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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #72,081
  • Mar 4, 2014 7:27am Mar 4, 2014 7:27am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} what are your views on gold?
Gold will follow the commodity currencies... or vice versa. Not sure which really leads. LOL
Anyway, I am bearish the Aussie (but not for too much longer) and CAD.
Therefore for now I am bearish gold, but I do believe the cycle will come to an end before it reaches $900
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #72,082
  • Mar 4, 2014 7:40am Mar 4, 2014 7:40am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Gold will follow the commodity currencies... or vice versa. Not sure which really leads. LOL Anyway, I am bearish the Aussie (but not for too much longer) and CAD. Therefore for now I am bearish gold, but I do believe the cycle will come to an end before it reaches $900

$900 is a long ways away friend!

what do you make of the analysts calling for 1.2 on CAD?

my time pivots suggested a weekly top in early feb, next pivot is coming soon (link)
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #72,083
  • Mar 4, 2014 1:53pm Mar 4, 2014 1:53pm
Quoting theDHT
{quote} $900 is a long ways away friend! what do you make of the analysts calling for 1.2 on CAD? my time pivots suggested a weekly top in early feb, next pivot is coming soon (link)
1.2 CAD is quite probable, but I don't think it will happen until Q3 or Q4. at the earliest. Possible even next year before we see those levels.

Re: $900 on gold. Yes, it is a long way away, but I'm not suggesting it will be reached. I'm just saying that the cycle should end before then. Of course it all depends on the time frame in which you analyze.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #72,084
  • Edited 2:52pm Mar 4, 2014 2:37pm | Edited 2:52pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} 1.2 CAD is quite probable, but I don't think it will happen until Q3 or Q4. at the earliest. Possible even next year before we see those levels. Re: $900 on gold. Yes, it is a long way away, but I'm not suggesting it will be reached. I'm just saying that the cycle should end before then. Of course it all depends on the time frame in which you analyze.
Im struggling to be an bull on equities and commodities at the same time...

i put up a weekly chart for crude oil (here)... my assessment is not bullish;

regarding $900 on gold, I am still in the camp that see's gold down to the $1050 level this year (maybe even by summer) before a meaningful end to this bear market...

this fits my overall thesis for 2014: long developed/consumer markets, short/flat commodity and emerging markets

oh yea, overweight Japan soon!! (not kidding)
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #72,085
  • Mar 4, 2014 9:43pm Mar 4, 2014 9:43pm
Quoting theDHT
{quote} $900 is a long ways away friend! what do you make of the analysts calling for 1.2 on CAD? my time pivots suggested a weekly top in early feb, next pivot is coming soon (link)
UCAD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcadmonthly34.jpg Size: 199 KB
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #72,086
  • Mar 5, 2014 12:03am Mar 5, 2014 12:03am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} UCAD {image}
if Im reading your pattern correctly, your chart suggests a time target of mid 2015, is that correct?
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #72,087
  • Mar 5, 2014 7:28am Mar 5, 2014 7:28am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} if Im reading your pattern correctly, your chart suggests a time target of mid 2015, is that correct?
Hi DHT,

I only ideally look for symmetry and levels. But although I appreciate the timing charts you provide, the levels are more important to me.

So could you extrapolate the symmetry to get the timing? Sure, but it does not have to.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #72,088
  • Mar 5, 2014 7:48am Mar 5, 2014 7:48am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Hi DHT, I only ideally look for symmetry and levels. But although I appreciate the timing charts you provide, the levels are more important to me. So could you extrapolate the symmetry to get the timing? Sure, but it does not have to.
understood

seems like you, PT, and myself are on the same page regarding the general direction of this pair, which is good to know...

or maybe its a confirmation bias...

cheers
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #72,089
  • Mar 5, 2014 11:46am Mar 5, 2014 11:46am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Hi DHT, I only ideally look for symmetry and levels. But although I appreciate the timing charts you provide, the levels are more important to me. So could you extrapolate the symmetry to get the timing? Sure, but it does not have to.
Quoting theDHT
{quote} understood seems like you, PT, and myself are on the same page regarding the general direction of this pair, which is good to know... or maybe its a confirmation bias... cheers
I am not looking at CAD strictly to determine its direction and projected level. I am also looking at it from a correlation POV.
As I mentioned in a prior post, I am bearish commodities and commodity currencies as they are all basically the same trade. (AUD, CAD, Gold, Silver & Copper). All underperformers for the next little while as I also expect USD strength to play out later this year when the reality (or at least the perception) of the end of QE starts to hit home.

I have always (and will continue) maintained that USD will lead the way to global recovery and I have not seen anything yet to dissuade me from that opinion.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #72,090
  • Mar 5, 2014 11:54am Mar 5, 2014 11:54am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} {quote} I am not looking at CAD strictly to determine its direction and projected level. I am also looking at it from a correlation POV. As I mentioned in a prior post, I am bearish commodities and commodity currencies as they are all basically the same trade. (AUD, CAD, Gold, Silver & Copper). All underperformers for the next little while as I also expect USD strength to play out later this year when the reality (or at least the perception) of the end of QE starts to hit home.
the CEO of BHP Biliton was on CNBC from the IHS conference in Houston yesterday, he said:

"the commodity super cycle has been over for a few years now", he was especially bearish on iron ore due to massive supply side build outs in recent years, plus the rate of consumption in China hitting a steady state...

add to this US shale oil/gas, and Iran potentially coming back on stream...

and you have a pretty clean case; it speaks clearly to the direction of related economies going forward a few years...
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #72,091
  • Mar 5, 2014 2:21pm Mar 5, 2014 2:21pm
Quoting theDHT
{quote} the CEO of BHP Biliton was on CNBC from the IHS conference in Houston yesterday, he said: "the commodity super cycle has been over for a few years now", he was especially bearish on iron ore due to massive supply side build outs in recent years, plus the rate of consumption in China hitting a steady state... add to this US shale oil/gas, and Iran potentially coming back on stream... and you have a pretty clean case; it speaks clearly to the direction of related economies going forward a few years...
I agree with the CEO (and your additions). Mind you one could argue that the reasons he gave (and those you added) are only the tip of the iceberg and that the biggest share of the blame (or cause) for the commodity bust is its intrinsic cyclical nature. Every market has one and when it comes to reversal time, the distance travelled in the other direction is invariably at least 50 to 60% (correction) before any hopes of a revival. We're not even close yet.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #72,092
  • Mar 5, 2014 7:25pm Mar 5, 2014 7:25pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Gold will follow the commodity currencies... or vice versa. Not sure which really leads. LOL Anyway, I am bearish the Aussie (but not for too much longer) and CAD. Therefore for now I am bearish gold, but I do believe the cycle will come to an end before it reaches $900
Hi PipTrapper,
That's an interesting comment. I'm trading gold and my sentiment is bearish although recent price action is raising questions.
However, do you think it could get close to $900?
I read in the XAU/USD & XAG/USD forum that the cost price of gold is $1200. True or false I don't know.
  • #72,093
  • Mar 5, 2014 7:32pm Mar 5, 2014 7:32pm
Quoting Uglybug
{quote} Hi PipTrapper, That's an interesting comment. I'm trading gold and my sentiment is bearish although recent price action is raising questions. However, do you think it could get close to $900? I read in the XAU/USD & XAG/USD forum that the cost price of gold is $1200. True or false I don't know.
yes the cost of producing gold is about $1200...
as reason why 1180 has been the low of 2013 and 2014
but it doesn't mean that sub $1000 can not be achieved specially if USD is very strong and world economy seems to be moving strong.
remember before the 2007 crisis gold was about $650-$800...

thanks,
G
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #72,094
  • Edited 8:44pm Mar 5, 2014 8:28pm | Edited 8:44pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} {quote} I am not looking at CAD strictly to determine its direction and projected level. I am also looking at it from a correlation POV. As I mentioned in a prior post, I am bearish commodities and commodity currencies as they are all basically the same trade. (AUD, CAD, Gold, Silver & Copper). All underperformers for the next little while as I also expect USD strength to play out later this year when the reality (or at least the perception) of the end of QE starts to hit home. I have always (and will continue) maintained that USD will lead...
Hi PipTrapper,

Would you consider NZD dollar also, as one of the commodity currencies alongside CAD and AUD or does it fall out of that sphere and thus, would most likely, escape the underperformance that AUD and CAD are facing in the very near future ?

Thanks for guidance.
  • #72,095
  • Mar 6, 2014 7:40am Mar 6, 2014 7:40am
Quoting Uglybug
{quote} Hi PipTrapper, That's an interesting comment. I'm trading gold and my sentiment is bearish although recent price action is raising questions. However, do you think it could get close to $900? I read in the XAU/USD & XAG/USD forum that the cost price of gold is $1200. True or false I don't know.
Quoting gnomoneey
{quote} yes the cost of producing gold is about $1200... as reason why 1180 has been the low of 2013 and 2014 but it doesn't mean that sub $1000 can not be achieved specially if USD is very strong and world economy seems to be moving strong. remember before the 2007 crisis gold was about $650-$800... thanks, G
My sentiments exactly Gno
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #72,096
  • Mar 6, 2014 7:42am Mar 6, 2014 7:42am
Quoting minortrader
{quote} Hi PipTrapper, Would you consider NZD dollar also, as one of the commodity currencies alongside CAD and AUD or does it fall out of that sphere and thus, would most likely, escape the underperformance that AUD and CAD are facing in the very near future ? Thanks for guidance.
The Kiwi economy is based more on soft commodities. Mostly food.
Therefore, since the world population is growing and producing a constant demand for food, the Kiwi will not suffer the same fate as the AUD and CAD. However, when USD strength comes raging back (probably sometime in mid to late 2014), the Kiwi will be sure to take a hit.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #72,097
  • Mar 6, 2014 7:44am Mar 6, 2014 7:44am
Looks like Draghi is not as dovish as the market anticipated.
This guy obviously doesn't give a hoot about a strong Euro... most likely because he already knows that the Euro will be tenderized once the Fed all but eliminates QE.
1.4x, here we come.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #72,098
  • Mar 6, 2014 7:56am Mar 6, 2014 7:56am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} The Kiwi economy is based more on soft commodities. Mostly food. Therefore, since the world population is growing and producing a constant demand for food, the Kiwi will not suffer the same fate as the AUD and CAD. However, when USD strength comes raging back (probably sometime in mid to late 2014), the Kiwi will be sure to take a hit.
Thanks. This surely makes sense.
  • #72,099
  • Mar 6, 2014 8:21am Mar 6, 2014 8:21am
Quoting PipTrapper
Looks like Draghi is not as dovish as the market anticipated. This guy obviously doesn't give a hoot about a strong Euro... most likely because he already knows that the Euro will be tenderized once the Fed all but eliminates QE. 1.4x, here we come.
Hi PT - I trust you are well - I still can't get used to seeing you in the Bull's Camp! € just hit its October 2013 high and with that, €J and GJ I've banked nice intra day pips and will now wait for a retrace to get back on the North Bound Express....

Best

Islander
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #72,100
  • Mar 6, 2014 8:45am Mar 6, 2014 8:45am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} The Kiwi economy is based more on soft commodities. Mostly food. Therefore, since the world population is growing and producing a constant demand for food, the Kiwi will not suffer the same fate as the AUD and CAD. However, when USD strength comes raging back (probably sometime in mid to late 2014), the Kiwi will be sure to take a hit.
Hi PT,

Also expectations are RBNZ starts hiking next week, AUD and CAD expectation were for more easing, although those have been somewhat diminished as of late, though Stevens is apparently still not happy with exchange rate but it reticent to ease due to inflation and housing.

Couple of kiwi charts:

Quoting Mr. Scott
Kiwi: {image} {image}
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
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