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  • #879,921
  • Feb 28, 2014 5:46am Feb 28, 2014 5:46am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} i can hold spike all long on friday, up, down, up and down, all friday long in bed. when i go up i make sure i go down next.
Now I need to lie down in bed for a few hours
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #879,922
  • Feb 28, 2014 5:49am Feb 28, 2014 5:49am
Quoting kuroro001
To some fundies experts...why equities didn't go up alongside with euro? What's the difference between euro and equities for inflation?
because now there will be no need for rate cut next week ... no more free money, good for euro bad for equities
twitter: @gettoefl
  • #879,923
  • Feb 28, 2014 5:50am Feb 28, 2014 5:50am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Question was "why" actually
they lost synch for a while already. the US equities and DAX basically in synch. So between euro and USD, who is going to drop or rise?
If DAX rises, next day the US equities will rise. If DAX rises, euro suppose to drop. If the US equities rise, the USD suppose to drop. then what about euro/USD?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #879,924
  • Feb 28, 2014 5:50am Feb 28, 2014 5:50am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Question was "why" actually
Hi

Maybe that - higher inflation, bullish euro (no rate cut), neutral to bearish for DAX (no cheaper money)?
  • #879,925
  • Feb 28, 2014 5:50am Feb 28, 2014 5:50am
Quoting kuroro001
Wonder if EG can make EU breathe a bit by correcting down
not sure if they will push the crosses so much to move the majors in this instance, given the context
  • #879,926
  • Feb 28, 2014 5:52am Feb 28, 2014 5:52am
Quoting kuroro001
To some fundies experts...why equities didn't go up alongside with euro? What's the difference between euro and equities for inflation?
The short answer is: Higher but controlled inflation is very good for equity markets, since the main contributor to Nominal GDP growth is inflating prices. However, since ECB and media expectation brought quantitative easing into the game. Lower inflation will increase probability of ECB easing monetary policy, increasing the supply of money- thus cheaper to borrow and reinvest.

Higher inflation means ECB sitting down and doing nothing, thus no cheaper money and no reinvesting.
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #879,927
  • Feb 28, 2014 5:52am Feb 28, 2014 5:52am
Quoting kuroro001
To some fundies experts...why equities didn't go up alongside with euro? What's the difference between euro and equities for inflation?
Equity market reacts slowly. BTW, it was last year's data q/q calculation when most of time price struggled around 1.30
This spike due to stopped out who pushed the pair down.
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #879,928
  • Feb 28, 2014 5:53am Feb 28, 2014 5:53am
Hi,

I think that USD should go down during the next 6 months in order to follow its three years cycle low.

John
  • #879,929
  • Feb 28, 2014 5:59am Feb 28, 2014 5:59am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} The short answer is: Higher but controlled inflation is very good for equity markets, since the main contributor to Nominal GDP growth is inflating prices. However, since ECB and media expectation brought quantitative easing into the game. Lower inflation will increase probability of ECB easing monetary policy, increasing the supply of money- thus cheaper to borrow and reinvest. Higher inflation means ECB sitting down and doing nothing, thus no cheaper money and no reinvesting.
I think it's negative deposit rate threat, QE advertisement replaced by it.
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #879,930
  • Feb 28, 2014 5:59am Feb 28, 2014 5:59am
This weekly eu chart tells the whole story... The orange channel contains the weekly bars within going back to 2007. Price is now against the top channel line. A return to the bottom channel line brings eu to parity in 12 to 24 months.

The Blue wedge formation implies a drop to at least 1.21 if the bottom side of the wedge is broken.

Notice also the almost perfect Head and Shoulders pattern being built since September...

I am betting the channel line will not be broken and the bottom side of the wedge will go...

Of course, a weekly close above 138.20 blows my theory out of the water...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EurUsd - Weekly Chart.png Size: 96 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #879,931
  • Feb 28, 2014 6:00am Feb 28, 2014 6:00am
Offcorse Yellens tallk about USD exchange with bitcoin confused many.
Once scalper always scalper
  • #879,932
  • Feb 28, 2014 6:08am Feb 28, 2014 6:08am
Quoting forexings
{quote} I think it's negative deposit rate threat, QE advertisement replaced by it.
Both of them were promoted by the media, and media only ... Here for more details
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...36#post7310936
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #879,933
  • Feb 28, 2014 6:11am Feb 28, 2014 6:11am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} Now I need to lie down in bed for a few hours
  • #879,934
  • Feb 28, 2014 6:14am Feb 28, 2014 6:14am
Thanks for all your answers, appreciated!!
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #879,935
  • Feb 28, 2014 6:15am Feb 28, 2014 6:15am
Quoting freemen
Offcorse Yellens tallk about USD exchange with bitcoin confused many.
So they can shut down more BTC partner site to rob money like LibertyReserve and probably MtGox
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #879,936
  • Feb 28, 2014 6:18am Feb 28, 2014 6:18am
Hello guys ,...

"... excelent movement bulls" or better to say ".... excelent movement bears?" hard to say if it is some kind of strategy of bears to let it run little bit higher to open new shorts. (personal opinion) . But definitely need to say that these movement is against data which were partialy bad. So im thinking about a strategy of bulls or bears.
.... i dont think so that this will move higher because of TL on monthly graph. ( personal opinion) Still holding my shorts and waiting for US session. According to data i will hold or close trades today .

GL guys.
Many green pips guys
  • #879,937
  • Feb 28, 2014 6:18am Feb 28, 2014 6:18am
ken the ea is near 5426 atm........ lets see if thats the start of the 1200 drop soon if it weakens.. atm 5418 is the high
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #879,938
  • Feb 28, 2014 6:21am Feb 28, 2014 6:21am
100% Harmony in most timeframes and finally a sell signal on weekly chart...if 1.3830 region resists (this week) we might have very heavy selling starting next week and for a longer period of time.
Weekly chart attached: .786 retracement of the last swing!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 152 KB
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #879,939
  • Feb 28, 2014 6:24am Feb 28, 2014 6:24am
Quoting gatorinla
ken the ea is near 5426 atm........ lets see if thats the start of the 1200 drop soon if it weakens.. atm 5418 is the high
Just closed it for -10 pips don't look good because E/U is above 1.3780 and A/U rejected from .8970

US and CAD data later might jump start E/U thru E/J and E/CAD

Also I personally don't think the correction for A/J is done which will drag A/U along

There will be another day
  • #879,940
  • Feb 28, 2014 6:26am Feb 28, 2014 6:26am
Quoting chazzle
I'm going for a final push to 820
got flat on that little push to 805 - friday/end of month/news ahead - smaller pending still in at 787
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