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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #43,741
  • Mar 4, 2014 5:47am Mar 4, 2014 5:47am
cnn still broadcast ukraine situation.. i have no idea.. the heat still high.. anything can happen right now im rather short for now..
the true currencies here is patience and react precisely
  • #43,742
  • Mar 4, 2014 6:45am Mar 4, 2014 6:45am
Nothing will happen. Russians are now threatening America with economic reprisals.
The new Ukrainian leader will probably be assassinated and then there will be new elections.
....or maybe something else...

Posturing from all parties will continue for now.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #43,743
  • Mar 4, 2014 8:29am Mar 4, 2014 8:29am
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...bank-says.html

Regulatory investigations of alleged currency-market collusion are probably contributing to a slump in volatility in major foreign-exchange markets [...] The probes, together with limits on speculative trading in the wake of the global financial crisis, may be damping market reactions to events such as the geopolitical tension in Ukraine [...] “The uncovering of alleged improper conduct, with respect to currency fixes, could have left dealers scared of their own shadow,” “A big question is whether this weight of legislation, moral suasion and fines has the market running scared, with banks, in particular, either unable or unwilling to respond to shock events with the same gusto.” [...] Currency traders are struggling to make money amid subdued price swings and trends in developed markets, with Deutsche Bank AG’s Currency Returns Index sliding 0.3 percent this year. The euro has never started the year in a tighter trading range versus the dollar than it did in the past two months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Sad but true, something like this 5 years ago would have seen a few hundred pips, not 50 either way.

Thoughts?
  • #43,744
  • Mar 4, 2014 8:37am Mar 4, 2014 8:37am
Quoting turny
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...bank-says.html Regulatory investigations of alleged currency-market collusion are probably contributing to a slump in volatility in major foreign-exchange markets [...] The probes, together with limits on speculative trading in the wake of the global financial crisis, may be damping market reactions to events such as the geopolitical tension in Ukraine [...] “The uncovering of alleged improper conduct, with respect to currency fixes, could have...
I have been thinking that for a while now. Pining for the big swing days of yesteryear.
  • #43,745
  • Mar 4, 2014 9:08am Mar 4, 2014 9:08am
Is there some kind of "fundamental AND technical logic" thread pn the overall market? Because for the life of me i dont see how ppl thought jpy would be the sole beneficiary of a flight to safety. Also no one factored in that yen has had much strength since the year began. I mean yen came back HARD on jan. 1st!...did everyone forget. by my logic it was unjustified strength that had to revert. Also the NEWS....have u guys ever thought that maybe some big wig bankers call in favors to the 3 major news groups and tell them to spam us with a certain market view? Finance has the most pull when it cums to how the world works. Including polotics. (Maybe to make money, or save big lossing positions???) I have seen news propogate a view 'including investing news" that is fundamentally flawed. And the markets still buy into it...

Apologies for any typos i am usually on my android phone...

Please someone is there such a thread? Or website? Or maybe just some of you know. Thanks point me to that place.
  • #43,746
  • Mar 4, 2014 9:46am Mar 4, 2014 9:46am
Quoting BDardenTrade
Is there some kind of "fundamental AND technical logic" thread pn the overall market? Because for the life of me i dont see how ppl thought jpy would be the sole beneficiary of a flight to safety. Also no one factored in that yen has had much strength since the year began. I mean yen came back HARD on jan. 1st!...did everyone forget. by my logic it was unjustified strength that had to revert. Also the NEWS....have u guys ever thought that maybe some big wig bankers call in favors to the 3 major news groups and tell them to spam us with a certain...
If you browse the trading discussion pages I am sure you will find something useful.

No reason for the Yen to be sole beneficiary of a flight to safety, however please remember that a lot of members do not understand the political interactions in the currency markets, including me sometimes. So a flight to safety has in the past has strengthened the Yen considerably. I appreciate that in this instance with the Ukraine the flight to safety is headed also for Switzerland, the US$ and gold: just look at the charts.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #43,747
  • Mar 4, 2014 5:17pm Mar 4, 2014 5:17pm
Hi Guys,

I'm expecting for the Tokio session, the market is now into a consolidation movement, so I think after the consolidation the market could up to 102.466 o can go down to 101.820.

which is your analysis for this scenario ¿?

thanks and sorry for my poor english

Carlos
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  • #43,748
  • Mar 4, 2014 5:33pm Mar 4, 2014 5:33pm
Quoting caguilar
Hi Guys, I'm expecting for the Tokio session, the market is now into a consolidation movement, so I think after the consolidation the market could up to 102.466 o can go down to 101.820. which is your analysis for this scenario ¿? thanks and sorry for my poor english Carlos {image}
i hope price will go down, i have 3 short positions now
  • #43,749
  • Mar 4, 2014 7:50pm Mar 4, 2014 7:50pm
Quoting BDardenTrade
Is there some kind of "fundamental AND technical logic" thread pn the overall market? Because for the life of me i dont see how ppl thought jpy would be the sole beneficiary of a flight to safety. ,,,,,, Or maybe just some of you know.
//-----

not sure if a "fundamental AND technical logic" thread exists.....

in a risk off move to currencies situation, the yen will gain the most against other currencies with the usd a close second..... aud, nzd, cad and such usually move the opposite.... the eur chf peg hobbles the chf now days........

the yen is thought to gain the most because japan holds so much usd debt...... it improves not only in it's on right but receives partial perceived value of it's usd holding's increase in value.....

if all hell breaks loose, japan could repatriate by selling those usd holdings which would weaken the usd and strengthen the yen even more....... banks and large specs know this...... and the usdjpy moves accordingly......h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #43,750
  • Mar 4, 2014 7:55pm Mar 4, 2014 7:55pm
Quoting zoolc
{quote} i hope price will go down, i have 3 short positions now
Hi zoolc,

i'm short right now too ... the candlestick crossed my support and I oppened a short position

best regards,

carlos.
  • #43,751
  • Mar 4, 2014 8:19pm Mar 4, 2014 8:19pm
Of course this thing is going down.
  • #43,752
  • Mar 4, 2014 9:06pm Mar 4, 2014 9:06pm
Or maybe not!
  • #43,753
  • Mar 4, 2014 9:08pm Mar 4, 2014 9:08pm
Quoting mazurskilos
Or maybe not!
I closed my short ...
  • #43,754
  • Mar 5, 2014 12:35am Mar 5, 2014 12:35am
Quoting caguilar
{quote} I closed my short ...
i still hold my short
  • #43,755
  • Mar 5, 2014 12:48am Mar 5, 2014 12:48am
Quoting zoolc
{quote} i still hold my short
may i know which TF are you in?
  • #43,756
  • Mar 5, 2014 12:57am Mar 5, 2014 12:57am
Quoting jimmyboy88
{quote} may i know which TF are you in?
h1 for entry/exit h4 for major trend
  • #43,757
  • Mar 5, 2014 6:59am Mar 5, 2014 6:59am
Feel like everyone has been short.... Now it is time for me to do so, against the rule, before the news launch...
  • #43,758
  • Mar 5, 2014 11:12am Mar 5, 2014 11:12am
I see we still have't made it back up to 104.63 was it?

Short
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  • #43,759
  • Mar 5, 2014 2:50pm Mar 5, 2014 2:50pm
  •  Owl
  • | Joined Dec 2012 | Status: FX Siphoner Of Symphonies | 435 Posts
Quoting zoolc
{quote} i still hold my short
Yup it doesn't look to be coming up anytime soon ...........

Can't wait to see what this asian session do to it I'm already

30 pips in profit ............The 45 tick per bar chart shows the

resistance and what to anticipate nicely over the renko and

range charts if you ask me lets see how low can this baby go though!!.............
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One Must Use A Noble Rapier To Pierce The Veil Of Mystery
  • #43,760
  • Mar 5, 2014 4:36pm Mar 5, 2014 4:36pm
Hi guys,

i'm short right now in USD/JPY,

I saw a descending triangle and projected my tp in +-102.68

are you still short for this instrument ¿?

best regards
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