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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #43,661
  • Feb 27, 2014 8:03am Feb 27, 2014 8:03am
Right now is not a time to take on new positions. It's either you are already in an existing position from the previous price levels or you are not.

Mixed data has turned this into a battle ground of pure demand/supply and will be heavily influenced on where buying/seller offers are placed at. The news will not be enough to induce overwhelming orders on either side and we have the current DD/SS zones at 101.80 for buyers and 102.40 for sellers.

Currently, it's in between those 2 DD/SS zones with a battle going on, so one would be better off on the sidelines for those who haven't entered as the downside risks are rather large with little reward on both the up/down.


If you must take a position, a risk currency pair like EUR/USD, AUD/USD or NZD/USD will better serve your needs at current levels.
  • #43,662
  • Feb 27, 2014 8:07am Feb 27, 2014 8:07am
Quoting Esssex
Right now is not a time to take on new positions. It's either you are already in an existing position from the previous price levels or you are not. Mixed data has turned this into a battle ground of pure demand/supply and will be heavily influenced on where buying/seller offers are placed at. The news will not be enough to induce overwhelming orders on either side and we have the current DD/SS zones at 101.80 for buyers and 102.40 for sellers. Currently, it's in between those 2 DD/SS zones with a battle going on, so one would be better off on the...
Agreed but for the past few days buyers have been picking up on the dips. Price is off the weekly support, may be loking to retake the weekly pivot. Between 101.8 and 102.40 is anyones guess but if it gets the pivot again I can see beyond 102.60 which is a launch point and stops will get hit up there.
  • #43,663
  • Feb 27, 2014 8:13am Feb 27, 2014 8:13am
Be all that as it may, eventually price action will have to keep up with what;s actually going on on the ground: stocks lower, bonds higher, yields lower, U/J lower.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

I do appreciate the excellent analysis and input very much, though.

  • #43,664
  • Feb 27, 2014 8:25am Feb 27, 2014 8:25am
Quoting Esssex
Right now is not a time to take on new positions. It's either you are already in an existing position from the previous price levels or you are not. Mixed data has turned this into a battle ground of pure demand/supply and will be heavily influenced on where buying/seller offers are placed at. The news will not be enough to induce overwhelming orders on either side and we have the current DD/SS zones at 101.80 for buyers and 102.40 for sellers. Currently, it's in between those 2 DD/SS zones with a battle going on, so one would be better off on the...
Another guru preacher, telling us what is and what is not, what will and will not happen, what we are to do and what we are not to do, as if the world is black and white, only he understands it, and we're all little kids who are in need of a firm education from "someone who knows".
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #43,665
  • Feb 27, 2014 8:27am Feb 27, 2014 8:27am
perhaps some support now in the 101.80/90 area, wonder if its worth a punt on return...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #43,666
  • Feb 27, 2014 8:30am Feb 27, 2014 8:30am
Quoting PayTheLimit
perhaps some support now in the 101.80/90 area, wonder if its worth a punt on return...
Hard to say before the cut at the same time Ms Yellen testifies so could be chop here and there
  • #43,667
  • Feb 27, 2014 8:33am Feb 27, 2014 8:33am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Hard to say before the cut at the same time Ms Yellen testifies so could be chop here and there
just took a better look at the hourly, and I think its a pass...could be a target for my shorts if I get any 102.33's off...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #43,668
  • Feb 27, 2014 8:38am Feb 27, 2014 8:38am
Maybe it is more proof that fundamentals mean absolutely nothing any more.

Just trade the technicals. Seems to work better for me.
:/
  • #43,669
  • Feb 27, 2014 8:40am Feb 27, 2014 8:40am
fundamentals show the destination. Technical shows the process
  • #43,670
  • Feb 27, 2014 8:44am Feb 27, 2014 8:44am
Quoting nuubtrader
fundamentals show the destination. Technical shows the process
You say so. But from now on, I am going to totally ignore fundamentals and only trade off my charts. U/J should be plunging right now according to all the bad economic data. It will later, there's no doubt in my mind. But I could have picked up some pips instead of looking at drawdowns if I had simply traded from the chart and ignored Draghi and Merkel and Yellen and Our Gang.

  • #43,671
  • Feb 27, 2014 8:44am Feb 27, 2014 8:44am
Quoting PayTheLimit
sell some at 102.33, risk 102.43...
gonna make it 102.36/46, for 101.96 now..
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #43,672
  • Feb 27, 2014 8:50am Feb 27, 2014 8:50am
It's all just crapped up. Better luck next month.
  • #43,673
  • Feb 27, 2014 9:45am Feb 27, 2014 9:45am
Businesses in Japan frustrated by lack of progress in TPP talks

http://mainichi.jp/english/english/n...bu022000c.html
  • #43,674
  • Edited 10:06am Feb 27, 2014 9:50am | Edited 10:06am
Quoting EmeraldEyes
Off the front of today's Daily FX Update from Scotiabank: 'RISK AVERSION SUPPORTS THE USD & JPY'


edit: to be read in context with this...
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #43,675
  • Feb 27, 2014 10:02am Feb 27, 2014 10:02am
Quoting Orly
{quote} You say so. But from now on, I am going to totally ignore fundamentals and only trade off my charts. U/J should be plunging right now according to all the bad economic data. It will later, there's no doubt in my mind. But I could have picked up some pips instead of looking at drawdowns if I had simply traded from the chart and ignored Draghi and Merkel and Yellen and Our Gang.
You are quite right when you are trading for today. If your positions are targeting 50 pips or less then there is no point in looking at anything except your chart; and also the economic calendar to make sure you are not about to be bitten by some unexpected GDP figures or something.

On longer TFs the chart is still highly important, but there also come the fundamentals. Your targets will be more than 100 pips and range trading will come from the chart but trend trading will come from fundamentals (and the chart). Fundamentals tell you that UJ is not going back to 75 this year.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #43,676
  • Feb 27, 2014 10:04am Feb 27, 2014 10:04am
Quoting Esssex
Right now is not a time to take on new positions. ...
Nice biography...
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #43,677
  • Feb 27, 2014 10:11am Feb 27, 2014 10:11am
Right now is great shorting opportunity IMO! We have a downtrend (a bit choppy) in place, price has wound up preceding hours and closed very bearish on previous bar lower. THIS CLOSE was very signifcant in that the level it closed below was also 102 BRN confluence and the confluence with this very well respected TL you can see on my attachment. Not only that, price has now retraced back up for a even tighter stop allowance.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Selection_006.png Size: 17 KB
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #43,678
  • Feb 27, 2014 12:48pm Feb 27, 2014 12:48pm
Good shorting opportunity indeed, as we are the end of a horizontal triangle, which ends B wave in a ABC Zig Zag. Signals point to beginning of the C wave. I am in on a short at 102.115 SL 102.820 TP 98.140 trade length possibly 20-30 days
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy227.jpg Size: 88 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy227LT.jpg Size: 90 KB
  • #43,679
  • Feb 27, 2014 1:01pm Feb 27, 2014 1:01pm
Quoting leomel85
Good shorting opportunity indeed, as we are the end of a horizontal triangle, which ends B wave in a ABC Zig Zag. Signals point to beginning of the C wave. I am in on a short at 102.115 SL 102.820 TP 98.140 trade length possibly 20-30 days {image} {image}
what indicators are you using for that fxcm station?
  • #43,680
  • Feb 27, 2014 1:29pm Feb 27, 2014 1:29pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Another guru preacher, telling us what is and what is not, what will and will not happen, what we are to do and what we are not to do, as if the world is black and white, only he understands it, and we're all little kids who are in need of a firm education from "someone who knows".
Sorry you feel that way about people sharing market views and trading strategies on a forum dedicated to trading.

Perhaps the Bloomberg comments section is where you should be? I'm sure they don't have "gurus", talk about market views or trading strategies and could just be right up your alley.
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