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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #44,041
  • Mar 15, 2014 11:05am Mar 15, 2014 11:05am
Here is my input, I believe that this upcoming week will be for the bulls. Simply considering the strong fib support and divergence in stochastic on the daily chart, I believe that my premise is decent. I am open for suggestions to why this could be wrong.
http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/811/mb7h.png
  • #44,042
  • Edited 12:57pm Mar 15, 2014 12:42pm | Edited 12:57pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} Do traders actually read that stuff? LOL Seriously, I am wondering. I'm trying to figure out if today's move had any fundamental reason(s) to it, as they occasionally do... Or if it was all "technical", which is usually the case.
Yep. Bank traders, hedge fund/portfolio managers read them to stay ahead of the BoJ. Its been widely expected that no new changes will come from the BoJ until AFTER Japan's sales tax hike in April, then the bank will asses and change QQE to accommodate. Meeting minutes are a good place to look for upcoming concerns as they'll document how many were for or against publishing a statement in the MPS. Most noted has been BoJ member, Takahide Kiuchi's opposition of the 2% inflationary goal, and has wanted to change BOJ MPS bc of it (but always gets voted against)

Also: algos would take that statement and are programmed to search for "additional easing" to short the JPY, for example. Same thing as when the RBNZ posted a rate increased. Computers saw the "2.75" in the rate decision and immediately longed the NZD (this is milliseconds though)
  • #44,043
  • Mar 15, 2014 12:54pm Mar 15, 2014 12:54pm
Quoting Forexia
{quote} Not a blip on the chart. Took a position for frekking nothing. Oh well, at least I didn't lose any pips.
What in the 3 week-old meeting minutes made you take a position to short the Yen? Or do you just trade on every event?

This is what the markets are focused on: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...0MB12K20140314 When you see flows in to JPY(JGBs), CHF and GOLD, there's global concern to cause flows in to safe-haven assets. The riskier assets will be used to fund them (Equities, Aud,Nzd)
  • #44,044
  • Mar 15, 2014 4:55pm Mar 15, 2014 4:55pm
I'm thinking about going long.

http://charts.mql5.com/4/175/usdjpy-...-markets-2.png
Follow me at andrewfx2020 (dot) com
  • #44,045
  • Mar 16, 2014 2:27am Mar 16, 2014 2:27am
Quoting AussieForexM
I'm thinking about going long. {image}

I would wait for a stronger signal, I am long at the moment with two positions and stressing a little over the vote today in the Ukraine. This thing could go way down.

The chart below shows the D1 with the following drawn in..
Weekly Tenkan = Red Horizontal
Weekly Kijun = Blue Horizontal

We are currently low in the weekly range which normally would support a long position, however we have a TK cross to the downside below the cloud signaling bearish strength. We have a major resistance line @ 103.163 being near the weekly high, as far as support goes, we have the 100.991 to break before seeing more downside, but if this breaks there is not much support to hold it back.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #44,046
  • Mar 16, 2014 2:31am Mar 16, 2014 2:31am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Just one question. Why this last shitty bar is red?
Looking at the last candle, it appears to show the daily spread. So i think I got excited for no reason.. move along, nothing to see here.. lol
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #44,047
  • Mar 16, 2014 3:11am Mar 16, 2014 3:11am
I think that middle time is yen time
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  • #44,048
  • Edited 3:59am Mar 16, 2014 3:42am | Edited 3:59am
DXY at a strong support… My sentiment is that will have a change in direction - going to north stations… i believe that FOMC, that take place in mid week, will help also...

DXY will be ALSO responsible for the upcoming correction on the gold… lets see...

PS… while the correlation coefficient on the usdjpy hits the +66% on the gold it touches the -76%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #44,049
  • Mar 16, 2014 4:08am Mar 16, 2014 4:08am
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  • #44,050
  • Mar 16, 2014 4:42am Mar 16, 2014 4:42am
Quoting mamalujo
{image}
love it!
f(z)=z2+c
  • #44,051
  • Mar 16, 2014 5:54am Mar 16, 2014 5:54am
Quoting mamalujo
{image}
U are right but no one know when it will be. it's about time.
  • #44,052
  • Mar 16, 2014 6:02am Mar 16, 2014 6:02am
Quoting spinozagr
DXY at a strong support… My sentiment is that will have a change in direction - going to north stations… i believe that FOMC, that take place in mid week, will help also... DXY will be ALSO responsible for the upcoming correction on the gold… lets see... PS… while the correlation coefficient on the usdjpy hits the +66% on the gold it touches the -76% {image}
It would be great if that happens, but there a some fundamentals to take into account. I've read here and there that China -large US debt holder, hence US Dollar holder- might need to sell UST to fix or at least mitigate it's credit mess, which is something we can't ignore, and would hurt a lot the dollar. Also, some rumours point that if Crimean conflict escalates, and US & Europe takes sanctions against Russia, they could respond to this stopping doing international bussiness with US dollars, among other counter-measures agains the US. We can't also forget Russian dollar reserves selling to slow down USD/RUB, but of course the influence of this to DXY is minimal.

Next weeks will be very interesting and with a lot of opportunities in my opinion.
  • #44,053
  • Mar 16, 2014 9:01am Mar 16, 2014 9:01am

  1. 17:59
  2. "The Russian and German leaders discussed the current crisis in Ukraine, as well as the Crimean referendum being held on Sunday. Putin said that the Crimean referendum is proceeding in full compliance with international law, first of all Article 1 of the UN Charter, which seals the principle of the nations' equality and right to self-determination.
  3. 17:57
    Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Angela Merkel held telephone talks on Sunday, the Kremlin press service reported.
    Read more: http://voiceofrussia.com/2014_03_16/...-UPDATES-1196/

A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #44,054
  • Mar 16, 2014 9:34am Mar 16, 2014 9:34am
Quoting InsiderFX
{quote} It would be great if that happens, but there a some fundamentals to take into account. I've read here and there that China -large US debt holder, hence US Dollar holder- might need to sell UST to fix or at least mitigate it's credit mess, which is something we can't ignore, and would hurt a lot the dollar. Also, some rumours point that if Crimean conflict escalates, and US & Europe takes sanctions against Russia, they could respond to this stopping doing international bussiness with US dollars, among other counter-measures agains the US....
I present the chart technically speaking… Sure we have to take into account all the possible parameters...

Quote
Next weeks will be very interesting and with a lot of opportunities in my opinion.

thats for sure...
The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #44,055
  • Mar 16, 2014 11:19am Mar 16, 2014 11:19am
:-) what do you think guys?
Attached Image
  • #44,056
  • Mar 16, 2014 11:35am Mar 16, 2014 11:35am
This week planning for trade USD/JPY
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  • #44,057
  • Mar 16, 2014 12:18pm Mar 16, 2014 12:18pm
Quoting iyas120
This week planning for trade USD/JPY {image}
Hi iyas120!
Is that an indicator (which shows some lower timeframe)? Would you tell me the name of it?
f(z)=z2+c
  • #44,058
  • Mar 16, 2014 12:26pm Mar 16, 2014 12:26pm
  •  Owl
  • | Joined Dec 2012 | Status: FX Siphoner Of Symphonies | 435 Posts
so where's it gonna go only time will tell

but I'm banking on the continuation
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  • #44,059
  • Mar 16, 2014 12:42pm Mar 16, 2014 12:42pm
Quoting whackdiddy
Is this just a tease, my broker last shows me sitting at 101.388 but this chart at fxempire shows as below. Can someone confirm? {image}
Here is what I have, and there is more than one difference....

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Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #44,060
  • Mar 16, 2014 1:20pm Mar 16, 2014 1:20pm
at the time of speaking... no significant gap… 101.309
The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
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