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  • #883,021
  • Mar 13, 2014 8:01am Mar 13, 2014 8:01am
close all my shorts 10-20 pips profit
and move to GBP/USD (short also)
i want more pips
Good Luck all of you
  • #883,022
  • Mar 13, 2014 8:07am Mar 13, 2014 8:07am
Until whatever the fucking phantom flow out there is selling USD, good data doesnt really matter.

Not enough spec money to fight it.


On rate differential basis.... https://twitter.com/fxmacro/status/4...023936/photo/1
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #883,023
  • Mar 13, 2014 8:11am Mar 13, 2014 8:11am
Quoting ferinacci
Hey friends instead of shorting eur/usd , start to short GBP/USD !! believe me

+25 Pips
  • #883,024
  • Mar 13, 2014 8:13am Mar 13, 2014 8:13am
Quoting Citiboy
Until whatever the fucking phantom flow out there is selling USD, good data doesnt really matter. Not enough spec money to fight it. On rate differential basis.... https://twitter.com/fxmacro/status/4...023936/photo/1
Jeremy showed these few months ago as well, Its a wrong bet since Nov, just think about it if you are trading based on those spreads you should be selling since last Q2013,

edit: make it jan 2014

however there could be a strategy here beyond my knowledge
swing it!
  • #883,025
  • Mar 13, 2014 8:13am Mar 13, 2014 8:13am
Quoting Citiboy
Until whatever the fucking phantom flow out there is selling USD, good data doesnt really matter. Not enough spec money to fight it. On rate differential basis.... https://twitter.com/fxmacro/status/4...023936/photo/1
Scalping goldmine right here.
  • #883,026
  • Mar 13, 2014 8:19am Mar 13, 2014 8:19am
Quoting tomspin
{quote} Jeremy showed these few months ago as well, Its a wrong bet since Nov, just think about it if you are trading based on those spreads you should be selling since last Q2013, edit: make it jan 2014 however there could be a strategy here beyond my knowledge
Correlation does not always stand. While it is useful to incorporate correlation and statistics into arbitrage models or even quant trading models, one must note that when using stats to base decisions off, statistics don't always hold and the result it gives varies with it's sample size/parameters.
  • #883,027
  • Mar 13, 2014 8:22am Mar 13, 2014 8:22am
I dont look at interest rate differentials as a correlation. I see it as the main driver of FX rates outside of one off flows.

I base most of my long term views on rates. (excluding situations where theres huge current account flows)
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #883,028
  • Mar 13, 2014 8:24am Mar 13, 2014 8:24am
Quoting tomspin
{quote} Jeremy showed these few months ago as well, Its a wrong bet since Nov, just think about it if you are trading based on those spreads you should be selling since last Q2013, edit: make it jan 2014 however there could be a strategy here beyond my knowledge
Since AQR related EUR buying and Vodafone related GBP buying started both of those pairs have gone off track in terms of rate differentials, but I categorize those both as one off flows that subside after a few months.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #883,029
  • Mar 13, 2014 8:30am Mar 13, 2014 8:30am
If I took a wild guess, China has to diversify all the USD its buying as it pushes USDCNY higher. That is a relatively recent development given when USDCNY started its move. Central bank diversification is almost the only way to get this massively broad dollar weakness, thats irrespective of data or other flows.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #883,030
  • Mar 13, 2014 8:48am Mar 13, 2014 8:48am
Enough is enough. Now U turn for EU. Short 3955 TP:tbd SL:tbd
  • #883,031
  • Mar 13, 2014 8:48am Mar 13, 2014 8:48am
Quoting Leijenberg
{quote} Don't forget about 7 uptrend weeks in a row is very unlikely to happen.. this pair will break before our bear spirit
In 2004 there were like 10 weeks rise in a row...either that or my chart is screwed
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #883,032
  • Mar 13, 2014 8:50am Mar 13, 2014 8:50am
Quoting Citiboy
Until whatever the fucking phantom flow out there is selling USD, good data doesnt really matter. Not enough spec money to fight it. On rate differential basis.... https://twitter.com/fxmacro/status/4...023936/photo/1
on the twitter, if fxmacro sell euro and the euro reach 1.29 in 3 month, where will the 2 years interest rate differential graph at that time?
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #883,033
  • Mar 13, 2014 8:53am Mar 13, 2014 8:53am
All those zirp policies and money creation deteriorate trading based on fundamentals, I stoped tracking this since I was wrong so many times, still taking big picture in consideration but trying to focus on techs more. Kind of confused about every NFP and un claims each time they come out and what FOMC will do about them.
I admire people who can use all those correlations between the markets and take directional trades on them since old model stocks=>bonds=>commodities=.currencies is dead. My knowledge is limited, still like to see a different perspective from others.
swing it!
  • #883,034
  • Mar 13, 2014 8:56am Mar 13, 2014 8:56am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} in 2004 there were like 10 weeks rise in a row...either that or my chart is screwed
2003 9 weeks
2004 8 weeks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: KWEEK.png Size: 22 KB
  • #883,035
  • Mar 13, 2014 9:00am Mar 13, 2014 9:00am
Quoting ud1nh0
{quote} on the twitter, if fxmacro sell euro and the euro reach 1.29 in 3 month, where will the 2 years interest rate differential graph at that time?
Divergence will converge eventually, it's just we don't know which one is the driver. It might be interest rate catch up with fx rate.
  • #883,036
  • Mar 13, 2014 9:05am Mar 13, 2014 9:05am
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} 2003 9 weeks 2004 8 weeks {image}
03/10/2004 on my chart it's green...hence its 11 weeks in a row.

Stupid charts
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #883,037
  • Mar 13, 2014 9:06am Mar 13, 2014 9:06am
guys anyone trading on CAD JPY ....??
see if this channel works by the end of 4 hr candle
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD JPY.jpg Size: 147 KB
  • #883,038
  • Mar 13, 2014 9:08am Mar 13, 2014 9:08am
Quoting Darkforce
{quote} Divergence will converge eventually, it's just we don't know which one is the driver. It might be interest rate catch up with fx rate.
For traders who do in fact use that as a tool, mean reversion is probably the way that trading strategy that it will implemented.
  • #883,039
  • Mar 13, 2014 9:12am Mar 13, 2014 9:12am
Quoting PayTheLimit
try some longs at 3938, risk 3931, try for 3968
moved my sl on these to 3935, for better or worse, back for the bill later...gl, PTL...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #883,040
  • Mar 13, 2014 9:19am Mar 13, 2014 9:19am
Draghi speech in about 03 hours, take EUR / USD at 1.3790
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