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  • #883,501
  • Mar 14, 2014 3:39pm Mar 14, 2014 3:39pm
is there a referendum for Crimea over the weekend? No matter what the result it is, it is going to be a mess.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #883,502
  • Mar 14, 2014 3:40pm Mar 14, 2014 3:40pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} It is not for the land of Ukraine. It is just that Russia does not want the west influence gets close to its door.
they have to give up something then,,,, as long as they want commerce...outside influence will come with it. where does it stop? ukrain has neighbors influencing those borders and so on. if he puts russia in a depression he may be looking for a new place to live die
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #883,503
  • Mar 14, 2014 3:44pm Mar 14, 2014 3:44pm
if you guys look at the chart it look like it ready to break out this slump to the downside
  • #883,504
  • Mar 14, 2014 3:46pm Mar 14, 2014 3:46pm
Europe depends on natural gas due to stupid EU legislation about reducing emissions and turning from oil to natural gas as green energy. After 20 or so years of forcing factories to use NG & with most homes now in Northern Europe being heated and in many cases having NG electricity it would be very difficult to overcome any supply interruption from Russia. EU imports approx. 40% NG from Russia, 40% from Norway and 20% from North Africa. Norway can produce and export that much because of its own needs, Algeria & Libya are not really stable, while EU produces only about 25% of its NG consumption. Cut the 40% import from Russia and you can't cover your needs in 100% unless you can quickly create a pipe from US through the Atlantic.

http://ec.europa.eu/energy/observatory/gas/gas_en.htm

http://ec.europa.eu/energy/observato...as_markets.pdf

EU is in a bad position and that's why you hear nothing from them as of late on the matter. They created the mess - probably US was behind them - by overthrowing the Ukranian government and replacing them with a fascist government and now they just can't do anything about Crimea and they are simply watching and crying about possible sanctions on Russia, while on the same time they beg Russia not to leave OSCE. The EU leaders are the real muppets and a pretty good example why the whole EU is a joke and it just ended up as a better plan for the Germans to overtake Europe without arms.
  • #883,505
  • Mar 14, 2014 3:47pm Mar 14, 2014 3:47pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} they have to give up something then,,,, as long as they want commerce...outside influence will come with it. where does it stop? ukrain has neighbors influencing those borders and so on. if he puts russia in a depression he may be looking for a new place to live die
What if the west want to deploy military defense systems in Ukraine?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #883,506
  • Mar 14, 2014 3:51pm Mar 14, 2014 3:51pm
Quoting ffleo
is there a referendum for Crimea over the weekend? No matter what the result it is, it is going to be a mess.
Yeah the Crimean referendum is this Sunday. I just can't believe the brit is in the same boat as EU regarding this fiasco and yet GU went up like 20+ pips and EU has actually gone down few pips.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #883,507
  • Mar 14, 2014 3:52pm Mar 14, 2014 3:52pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} What if the west want to deploy military defense systems in Ukraine?
the current Ukraine government already seek military support from the west.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #883,508
  • Mar 14, 2014 3:54pm Mar 14, 2014 3:54pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} the current Ukraine government already seek military support from the west.
yeah whatever Russia doesn't even want Ukraine. It's the eastern part of Ukraine who wants to separate and join Russia. Seriously the west can have Ukraine, one more future bail-out country in EU.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #883,509
  • Mar 14, 2014 4:00pm Mar 14, 2014 4:00pm
Quoting Forexia
{quote} yeah whatever Russia doesn't even want Ukraine. It's the eastern part of Ukraine who wants to separate and join Russia. Seriously the west can have Ukraine, one more future bail-out country in EU.
it is not about money.

Russia would rather Ukraine splits, than the whole Ukraine joining the west. Just like you do not want your neighbor join other people doing things against you. You will cut your neighbor tires, break your neighbors window, or burn your neighbors house to give a warning. But yourself do not want to move out, since you are the local boss in your neighbor. You just want your neighbor listen to you, not to someones live 5 blocks away.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #883,510
  • Mar 14, 2014 4:09pm Mar 14, 2014 4:09pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} it is not about money. Russia would rather Ukraine splits, than the whole Ukraine joining the west. Just like you do not want your neighbor join other people doing things against you.
No what's gonna happen is that seeing this Crimea's referendum as a precedence (provided it's a successful one this weekend), the rest of the eastern Ukraine that has strong traditional ties with Russia is going to want their own referendum too one region after another wanting to get out of Ukraine. If Russia wants a buffer zone between itself and the west, it's NOT going to necessarily let them join Russia but will have tremendous influence over them. So eventually Ukraine will split. The whole Ukraine will NOT all join west as much as west wants UNLESS the west all of sudden got rich enough to buy them off (Yes, money REALLY does talks; it trumps over EVERYTHING, even nationalism) but that's not going to happen.

Regardless, there is going to be lot of turmoils ahead in the little land of Ukraine thanks to the west's meddling. Holding EU LONG over the weekend to see what happens on Sunday. God, I've NEVER held positions over the weekend before. It's gonna be a nervous weekend for me that's for sure plus an expensive one as I am paying the swaps. ​
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #883,511
  • Mar 14, 2014 4:15pm Mar 14, 2014 4:15pm
Quoting gatorinla
if we make a new high, (but under 3995.x). i may close and re-enter 3905 (or less to 3832) next week. bulls want to close this week 3907+, 3960 even stronger in the close 2.5 h from now, R2950/60,, they dont exist.
my close was here... now its up to russia
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #883,512
  • Mar 14, 2014 4:17pm Mar 14, 2014 4:17pm
Quoting Forexia
{quote} No what's gonna happen is that seeing this Crimea's referendum as a precedence (provided it's a successful one this weekend), the rest of the eastern Ukraine that has strong traditional ties with Russia is going to want their own referendum too one region after another wanting to get out of Ukraine. If Russia wants a buffer zone between itself and the west, it's NOT going to necessarily let them join Russia but will have tremendous influence over them. So eventually Ukraine will split. The whole Ukraine will NOT all join west as much as...
Just because the east Ukrainians do not want to join the west, most likely Ukraine will split as you said.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #883,513
  • Mar 14, 2014 4:23pm Mar 14, 2014 4:23pm
There's always the chance of having egg-on-face by making predictions, but it's super clear now this thing will be sent to 1.41+ in the coming two weeks. Wednesday's FOMC will be the catalyst...
  • #883,514
  • Mar 14, 2014 4:23pm Mar 14, 2014 4:23pm
from the way spx parked, I favor a spike down of spx on Crimea referendum.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #883,515
  • Mar 14, 2014 4:25pm Mar 14, 2014 4:25pm
Quoting Brassboy
There's always the chance of having egg-on-face by making predictions, but it's super clear now this thing will be sent to 1.41+ in the coming two weeks. Wednesday's FOMC will be the catalyst...
why you are brass-boy, not copper-boy, or silver boy?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #883,516
  • Mar 14, 2014 4:25pm Mar 14, 2014 4:25pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} Just because the east Ukrainians do not want to join the west, most likely Ukraine will split as you said.
And they should. Why stay together when you don't see eye-to-eye on things anymore, come from different background and are going to fight all the time? That's why people divorce. The key thing is negotiating a good alimony package and favourable division of assets and debts. Then everybody can move on.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #883,517
  • Mar 14, 2014 4:27pm Mar 14, 2014 4:27pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} why you are brass-boy, not copper-boy, or silver boy?
Which one of these do you think sounds better?
  • #883,518
  • Mar 14, 2014 4:36pm Mar 14, 2014 4:36pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} What if the west want to deploy military defense systems in Ukraine?
i think they do want that. with modern warfare and missiles, a few hundred miles is just minutes away. putin needs to make up his mind on what he wants to be. does he want commerce or to take back the old ussr. they went broke the first time. while germany italy and japan did well, not paying for the bulk of a military.
i personally think there will always be wars. its what man does well. if one wants a war, many are willing to give one. in 1929 we had a crash and in the mid 30ties war was near. in 2008 we had a crash and here we are 6 years later. tear it down so we can rebuild it..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #883,519
  • Edited 4:55pm Mar 14, 2014 4:41pm | Edited 4:55pm
The week is ending with still hope for the bears. The Dragui wick was challenged in a reasonable way not too bullish up there. Actually if you look at the last 4 daily bars the bottom was more challenged than the top. Lets see what will happen with Ukraine
So, you think you have rights? LOL
  • #883,520
  • Mar 14, 2014 4:59pm Mar 14, 2014 4:59pm
Moody's just released a report affirming Aaa rating moving them to STABLE from Negative citing govt finances are in order for EU. No fucking wonder why sovereigns were reported to have supported the 1.3900 bid.

Anyway. We'll see what else happens. Ill look up the actual moody's report and ill copy/paste here tomorrow.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
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