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  • #66,621
  • Mar 3, 2014 9:15pm Mar 3, 2014 9:15pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} jasakreatif, Your original call on this was correct. Nice. I apologize for questioning you on it. I held out for more volume at another group of lows, and to see that the Dragon did not fall down. It did not, and this looks to be gaining more and more strength for a good run up. Again, nice call, jasakreatif. -tah {image} {image} {image}
no need to apologize Sir , its all your classic stuff http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...4792&page=1500

let see how the pinbar working

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  • #66,622
  • Mar 3, 2014 10:03pm Mar 3, 2014 10:03pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} GU Long Trade Update: Added longs #12-13, Scouts, as MMs whacked the price below the half number. {image}
I would have long GU in normal circumstances, but I do have concern on the development of the Ukraine war. Like in the past, when a war escalates, it would mean most traders will buy safe haven currencies (risk off), and when there is a resolution to this conflict, it will be risk on.

And do take note that UK has a big influence on this war, because of the Budapest Memorandum signed in 1994, where, the Ukraine agreed to give up its arsenal of nuclear weapons in exchange for "security assurances" from the U.S. and U.K.

Sorry, I realize that all the above is fundamental. The main reason I wrote this, is hoping that all traders here don't over commit with too many trades at this time, as war can cause a lot of volatility and big move. Pls do guard against margin call!
  • #66,623
  • Mar 3, 2014 10:09pm Mar 3, 2014 10:09pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} AU Long Trade Update: Added long #3, Scout on retrace. {image}
Did MM's not get enough shorts to pillage or did i miss my opportunity to clear out of AU?
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  • #66,624
  • Edited 11:24pm Mar 3, 2014 10:37pm | Edited 11:24pm
Quoting Avenger999
{quote} I would have long GU in normal circumstances, but I do have concern on the development of the Ukraine war. Like in the past, when a war escalates, it would mean most traders will buy safe haven currencies (risk off), and when there is a resolution to this conflict, it will be risk on. And do take note that UK has a big influence on this war, because of the Budapest Memorandum signed in 1994, where, the Ukraine agreed to give up its arsenal of nuclear weapons in exchange for "security assurances" from the U.S. and U.K. Sorry, I realize that...
What Decides Prices, Fundamentals or the Market Maker's Plans for Profits?

Fundamentals or no fundamentals, we simply cannot know how price will move next. And this is because the Market Makers control price movement and move prices to assure they are profitable, not to assure that the prices move in a way sensible to fundamentals. In fact, they might move prices contrary to fundamentals to achieve profits. There is no direct connection between price movement and fundamentals. There is direct connection between price movement and the Market Maker's plans for profits. The sooner traders come to accept that fact of life in the markets, the better off they will be.

Therefore, it is ultimately the chart of what you are trading that should be the point of focus. Nothing else.

In the case of GU, the sudden move down in the latter part of the US session was a dead give-away. Fast price moves down like that are rarely the result of genuine selling. If it were genuine selling then everyone, including the Market Makers, would be selling as much as possible for as long as possible at the highest prices possible. There certainly would not be a rush to achieve low prices, using the "off hours" of the market to do so, as was the case here. No. This was nothing more than Market Maker price manipulation to lower the price quickly, waiting for a time when it would be easiest to do so. That is a PVSRA indication they are bulls and they are accumulating long orders. And "So what?" if the Market Makers are doing something contrary to new fundamentals? I repeat. So what?

The markets are businesses run by Market Makers for profits. They have no obligations or allegiance to fundamentals or technicals, only to their own profits. Yes, at times certain fundamentals can influence prices in the market, can influence where big banks, etc. place their buy and sell orders. Nevertheless, it is ultimately the purvey of the Market Makers when and just how prices will change in order to match buying and selling orders.

-tah
  • #66,625
  • Edited Mar 4, 2014 12:11am Mar 3, 2014 11:10pm | Edited Mar 4, 2014 12:11am
Quoting eaymon
{quote} Did MM's not get enough shorts to pillage or did i miss my opportunity to clear out of AU?
PVSRA: AU, Bull or Bear?

Looks like I missed an opportunity to add long at the lows the Market Makers created with their neatly executed five minute whipsaw maneuver.

Note that the maneuver ended on the down side. This is an important clue. The MMs left the maneuver at the lows because it is the lower prices the MMs are interested in for a while longer. It is a PVSRA indication the MMs are bulls and are accumulating long orders. And from the M1 chart, we can see that the MMs did indeed take good advantage of the lowest prices to do just that!

Also note the initial spike upwards. Here is where the MMs triggered pending long orders into the market, to get more money into the market so the MMs could later steal it! Then came the drive down, where the stealing took place as new longs were promptly stopped out!

It was a "Stealing Fest" by Bull Market Makers!

-tah
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PS: .......sometime later, here's the proof! The MMs suddenly go on a concentrated buying spree, taking the price higher (which they might reset low again).
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  • #66,626
  • Mar 4, 2014 12:09am Mar 4, 2014 12:09am
EJ: TP triggered @ 1.4010. Should have set it near RDH.. anyways, 50pips in...
  • #66,627
  • Mar 4, 2014 12:12am Mar 4, 2014 12:12am
GU: first EP@ 1.6658, TP set to 1.6735. waiting for a long GREEN price bar.
  • #66,628
  • Mar 4, 2014 12:26am Mar 4, 2014 12:26am
tah, taking reference from AU I would like to ask if the way to differentiate whether MMs are on a buying spree resulting in a price push-up or that they are coveting longs would be to look at the aftermath to see if they allow the price to remain high or they quickly pull it back down low?

I was slightly confused because both of the peaks in volumes were when price breached the 0.8950 half number level.
  • #66,629
  • Mar 4, 2014 12:28am Mar 4, 2014 12:28am
Quoting eaymon
{quote} Did MM's not get enough shorts to pillage or did i miss my opportunity to clear out of AU?

Quoting traderathome
{quote} PVSRA: AU, Bull or Bear? Looks like I missed an opportunity to add long at the lows the Market Makers created with their neatly executed five minute whipsaw maneuver. Note that the maneuver ended on the down side. This is an important clue. The MMs left the maneuver at the lows because it is the lower prices the MMs are interested in for a while longer. It is a PVSRA indication the MMs are bulls and are accumulating long orders. And from the M1 chart, we can see that the MMs did indeed take good advantage of the lowest prices to do just...
My guess is that AU is going to visit 0.8850 and also 0.9000

Which comes first? I don't know, but I'm guessing that first we go down. That's why I partially closed my long position and shorted twice. I'm planning to add more longs again with better price
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I know the secret...
  • #66,630
  • Mar 4, 2014 12:28am Mar 4, 2014 12:28am
Quoting Avenger999
{quote} I would have long GU in normal circumstances, but I do have concern on the development of the Ukraine war. Like in the past, when a war escalates, it would mean most traders will buy safe haven currencies (risk off), and when there is a resolution to this conflict, it will be risk on. And do take note that UK has a big influence on this war, because of the Budapest Memorandum signed in 1994, where, the Ukraine agreed to give up its arsenal of nuclear weapons in exchange for "security assurances" from the U.S. and U.K. Sorry, I realize that...
Not everything is black or white. There is gray. The price movement is led by the big players in the market.
I am in favor of technical analysis, bearing in mind the pitfalls that make us the most powerful in search of liquidity. But also attend to the news though, today, seems to only serve as an excuse to move move the price no matter which direction.
Humble opinion.
Adaptarse es la clave
  • #66,631
  • Mar 4, 2014 12:31am Mar 4, 2014 12:31am
Quoting JRissa
{quote} {quote} My guess is that AU is going to visit 0.8850 and also 0.9000 Which comes first? I don't know, but I'm guessing that first we go down. That's why I partially closed my long position and shorted twice. I'm planning to add more longs again with better price {image} {image}
Greetings JRissa. Yesterday, I missed you, jeje..
Adaptarse es la clave
  • #66,632
  • Mar 4, 2014 12:33am Mar 4, 2014 12:33am
UJ

Short scout #1 entered
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I know the secret...
  • #66,633
  • Mar 4, 2014 12:41am Mar 4, 2014 12:41am
Quoting elcurioso
{quote} Not everything is black or white. There is gray. The price movement is led by the big players in the market. I am in favor of technical analysis, bearing in mind the pitfalls that make us the most powerful in search of liquidity. But also attend to the news though, today, seems to only serve as an excuse to move move the price no matter which direction. Humble opinion.
Agreed!

The big players influence market prices by where they place their orders. In so far as these big players are influenced by news, they can influence market prices. However, it is the job of the Market Maker, who runs the business, to decide when and how prices move. And the Market Maker can manipulate prices so as to induce both buyers and sellers to alter their prices. The Market Maker can use "news" as an "excuse" to move prices in a certain direction, or to screw a lot of people and move prices in the opposite direction. It is the Market Maker's business. And it is run to make profits for the Market Maker, above all other reasons.

-tah
  • #66,634
  • Mar 4, 2014 12:47am Mar 4, 2014 12:47am
Quoting JRissa
{quote} {quote} My guess is that AU is going to visit 0.8850 and also 0.9000 Which comes first? I don't know, but I'm guessing that first we go down. That's why I partially closed my long position and shorted twice. I'm planning to add more longs again with better price {image} {image}
My opinion AUDUSD:
Long term bullish. Now? do not know...
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Adaptarse es la clave
  • #66,635
  • Edited 1:00am Mar 4, 2014 12:50am | Edited 1:00am
GA update.

This is more complex than AU.

Entered some more shorts and longs, closed some shorts and longs.

Here is all open position right now and TP targets

Plan is to go UP first before going DOWN. Adding more shorts at better price.
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I know the secret...
  • #66,636
  • Mar 4, 2014 12:56am Mar 4, 2014 12:56am
Quoting elcurioso
{quote} My opinion AUDUSD: Long term bullish. Now? do not know... {image}
My reasons for thinking AU will go more down next before going up.

Recent PVSRA
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I know the secret...
  • #66,637
  • Mar 4, 2014 1:00am Mar 4, 2014 1:00am
Quoting JRissa
GA update. This is more complex than AU. Entered some more shorts and longs, closed some shorts and longs. Here is all open position right now and TP targets {image}
GA Comment

First off, let me say that I do have a short trade running on this one.

My take on GA is that the GBP will weaken = down, and that AUD will strengthen = down, therefore GA == double down! First, however, GBP might strengthen very temporarily (looking for Double Top on GU for example), as the MMs finish positioning themselves to make good profits when they turn GBP around and down.

This is all based on PVSRA on some different pairs involving GBP and AUD. Just keep in mind that we cannot know how price will move next, nor when trends will reverse. And things could change such that the results of PVSRA change.

So, for the time being, my chart of GA is much simpler than JRissa's......

-tah
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  • #66,638
  • Mar 4, 2014 1:03am Mar 4, 2014 1:03am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} GA Comment First off, let me say that I do have a short trade running on this one. My take on GA is that the GBP will weaken = down, and that AUD will strengthen = down, == double down! First, however, GBP might strengthen very temporarily (looking for Double Top on GU for example), as the MMs finish positioning themselves to make good profits when they turn GBP around and down. -tah
Exactly same that I'm thinking!

I'm alloved to hedge, so I'm taking profits both ways +many times per one way during zigzag
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  • #66,639
  • Mar 4, 2014 1:20am Mar 4, 2014 1:20am
AU Comment (Continued)

Here is a picture summarizing a possibility......
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  • #66,640
  • Mar 4, 2014 1:47am Mar 4, 2014 1:47am
It may be bullish in the long term. But for now, I do not see ...
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Adaptarse es la clave
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