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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #43,821
  • Edited 10:39am Mar 7, 2014 10:27am | Edited 10:39am
Current pattern could appear similar to past one.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Management of drawdown is true skill to trading.
  • #43,822
  • Mar 7, 2014 10:41am Mar 7, 2014 10:41am
Hello Yen masters

Man lost a bit of confidence trading this pair
with that last retrace.
Got 3 longs under water
lucky small ones
not sure what happened to 101

Not sure what it will do now

any ideas
  • #43,823
  • Mar 7, 2014 11:11am Mar 7, 2014 11:11am
eliteincome,

first identify the trend,
second look for support and resistence
third make a trading plan
jump in in the direction of the trend...

good luck :-)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #43,824
  • Mar 7, 2014 11:53am Mar 7, 2014 11:53am
Hi Peach

Yeah all good

long any way

but these random retraces

are we bit nasty.

I was just trying to workout would we see 101

before 104

I thought 103 then 101

find out next week

great charts Thanks
  • #43,825
  • Mar 7, 2014 12:12pm Mar 7, 2014 12:12pm
Quoting eliteincome
Hi Peach Yeah all good long any way but these random retraces are we bit nasty. I was just trying to workout would we see 101 before 104 I thought 103 then 101 find out next week great charts Thanks
wow.

such poetic.

much impressed.

very haiku
Shit Happens
  • #43,826
  • Mar 7, 2014 12:54pm Mar 7, 2014 12:54pm
Hello US/JPY

If all this happens great for my existing longs
bit weary after all the retraces



5- Positioning is limited in USD/JPY, the recent rise having been driven by small amounts of real money buying. Hedge funds are not involved and options topside positioning is clearer.
In line with this view, UBS entered a fresh USD/JPY position as a trade recommendation from 103.00, targeting 105.00 initially and then 110.00, with a stop at 101.00.
  • #43,827
  • Mar 7, 2014 1:05pm Mar 7, 2014 1:05pm
Quoting eliteincome
In line with this view, UBS entered a fresh USD/JPY position as a trade recommendation from 103.00, targeting 105.00 initially and then 110.00, with a stop at 101.00.
Haha yeah, they entered a long position of 1 micro lot.
  • #43,828
  • Mar 7, 2014 1:35pm Mar 7, 2014 1:35pm
Quoting eliteincome
Hello Yen masters Man lost a bit of confidence trading this pair with that last retrace. Got 3 longs under water lucky small ones not sure what happened to 101 Not sure what it will do now any ideas
Same here.....I lost confidence trading the pair....I am all short for U/J,e/j and gbp/j......
  • #43,829
  • Mar 7, 2014 3:30pm Mar 7, 2014 3:30pm
Quoting Oasis dream
{quote} Same here.....I lost confidence trading the pair....I am all short for U/J,e/j and gbp/j......

Goodluck... I am the complete opposite... long AUDJPY too...

I wouldnt be caught dead long the YEN right now... I feel like the only kid on the block who is short the YEN across the board... and I love it.
  • #43,830
  • Mar 7, 2014 3:32pm Mar 7, 2014 3:32pm
Quoting dhussey
{quote} Goodluck... I am the complete opposite... long AUDJPY too... I wouldnt be caught dead long the YEN right now... I feel like the only kid on the block who is short the YEN across the board... and I love it.

.... and been long since Sunday, granted the positions are all very profitable for me, but the longer term charts are showing SERIOUS signs of reversals... This is a rare time when technical align with fundamentals ... there isnt much reason to be long YEN. IMHO this is a perfect storm for the YEN...
  • #43,831
  • Mar 7, 2014 4:37pm Mar 7, 2014 4:37pm
Quoting dhussey
{quote} .... and been long since Sunday, granted the positions are all very profitable for me, but the longer term charts are showing SERIOUS signs of reversals... This is a rare time when technical align with fundamentals ... there isnt much reason to be long YEN. IMHO this is a perfect storm for the YEN...
I dun think there is reversal...... I think yen will still be bullish. U made a good choice
  • #43,832
  • Mar 7, 2014 6:27pm Mar 7, 2014 6:27pm
Quoting Oasis dream
{quote} I dun think there is reversal...... I think yen will still be bullish. U made a good choice
Yen bullish = usdjpy down .... Yen is bearish and it already reversed off all time highs... Lows for usdjpy
  • #43,833
  • Mar 7, 2014 6:51pm Mar 7, 2014 6:51pm
Sorry what I meant was I see that the pair is still bullish.....meaning I think that the pair will go up higher to 104 and above......but that's just my opinion
  • #43,834
  • Mar 8, 2014 9:46am Mar 8, 2014 9:46am
Quoting eliteincome
Hi Peach Yeah all good long any way but these random retraces are we bit nasty. I was just trying to workout would we see 101 before 104 I thought 103 then 101 find out next week great charts Thanks
we have tested 101 2 times, I don´t think it will be tested a third time, but lets see ;-)

one possibillity is in the chart. Up first to test 104, then drop back 2 times to test kumo cloud. Good entry point for late buyers.

the usd has a bullish divergence on the daily usd/lfx. the usd/lfx is an index to measure the strenght or weakness of the usd against a basket of other currencys. there is also such an index for the yen, but its called lfx/jpy. So in the lfx/jpy chart it means, if price climbs higher, the yen is more bearish against other currencys.

Spot on the stock market: the s&p500 has a daily doji, spinning top or hig wave candle, so on monday there is a chance for an evening star. If a stock market correction is on the way, there will be yen buying and usd/jpy might drop again. Lets see how the market react on chinas export fall.
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  • #43,835
  • Mar 9, 2014 11:08am Mar 9, 2014 11:08am
May way too early prediction is that it looks like the up move is exhausted or near exhaustion. I can see back to 101.8 before another move up. Of course I really wouldn't want to be shorting yen. However, what I see by my methodology looks down first.

So, down to 102.95......stall and decide to resume up again, or what I think will happen down to 102.7.......stall, back up to 102.95 then down to 102.31....stall then down to 101.8. At least as of right now that's how I see it playing out. Below 102.31 I might put a very small short to target 101.8 but I wont short before then.
  • #43,836
  • Mar 9, 2014 11:31am Mar 9, 2014 11:31am
Its gapping down like crazy!! 102.66 on XE right now.

EDIT* It seems to be rising by the minute. I might have 'spoken' too soon.
  • #43,837
  • Mar 9, 2014 11:56am Mar 9, 2014 11:56am
102.80 now… which the reason behind this gap down?
The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #43,838
  • Mar 9, 2014 12:21pm Mar 9, 2014 12:21pm
Quoting spinozagr
102.80 now… which the reason behind this gap down?
bad china economic data over the weekend. JPY is an risk off currency, hence the drop in USD/Jpy.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #43,839
  • Mar 9, 2014 12:21pm Mar 9, 2014 12:21pm
Quoting spinozagr
102.80 now… which the reason behind this gap down?
bad Chinese data... again... maybe...

I would not worry about it (unless I was short), looking for UJ to hit new highs by month end!
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #43,840
  • Mar 9, 2014 12:26pm Mar 9, 2014 12:26pm
Quoting Alki
{quote} Stopped and again a confirmation for myself that newbie lessons like ascending wedge, channels, h&s ..etc are as stupid things as betting on red or black on casino, maybe yes, maybe no. Means no use for such things. Come back to my hard calculations with relation between price and timing. If a trader has not that, he could see if got chance in his own life to expect betting in trading. So, more seriously, according to Gann square, we should begin to see a long retrace, specially on time, for at least 36 trading hours. Price action shows...
Looks like Bear begin to work on UJ and my short on GJ at 172.80 begin to give some gain at before open. Let's see this week what could this pair has to offer to bear.
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
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