mar 15, 2014 11:47am | Edited 12:11pm
My charts are showing a more conservative run with more tight bands and sideways movements.

For me, I am on the side line until I see a stronger signal as to her direction. People are still saying we will get to 0.70 this year but with the strength and bad news that has been plaguing the AUD recently and her stubbornness to hold strong, I am not so sure anymore... Bias may be turning bullish.

Daily chart showing the below as well as the ichimoku
Thick Green Horizontal = Weekly Kijun
Thick Red Horizontal = Weekly Tenkan

We have been trading in this range since the 9th of Feb 2014 and currently are smack bang in the middle of the range. With the smaller time frame charts showing a slight bull preference, and the longer term charts showing a bearish preference.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 56 KB
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #74,565
  • Mar 16, 2014 2:21am Mar 16, 2014 2:21am
Hi Whackdiddy, thank your for fix the format, I copy and paste it from my phone, so yeahh.. Its a mess up format, but thanks for rela post it and make it nice format again to read at.
I've failed many times, but I took the lessons,and never give up.God Bless.
  • #74,566
  • Mar 16, 2014 12:51pm Mar 16, 2014 12:51pm
how do you guys feel about the AUD Motor Vehicle Sales numbers coming out? this it will stir up some volatility or no?
He who knows when he can fight and when he cannot, will be victorious.
  • #74,567
  • Mar 16, 2014 1:32pm Mar 16, 2014 1:32pm
LOL holy jeezus A/U longs.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #74,568
  • Mar 16, 2014 1:47pm Mar 16, 2014 1:47pm
Quoting neqrotik
lol holy jeezus a/u longs.
omg end of the world! The aud fell by 20bps!!!!! Arghh
  • #74,569
  • Mar 16, 2014 1:52pm Mar 16, 2014 1:52pm
Lol yes. An overreaction. Hey...i COULD have just deleted it ya know. xD
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #74,570
  • Mar 16, 2014 2:10pm Mar 16, 2014 2:10pm
The AUD/USD is quietly showing some very bullish price action.

The bulls are happy 0.9000 has held and the bears are happy 0.9100 has not given way. Taking a step back though it appears a reverse head and shoulders is in place now waiting for the neckline to be broken to the upside with a nice long consolidation in place which can be very healthy for a move upwards. If we get a break upwards I now believe as high as 0.9500 could be possible.

It seems RBA policy is now leaning towards a rate hike more than a rate cut. Something not talked about is the AUD/USD correlation to gold. Gold is on the move and this is supporting the AUD/USD.

Inserted Video
  • #74,571
  • Mar 16, 2014 2:14pm Mar 16, 2014 2:14pm
Quoting TheDDReport
how do you guys feel about the AUD Motor Vehicle Sales numbers coming out? this it will stir up some volatility or no?
Couldn't care less.
  • #74,572
  • Mar 16, 2014 5:09pm Mar 16, 2014 5:09pm
Quoting TheDDReport
how do you guys feel about the AUD Motor Vehicle Sales numbers coming out? this it will stir up some volatility or no?

In my 30 years of trading Australian financial derivatives , AUD Motor Vehicle Sales data has never , ever moved the market - not just FX but any market .
  • #74,573
  • Mar 16, 2014 5:19pm Mar 16, 2014 5:19pm
Hi there guys, early start of the week, got signals to get out of some of my trades in profit, my Short on USDJPY and Short GBPJPY which i have held from last week.
looking forward to another week of trading. and in my case. my careful management of the trades in my portfolio right now.

wish everyone green pips.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #74,574
  • Mar 16, 2014 5:26pm Mar 16, 2014 5:26pm
Quoting Balmain Boy
{quote} In my 30 years of trading Australian financial derivatives , AUD Motor Vehicle Sales data has never , ever moved the market - not just FX but any market .
agreed
  • #74,575
  • Mar 16, 2014 5:29pm Mar 16, 2014 5:29pm
Some intraday levels as Aud/Usd closes the gap: AUDUSD – Sell stops under Friday & today’s low at 0.8995. Light buy stops on break of 0.9050

I'm thinking abt a short on Aud/Nzd here soon, and an Aud/Usd short on a break of 0.8995 to trip sell orders with mine. I think the widening of the PBoC band will be tested more on the Usd/Cny topside w/ pboc help, putting more pressure on the Australian dollar. Westpac today released the best quarterly consumer sentiment rating for NZ in this current quarter. No bad news from NZ + the rate hike to put NZ IR > AU IR for like the first time ever?
  • #74,576
  • Mar 16, 2014 6:22pm Mar 16, 2014 6:22pm
Quoting EmeraldEyes
Some intraday levels as Aud/Usd closes the gap: AUDUSD – Sell stops under Friday & today’s low at 0.8995. Light buy stops on break of 0.9050 I'm thinking abt a short on Aud/Nzd here soon, and an Aud/Usd short on a break of 0.8995 to trip sell orders with mine. I think the widening of the PBoC band will be tested more on the Usd/Cny topside w/ pboc help, putting more pressure on the Australian dollar. Westpac today released the best quarterly consumer sentiment rating for NZ in this current...
AUD/NZD is in very strong support zone. I prefer long around 1.0550
  • #74,577
  • Mar 16, 2014 6:54pm Mar 16, 2014 6:54pm
As for the AU/NZD im short. Along with EUR/NZD Shorts. At market.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #74,578
  • Mar 16, 2014 8:30pm Mar 16, 2014 8:30pm
Quoting whackdiddy
{quote} So wanted to read however the format was messing with my head.. OCD much.. Had to reformat it. The problem with almost all beginner traders in the forex market, is they calculate all there would-be scenarios, like if I make 10% a month, I will be a millionaire in x years, or if I make x% per month I can retire in xyz months or whatever. THERE IS NO x% per month! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!Stop planning months in terms of returns!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The markets do not work like that. This is not a bank where you put in money and expect...
solid advice and really where the crux of successful regular trading lies.

the dreaming above the money and turbocharged returns part is fatal but so easy to do.
  • #74,579
  • Mar 16, 2014 8:46pm Mar 16, 2014 8:46pm
Long

Long w/ stops around 1.053
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  • #74,580
  • Mar 16, 2014 9:03pm Mar 16, 2014 9:03pm
I'm bullish on this pair, but I wish it would make a move and give me a signal to enter.
Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing.
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