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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #43,761
  • Mar 5, 2014 3:32pm Mar 5, 2014 3:32pm
Oh great it feels wonderful to be part of the short crowd. I feel like a canned sardine.
  • #43,762
  • Mar 5, 2014 5:05pm Mar 5, 2014 5:05pm
finally I was long with 0.15 lots and this bullish spike taken me off with my tp with 15€
  • #43,763
  • Mar 5, 2014 6:10pm Mar 5, 2014 6:10pm
Putting on some large size shorts here at 102.50, SL at 102.70. TP 100.00 Given the recent ramp higher, the data out today was not encouraging at all. I am starting to get concerned that maybe the slowness in jobs isnt all weather related. The ISM services employment index fell off a cliff, that cant be good.

I like the technical set up
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  • #43,764
  • Mar 5, 2014 6:12pm Mar 5, 2014 6:12pm
Quoting Citiboy
Putting on some large size shorts here at 102.50, SL at 102.70. TP 100.00 Given the recent ramp higher, the data out today was not encouraging at all. I am starting to get concerned that maybe the slowness in jobs isnt all weather related. The ISM services employment index fell off a cliff, that cant be good. I like the technical set up {image}
Hi Citiboy,

this is a 4H chart ¿?

best ...
  • #43,765
  • Mar 5, 2014 6:15pm Mar 5, 2014 6:15pm
Quoting caguilar
{quote} Hi Citiboy, this is a 4H chart ¿? best ...

Yes its a 4hr graph.
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  • #43,766
  • Mar 5, 2014 6:26pm Mar 5, 2014 6:26pm
Quoting Citiboy
Putting on some large size shorts here at 102.50, SL at 102.70. TP 100.00 Given the recent ramp higher, the data out today was not encouraging at all. I am starting to get concerned that maybe the slowness in jobs isnt all weather related. The ISM services employment index fell off a cliff, that cant be good. I like the technical set up {image}
a lot of analysts have been supporting this view recently. with all the news outlets attributing the soft data to the weather quite a few people are now questioning the reliability of this correlation.
only point worth raising is that the broad consensus is for a weak print and it looks to me like this is already factored in. if the number surprises to the upside (ADP figures are historically a pretty poor guide to actual NFP) it will cause a bigger spike than a weak print.
  • #43,767
  • Mar 5, 2014 7:32pm Mar 5, 2014 7:32pm
Quoting Judge Dent
{quote} a lot of analysts have been supporting this view recently. with all the news outlets attributing the soft data to the weather quite a few people are now questioning the reliability of this correlation. only point worth raising is that the broad consensus is for a weak print and it looks to me like this is already factored in. if the number surprises to the upside (ADP figures are historically a pretty poor guide to actual NFP) it will cause a bigger spike than a weak print.

Interesting point... consensus is the slow down was weather related... and the market expects a bad number friday. I guess the question is, when does the weather related benefit of the doubt end? And if it were weather related why is the ISM employment index down so much? Even if the weather was that bad, it some parts of the country, how could a national index drop by that much if the economy was as strong as everyone thinks.

My main thought here is Obamacare. Late last year I did alot of reading up on the hiring effects. Lots of workers in the service industry had their hours reduced to just below 35 a week so that employees could avoid offering healthcare. So people saw less hours, and businesses hired more part time employees to make up for it. Obamacare started on the first of the year, and this reasoning would explain the sudden boost in hiring in Q4... Now that all that part time hiring is completed, hiring reverts back to the prior trend of mediocre. If this theory is correct, hiring wont go back to how it was late last year.
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  • #43,768
  • Mar 5, 2014 7:48pm Mar 5, 2014 7:48pm
this was from DB this morning

http://www.orderflowtrading.com/Fore...-FX-Daily.aspx

and have seem similar concerns from other banks / brokers like Credit Suisse about attributing everything to the weather.

i think your point about part time work is pretty valid alongside looking at the participation rate. seems like a lot of older people
may of just opted out altogether which drops unemployment but is a false measure.
doesn't seem like it will stop tapering but it may push any interest rate tightening further down the line.

i am pretty neutral this pair around these levels as it look middle range to me. think i would stick to range trading this pair, selling round 105 and buying near parity.
  • #43,769
  • Mar 5, 2014 8:02pm Mar 5, 2014 8:02pm
Pretty much every yen cross, has key levels just above current price. Would be nice if we could run stops higher, and USDJPY get close to 103 for a sell.
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  • #43,770
  • Mar 5, 2014 8:36pm Mar 5, 2014 8:36pm
not the right thread but i am interested in aud/jpy around here
  • #43,771
  • Mar 5, 2014 9:13pm Mar 5, 2014 9:13pm
Quoting Judge Dent
not the right thread but i am interested in aud/jpy around here
YEN has been tricky last few weeks,as traders talking US/JPY 103 then 100.5 etc


If you want a pair to trade look GBP/NZ

Try a pending long below were it is now

Its come from 2.04

we all waiting for ride back up

Got a pending 1.975 to 2.05.
  • #43,772
  • Mar 5, 2014 9:20pm Mar 5, 2014 9:20pm
thanks will have a peek.

cable has been on a real tear, never look at nzd crosses that much to be honest.
  • #43,773
  • Mar 5, 2014 9:24pm Mar 5, 2014 9:24pm
does look like a good trade, bid offer spread on IG is really wide though
  • #43,774
  • Mar 5, 2014 9:42pm Mar 5, 2014 9:42pm
looks good
  • #43,775
  • Mar 5, 2014 11:40pm Mar 5, 2014 11:40pm
so close to february's high~
  • #43,776
  • Mar 6, 2014 12:27am Mar 6, 2014 12:27am
What i m thinking is it's time to hit 103.00 bz Bull is looking very aggressive.
  • #43,777
  • Mar 6, 2014 1:11am Mar 6, 2014 1:11am
chanced a short @ 102,77 paying @ 103
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #43,778
  • Mar 6, 2014 2:09am Mar 6, 2014 2:09am
Quoting USD-Bear
chanced a short @ 102,77 paying @ 103
stop @ BE
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #43,779
  • Mar 6, 2014 2:34am Mar 6, 2014 2:34am
Good chances of touching 102,4
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The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #43,780
  • Mar 6, 2014 2:44am Mar 6, 2014 2:44am
me thinks there is some support near 102.42/48...
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