Just an observation:
The correlation between trends, M.A.s and news events:
If a trend is going up, and the moving averages are in good shape, this is a sign that the dominant currency in a pair is in an economy that is doing well. The news surprises in an economy that is doing well will usually be on the positive side. This is a correlation that is as much predictive as not!
(Sorry for all the esoteric math)
The correlation between trends, M.A.s and news events:
If a trend is going up, and the moving averages are in good shape, this is a sign that the dominant currency in a pair is in an economy that is doing well. The news surprises in an economy that is doing well will usually be on the positive side. This is a correlation that is as much predictive as not!
(Sorry for all the esoteric math)