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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #43,621
  • Feb 27, 2014 1:45am Feb 27, 2014 1:45am
sell some at 102.33, risk 102.43...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #43,622
  • Feb 27, 2014 1:46am Feb 27, 2014 1:46am
Quoting Mr.C
{quote} {quote} Hey Mr. PayTheLimit. Looks like we're having the second scenario in action. SL's wiped out and we're back to continue the south move. Did you re-enter?
just entered some pendings...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #43,623
  • Feb 27, 2014 1:47am Feb 27, 2014 1:47am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} just entered some pendings...
I see. Decided to swap the UJ for Geppy myself. Good luck today!
Twitter: MrC_Forex ; Facebook: /pages/MrC-Forex/197693770247397
  • #43,624
  • Feb 27, 2014 1:48am Feb 27, 2014 1:48am
Quoting Mr.C
{quote} I see. Decided to swap the UJ for Geppy myself. Good luck today!

same to you bro...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #43,625
  • Feb 27, 2014 1:58am Feb 27, 2014 1:58am
Quoting PayTheLimit
I'd like to buy some near 101.52/62, if the chance presnts itself...

make it 101.61 bid, 101.51 stops...now I have them surrounded...bbl,gl, PTL..
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #43,626
  • Feb 27, 2014 2:00am Feb 27, 2014 2:00am
It will take some time (92.xx) for people to realize that 2 years bullish trend is over in this pair.
  • #43,627
  • Feb 27, 2014 2:00am Feb 27, 2014 2:00am
Quoting hathor
Until we reach 103.000-103.600 and 100.750 is intact, I look for long possibilities. 102.200 looks promising...bulls comfort zone is over 102.000 just like in the past few days. (so we might destroy that just for make sure there is more sellers around when we start to pop up...)
happening right now imo
f(z)=z2+c
  • #43,628
  • Feb 27, 2014 2:01am Feb 27, 2014 2:01am
Sold 101.97, SLs scattered between 102.10 and 102.28
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #43,629
  • Feb 27, 2014 2:05am Feb 27, 2014 2:05am
Quoting nobodysman
It will take some time (92.xx) for people to realize that 2 years bullish trend is over in this pair.
is it?
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #43,630
  • Feb 27, 2014 2:12am Feb 27, 2014 2:12am
I've watched the market for the last 6 weeks. And the market supported my charts. I think it is over. We will not see again 105.xx for the following 2 years I believe.
  • #43,631
  • Feb 27, 2014 2:14am Feb 27, 2014 2:14am
We are ~100pips from the bottom (100.750) and from the target (103.000)...in the middle.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #43,632
  • Feb 27, 2014 2:19am Feb 27, 2014 2:19am
Quoting nobodysman
I've watched the market for the last 6 weeks. And the market supported my charts. I think it is over. We will not see again 105.xx for the following 2 years I believe.
in that case we disagree, watched and traded the market for the last 2 years, looking to re-enter major longs in the 98-100 area
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #43,633
  • Feb 27, 2014 2:23am Feb 27, 2014 2:23am
Nobody knows where this is going in the medium let alone the long term.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #43,634
  • Feb 27, 2014 2:48am Feb 27, 2014 2:48am
I do my last comment about mid-long term. Only time will tell where it goes. MY arguments are:

As a normal investor: What's been offered to me is:

1. BOJ supports weak Yen.
2. US stocks make new highs.
3. Yen is in a bearish trend.

As a paranormal investor: What I think is:

1. BOJ is not market maker, they can only try to influence the market. Yen can go anywhere it wants to go.
2. Although US stocks make new highs USD/JPY doesn't make new highs.
3. China and Japan will not hold their US bonds forever. They will sell them when they need.
4. There is a huge divergence in weekly chart which happens rarely in a decade.
  • #43,635
  • Feb 27, 2014 2:51am Feb 27, 2014 2:51am
why all the yen pairs fell? can someone point me in the right direction?
Come tomorrow, I'll wake up new
  • #43,636
  • Edited 3:09am Feb 27, 2014 2:55am | Edited 3:09am
Risk-off in anticipation of wars?

Sell everything buy JPY as safe haven

GOLD

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  • #43,637
  • Feb 27, 2014 3:28am Feb 27, 2014 3:28am
Quoting Ken A
Risk-off in anticipation of wars? Sell everything buy JPY as safe haven GOLD {image}
Gold not moved yet, still at ~1332.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #43,638
  • Feb 27, 2014 3:32am Feb 27, 2014 3:32am
Quoting Ken A
Risk-off in anticipation of wars? Sell everything buy JPY as safe haven GOLD {image}
Why you saying in anticipation of wars? Think we'd see a crude oil spike in that case. This did seem like it was coming though. XXX/JPY are all wanting to correct at this point. Been a while since risk off.
  • #43,639
  • Feb 27, 2014 3:58am Feb 27, 2014 3:58am
wild as usual.. ej make me crazy this day... lol
the true currencies here is patience and react precisely
  • #43,640
  • Feb 27, 2014 4:17am Feb 27, 2014 4:17am
Quoting nobodysman
I do my last comment about mid-long term. Only time will tell where it goes. MY arguments are: As a normal investor: What's been offered to me is: 1. BOJ supports weak Yen. 2. US stocks make new highs. 3. Yen is in a bearish trend. As a paranormal investor: What I think is: 1. BOJ is not market maker, they can only try to influence the market. Yen can go anywhere it wants to go. 2. Although US stocks make new highs USD/JPY doesn't make new highs. 3. China and Japan will not hold their US bonds forever. They will sell them when they need. 4. There...
I for one don't think that the JPY should have this much strength if you consider the fundamentals of Japan.

The only reason propping the JPY throughout the years have always been the relative perception of the JPY as a safe haven but we have seen through the years that there is really no such thing as a safe haven and that the JPY is being propped up only by market sentiment.


Some key reasons for JPY weakness:
1) Cost-push inflation in Japan not demand-pull as desired
2) Stagnant wages of Japan
3) Inability to rebalance consumption as growth model
4) Presence of emerging markets competing for export market share
5) High debt levels


The US while weak will have probably be able to put a stop to an increase in monetary supply via QE by this year as long as they put emphasis on unemployment numbers which will be stabilized due to the drop in labor participation. That said, the numbers released will paint a very rosy picture of US which will continue to attract inflows at least for this year.


US weakness will probably follow in 2015 - 2016 when the full scale impact of labor participation, be it from an increase in participation or a drop in consumption but I won't be betting on that right now.
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