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  • #882,021
  • Mar 7, 2014 11:56am Mar 7, 2014 11:56am
I'm really curious to see the shape of the daily bar today 4 more hours to go.
So, you think you have rights? LOL
  • #882,022
  • Mar 7, 2014 12:06pm Mar 7, 2014 12:06pm
Quoting Citiboy
I am actually more interested in this for the EUR side of things. A very strong US economy will mean a faster reduction in QE and hiking of rates, the concept of a strong recovery is something that was almost written off as early as yesterday. Its hard to overstate the possible sentiment shift thats occurring here, people were saying NFP was going to be sub 100k and all... USD was getting blasted. Now the number is 175k, AND thats with twice as many people as usual in recent February months affected by weather. All this means that eventually the...
the problem is the unlimited printing of yen. The worthless yen will buy everything up, but it has difficulty with the US dollar which is also printing.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #882,023
  • Mar 7, 2014 12:07pm Mar 7, 2014 12:07pm
Quoting Citiboy
I am actually more interested in this for the EUR side of things. A very strong US economy will mean a faster reduction in QE and hiking of rates, the concept of a strong recovery is something that was almost written off as early as yesterday. Its hard to overstate the possible sentiment shift thats occurring here, people were saying NFP was going to be sub 100k and all... USD was getting blasted. Now the number is 175k, AND thats with twice as many people as usual in recent February months affected by weather. All this means that eventually the...
I like what I see, fantastic.
Loosening is not an option
  • #882,024
  • Mar 7, 2014 12:12pm Mar 7, 2014 12:12pm
Quoting Citiboy
I am actually more interested in this for the EUR side of things. A very strong US economy will mean a faster reduction in QE and hiking of rates, the concept of a strong recovery is something that was almost written off as early as yesterday. Its hard to overstate the possible sentiment shift thats occurring here, people were saying NFP was going to be sub 100k and all... USD was getting blasted. Now the number is 175k, AND thats with twice as many people as usual in recent February months affected by weather. All this means that eventually the...
Excellent summary...
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #882,025
  • Mar 7, 2014 12:14pm Mar 7, 2014 12:14pm
if we have a conflict in ukraine during the weekend, what will happen? euro down?
  • #882,026
  • Mar 7, 2014 12:16pm Mar 7, 2014 12:16pm
this morning at data release, everything spiked up against yen. why yen is so active at US data release while asian session is almost dead?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #882,027
  • Mar 7, 2014 12:17pm Mar 7, 2014 12:17pm
Quoting artocarpus
if we have a conflict in ukraine during the weekend, what will happen? euro down?
Euro down, USD/JPY down, GBP down. EUR/JPY very down, GBP/JPY very down.
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #882,028
  • Mar 7, 2014 12:18pm Mar 7, 2014 12:18pm
Quoting artocarpus
if we have a conflict in ukraine during the weekend, what will happen? euro down?

man wait till march 16th then para-Olympics will be finished, Crimea region will go voting and then we will see what will happen
Loosening is not an option
  • #882,029
  • Mar 7, 2014 12:23pm Mar 7, 2014 12:23pm
Quoting ffleo
this morning at data release, everything spiked up against yen. why yen is so active at US data release while asian session is almost dead?
probably the SPX correlation. CNBC talks more about "the dollar yen" more than any other pair, as if its just a derivative of the S&P 500.

Whenever that correlation ends, I will be more inclined to trade it from a fundamental perspective. For now its just a barometer of risk appetite.... and now that the good data is actually here stocks and risk are probably going to have a crappy month. I wouldnt be long USDJPY.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #882,030
  • Mar 7, 2014 12:25pm Mar 7, 2014 12:25pm
Amazing USD comes back strong today. Friday.
  • #882,031
  • Mar 7, 2014 12:29pm Mar 7, 2014 12:29pm
All right guys, you have a good week end.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts and so on.

Gonna try to get my mojo back like it was, but that takes some time.
Back Monday.

TP
  • #882,032
  • Mar 7, 2014 12:34pm Mar 7, 2014 12:34pm
OMT isnt legal... and every good NFP is a step closer to that fact beoming painfully clear.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #882,033
  • Mar 7, 2014 12:34pm Mar 7, 2014 12:34pm
Quoting Citiboy
I am actually more interested in this for the EUR side of things. A very strong US economy will mean a faster reduction in QE and hiking of rates, the concept of a strong recovery is something that was almost written off as early as yesterday. Its hard to overstate the possible sentiment shift thats occurring here, people were saying NFP was going to be sub 100k and all... USD was getting blasted. Now the number is 175k, AND thats with twice as many people as usual in recent February months affected by weather. All this means that eventually the...
it's never so easy. When tapering started, people should have bought dollars massively but that didn't happen because of how US data was presented: ups and downs along the way to keep people worried enough. A strong US economy may also be seen as a good opportunity to take risks in less mature markets in a steadier world economy. Obvious consideration now is that EU has a lot of work to do and many countries have to make radical reforms to get back on track. I would say that there is a good chance that current valuation of EURUSD is quite high considering actual situation but then again I don't know how much & for how long current price is needed by US to restart the engine of its economy and how damaging is for the EU economy. FED and ECB will never let you know. All we can do is just to draw our conclusions and make assumptions.
  • #882,034
  • Mar 7, 2014 12:55pm Mar 7, 2014 12:55pm
all the markets are grand scheme of casinos designed for the main operators to make profit. If the main operators cannot make profit, some market wont exist. A shop making no profit will be closed. A supermarket making no profit will be out of business. The main operators have to make profit. Forget about economy and fundamentals. Forget about employment, unemployment, all data releases. The main operators have to make profit. People can starve, can die, but the main operators have to make profit.

EXON CEO does not want to build a water tower near his back yard, because it is going to lower his property value. Forget about the water tower is going to be used for the benefit of others.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #882,035
  • Mar 7, 2014 1:14pm Mar 7, 2014 1:14pm
the huge foreign currency reserve of China is US dollars and it is going to be worthless and China sees that. So China has to diversify. Yen is worthless too. What other major currency China can convert its US dollar into? That is euro.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #882,036
  • Mar 7, 2014 1:16pm Mar 7, 2014 1:16pm
Quoting ffleo
all the markets are grand scheme of casinos designed for the main operators to make profit. If the main operators cannot make profit, some market wont exist. A shop making no profit will be closed. A supermarket making no profit will be out of business. The main operators have to make profit. Forget about economy and fundamentals. Forget about employment, unemployment, all data releases. The main operators have to make profit. People can starve, can die, but the main operators have to make profit. EXON CEO does not want to build a water tower near...

The case is a bit more delicate.

Exon is also in the business of fracking.

The water tower in his backyard belongs to a fracking project.


LOL

But he keeps on insisting, that he is not against the fracking, only against the trucks keep coming and going to take the water
  • #882,037
  • Mar 7, 2014 1:42pm Mar 7, 2014 1:42pm
planning to long aussie again when it dips close to 9000.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GA- i7860-TDA_145.png Size: 182 KB
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #882,038
  • Edited 2:24pm Mar 7, 2014 2:05pm | Edited 2:24pm
Quoting ffleo
planning to long aussie again when it dips close to 9000. {image} {image}
AJ likely will see 95/96 again while UJ sees 103.8/104.3 after some retracement. That leads to aussie potential target 9150/9200 again. Buy aussie on dips near 9000.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AJ- id81_148.png Size: 50 KB
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #882,039
  • Mar 7, 2014 4:17pm Mar 7, 2014 4:17pm
Game over tradaz, enjoy the weekend.

Been a lousy week for me, made only 5 %, but better be a survivor than an underwater diver -
  • #882,040
  • Mar 7, 2014 4:23pm Mar 7, 2014 4:23pm
eurjpy, can it hold current levels seriously? a carry trade without a carry..
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