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EURUSD

  • #882,001
  • Mar 7, 2014 10:49am Mar 7, 2014 10:49am
dr copper is down smartly, a break under 2.99 will be 3yr lows..
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #882,002
  • Mar 7, 2014 11:08am Mar 7, 2014 11:08am
last time cable got above 1.7 was when equities began bouncing from many years low around 2003/2004. Now equities are at historical highs (except nikki at many years high), is it still likely for cable to go above 1.7?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #882,003
  • Mar 7, 2014 11:09am Mar 7, 2014 11:09am
Quoting dashlat
{image}
Beautiful example of a trade with proper money management shown. Pay attention folks... even this guys first target is > 1:1.
  • #882,004
  • Mar 7, 2014 11:10am Mar 7, 2014 11:10am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} give or take a few,, 3788 was/is important from earlier in the week pa, we usually would have gone back to it. i mentioned 3788 and 3766. both are now not in the current pa or are they? i dont know... i know there was the one target for 3840... now if one takes the low till 3788,, then doubles that move, its pretty close to the current high (3853). if this high remains, back to 3788 is common. 3824 has been on the chart posted for weeks with 3757 on it.. 3757 is the norm missed in jan,, 3757 x .5 next level is 3824,,, before today the high...
the algo continues... this penent flag also has 3788 as a target, its not a target till a break
Attached Image
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #882,005
  • Mar 7, 2014 11:11am Mar 7, 2014 11:11am
Quoting kuroro001
Today could be the day of a turn on everything...next couple of weeks will be the most interesting
EU/GU/AU/UJ D1

doesn't look like it to me tbh - small corrections at best
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  • #882,006
  • Mar 7, 2014 11:11am Mar 7, 2014 11:11am
On a side note... why does the euro get stuck so easily these days? Most likely indecision in the weekly chart... but damn this is annoying. It will be nice to get things ebbing and flowing again. Just about everything is easily out performing fibre. Cable and Aussie, as examples.
  • #882,007
  • Mar 7, 2014 11:20am Mar 7, 2014 11:20am
Quoting Venice
On a side note... why does the euro get stuck so easily these days? Most likely indecision in the weekly chart... but damn this is annoying. It will be nice to get things ebbing and flowing again. Just about everything is easily out performing fibre. Cable and Aussie, as examples.
because both euro and cable are entering major resistance zone. Cable around 1.7, euro around 1.39/1.4

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro - i7860-TDA_144.png Size: 565 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable - i7860-TDA_143.png Size: 361 KB
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #882,008
  • Mar 7, 2014 11:21am Mar 7, 2014 11:21am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} Once spx and dow begin their way of big correction down, everything will drop.
wen will that be we hav waited 2 long for it's rain.
  • #882,009
  • Mar 7, 2014 11:22am Mar 7, 2014 11:22am
Quoting Venice
On a side note... why does the euro get stuck so easily these days? Most likely indecision in the weekly chart... but damn this is annoying. It will be nice to get things ebbing and flowing again. Just about everything is easily out performing fibre. Cable and Aussie, as examples.
never mind all that V - is it opening time at your bar yet?
  • #882,010
  • Mar 7, 2014 11:23am Mar 7, 2014 11:23am
If a turn around was going to happen on NFP its not likely to be today. The questions being asked are the same things I asked myself on Wednesday...the data was bad and nothing happened. USD selling didn't really hit until thursday. The same thing is occurring here today maybe, the data was very good in comparison to yesterday's sentiment. The actual price movement however is muted, I just doubt anyone wants to take large positions before the weekend.

Lets see how it looks monday.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #882,011
  • Mar 7, 2014 11:27am Mar 7, 2014 11:27am
Quoting chazzle
{quote} never mind all that V - is it opening time at your bar yet?
Very much so... It's past noon.
  • #882,012
  • Mar 7, 2014 11:29am Mar 7, 2014 11:29am
Quoting Venice
{quote} Very much so... It's past noon.
nice - PTL's buying
  • #882,013
  • Mar 7, 2014 11:34am Mar 7, 2014 11:34am
Quoting Citiboy
If a turn around was going to happen on NFP its not likely to be today. The questions being asked are the same things I asked myself on Wednesday...the data was bad and nothing happened. USD selling didn't really hit until thursday. The same thing is occurring here today maybe, the data was very good in comparison to yesterday's sentiment. The actual price movement however is muted, I just doubt anyone wants to take large positions before the weekend. Lets see how it looks monday.
so you intending there will be a price gap down for EU?
Loosening is not an option
  • #882,014
  • Mar 7, 2014 11:38am Mar 7, 2014 11:38am
Quoting Vilkas
{quote} so you intending there will be a price gap down for EU?
No. I doubt there will be a price gap, unless Ukraine defaults on this 2bn payment that just got called in.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #882,015
  • Mar 7, 2014 11:40am Mar 7, 2014 11:40am
Quoting Citiboy
If a turn around was going to happen on NFP its not likely to be today. The questions being asked are the same things I asked myself on Wednesday...the data was bad and nothing happened. USD selling didn't really hit until thursday. The same thing is occurring here today maybe, the data was very good in comparison to yesterday's sentiment. The actual price movement however is muted, I just doubt anyone wants to take large positions before the weekend. Lets see how it looks monday.
tons of positions have been acquired for cable in last 3 weeks. Just need to know which way it will go.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #882,016
  • Mar 7, 2014 11:42am Mar 7, 2014 11:42am
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} No. I doubt there will be a price gap, unless Ukraine defaults on this 2bn payment that just got called in.

well there is another part about Ukraine and its finance system, gazprom wants money, US is willing to give money and maybe EU will give some, but when and what conditions?
Loosening is not an option
  • #882,017
  • Mar 7, 2014 11:44am Mar 7, 2014 11:44am
Quoting Citiboy
If a turn around was going to happen on NFP its not likely to be today. The questions being asked are the same things I asked myself on Wednesday...the data was bad and nothing happened. USD selling didn't really hit until thursday. The same thing is occurring here today maybe, the data was very good in comparison to yesterday's sentiment. The actual price movement however is muted, I just doubt anyone wants to take large positions before the weekend. Lets see how it looks monday.
US data was very good today. More people employed and unemployed coming back to the market as if general confidence is improving. Whoever interprets the increase in the overall number of unemployed people as a bad number is an idiot. Whether this will have an impact this coming week I don't know. I limit myself to notice a bullish chart. Not a good time to make any decision as there's a chance of a good rejection at these heights. Any longs must have a very well defined stoploss.
  • #882,018
  • Mar 7, 2014 11:44am Mar 7, 2014 11:44am
next week pivot says hello to me.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #882,019
  • Mar 7, 2014 11:48am Mar 7, 2014 11:48am
Quoting Venice
{quote} Very much so... It's past noon.
bastard..



Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #882,020
  • Mar 7, 2014 11:53am Mar 7, 2014 11:53am
I am actually more interested in this for the EUR side of things. A very strong US economy will mean a faster reduction in QE and hiking of rates, the concept of a strong recovery is something that was almost written off as early as yesterday. Its hard to overstate the possible sentiment shift thats occurring here, people were saying NFP was going to be sub 100k and all... USD was getting blasted. Now the number is 175k, AND thats with twice as many people as usual in recent February months affected by weather.


All this means that eventually the US will see more attractive rates and it makes less sense to invest abroad. Pulling back of overseas investments already happened with Australia, EM, Canada and China a little bit last week. The last 'victim' here is the European periphery. Once the outflows from Europe begin, the trend will become apparent. Draghi is sitting on his hands because 0.8% inflation is a mosquito bite.Much higher US rates washing out the inflows into the periphery bond and equity markets is a MASSIVE problem that will need all the bullets hes got.

The main threat to European stability, is a huge rise in US rates. Draghi only wants to fire his bazooka if he absolutely has to, and a deteriorating bond market is a much more dramatic problem than 0.8% inflation.

Given where we are, I dont think EURUSD can go far above 1.42. I will trade with that idea in mind.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
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