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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #43,721
  • Mar 2, 2014 6:09pm Mar 2, 2014 6:09pm
The Yen is a safe haven now. Still, Im gonna sell it at the end of the week
  • #43,722
  • Edited Mar 3, 2014 2:37am Mar 2, 2014 7:07pm | Edited Mar 3, 2014 2:37am
even all of the events happening globally, the Yen hasn't strengthened much. Not exactly a sign of much Yen strength at all.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #43,723
  • Mar 2, 2014 7:23pm Mar 2, 2014 7:23pm
need to watch out for rapid yen rallies. against the USD should be muted but it has a habit of bolting on safe haven buying against the AUD and Euro whenever there big global macro events. it is a bit odd though as this was always based on them running a current account surplus due to their export driven economy. currently however owing to energy imports after fukushima they have a record deficit and their debt to GDP is massive. in conjunction with a host of other miserable domestic data you really wonder why the JPY is a safe haven at all anymore
  • #43,724
  • Mar 3, 2014 12:08am Mar 3, 2014 12:08am
Quoting eliteincome
Hello YEN Masters Would be nice to see this turd float up to 105 Miss the action We need the little grasshoppers to crank up the printing machines
Much as I hate to say it the Yen could be heading for something stronger.
There is a small support here from November last, otherwise it could be down to 100.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #43,725
  • Mar 3, 2014 2:41am Mar 3, 2014 2:41am
Quoting Judge Dent
need to watch out for rapid yen rallies. against the USD should be muted but it has a habit of bolting on safe haven buying against the AUD and Euro whenever there big global macro events. it is a bit odd though as this was always based on them running a current account surplus due to their export driven economy. currently however owing to energy imports after fukushima they have a record deficit and their debt to GDP is massive. in conjunction with a host of other miserable domestic data you really wonder why the JPY is a safe haven at all anymore...
Yen is a safe haven mainly because of its carry trade. When risk off situation arises, risky investments are liquidated and since it has been financed by Japanese Yen, it needs to be paid back with Yen hence there is a lot of buying of Yen.

USD is a safe haven because of its reserve currency status.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #43,726
  • Mar 3, 2014 3:47am Mar 3, 2014 3:47am
101 handle looks inevitable to be tagged.
  • #43,727
  • Mar 3, 2014 4:55am Mar 3, 2014 4:55am
sell USD/JPY if war starts
Come tomorrow, I'll wake up new
  • #43,728
  • Mar 3, 2014 6:33am Mar 3, 2014 6:33am
I'm long off these levels - very strong historical support. I don't think the Yen is the safe haven currency it once was. The battle to increase inflation has put paid to that and there is a strong possibility of an overshoot. Nor is there as strong a link to US equities as there was prior to 2008.

The current unrest in the Ukraine is unlikely to affect this pair much, in my opinion. Russia is just protecting its Black Sea interest and population. Nothing to see here.

Some of these opinions are influenced from here: http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2014/0...tart-the-week/

Good trading. I hope I'm right.
Gone to a better place
  • #43,729
  • Mar 3, 2014 6:48am Mar 3, 2014 6:48am
Putting on a healthy long here at 101.48 before ISM. SL at 101.20. If it really was "the weather", this print has to be better than the low expectations.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #43,730
  • Mar 3, 2014 7:09am Mar 3, 2014 7:09am
Oh yes, and another factor which will help to damp down any escalation of fear. Europe gets a high proportion of its gas from Russia. Is it piped through the Ukraine? Not sure..
Gone to a better place
  • #43,731
  • Mar 3, 2014 7:13am Mar 3, 2014 7:13am
Quoting Citiboy
Putting on a healthy long here at 101.48 before ISM. SL at 101.20. If it really was "the weather", this print has to be better than the low expectations.
Well you were right. But maybe it's not better enough?
Gone to a better place
  • #43,732
  • Mar 3, 2014 7:37am Mar 3, 2014 7:37am
Still looking to me like its heading down. Will have a better idea after market close.
  • #43,733
  • Mar 3, 2014 8:03am Mar 3, 2014 8:03am
Quoting smikester
Oh yes, and another factor which will help to damp down any escalation of fear. Europe gets a high proportion of its gas from Russia. Is it piped through the Ukraine? Not sure..
25% of Europe's gas comes from Russia via the Ukraine, according to something I heard/read over the weekend.

The last time there was a furore over gas was when the Ukraine had not paid its own bill to Russia.
Russia turned-off the gas alleging that the Ukraine was 'dipping' into the supply to Europe.
That was resolved with money from somewhere.....
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #43,734
  • Mar 3, 2014 8:06am Mar 3, 2014 8:06am
Pardon the pun, but apparently Draghi dragged the euro down. All this after the fact analysis and news is bs or what?
  • #43,735
  • Mar 3, 2014 8:13am Mar 3, 2014 8:13am
short 10138sl 15 pips
  • #43,736
  • Mar 3, 2014 8:20am Mar 3, 2014 8:20am
What long hard day on this pair... Not sure we will see much in the way of fireworks... was a confident bull this morning 6am GMT but now have a touch of bear ticking me...
Carpe Vinum.
  • #43,737
  • Mar 3, 2014 4:00pm Mar 3, 2014 4:00pm
This price should hold according to my "kindergardener chart" a few pages back . I feel at worst consolidate. Usd has been pummel by yen strength for the past few months. I think usd cums back. Its a safe haven also...and also one that has been under pressure for 2 months...due to weather reading that have a strong chance of being weather related. When markets realize this up this pair goes. Also i agreed the ukraine thing is being frothed up by the news. Over hyped. Usd is just coiling up to spring out.
  • #43,738
  • Mar 3, 2014 4:03pm Mar 3, 2014 4:03pm
fundamentally long usd vs jpy is the right direction given the one is scaling back easing and the other is going at it full tilt and possibly likely to increase it later in the year. the issue at present is US data, if the non farms on friday are supportive should see strong USD strength across the board
  • #43,739
  • Mar 3, 2014 5:44pm Mar 3, 2014 5:44pm
Trying it from the long side again here, 101.53, SL 101.35 TP open, hoping to hold this through NFP if it works.
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  • #43,740
  • Mar 4, 2014 2:58am Mar 4, 2014 2:58am
Quoting ZA Rhino
What long hard day on this pair... Not sure we will see much in the way of fireworks... was a confident bull this morning 6am GMT but now have a touch of bear ticking me...
Putin has issued a return-to-base apparently, and so the fright factor has receded and markets are recovering.
Of course I missed this, and my long entry orders are now defunct.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
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